The Outlook Moving Forward: Indiana

Coming off their 45-31 win at Purdue, the Spartans travel to Bloomington to face the Indiana Hoosiers at 3:30 on ESPN.

Offense

Anytime the Offense scores over 45-points a game as they have now in five out of six, the final result should not be in doubt. And when the Offense gains over 530-yards and nearly 300 on the ground, you would expect an easy Spartan win. You don’t expect those kind of numbers to correlate with a near-nail biter of a victory. Sometimes it’s only a timely turnover that can save those nails. That’s kind of what happened to this unit Saturday afternoon.

Connor Cook’s lone mistake and the Spartans’ only turnover of the day turned out to be the first of a “three act drama,” recapped in detail below, which reversed the entire mojo of the contest in favor of Purdue. At the time, the Offense was driving to put the game away for good, already up 38-17. They were primed to extend their lead beyond 3-scores. Cook had been better than solid to that point and he couldn’t have known what was going to happen after the turnover, but he simply committed a critical error at the wrong time. “Why are you throwing that pass?” EPSN analyst Ed Cunningham said immediately after the play, pointing out that if it had been thrown from inside the pocket, it would have been a pick-6 for Purdue.

“Cook played very well with the exception of one play,” Mark Dantonio essentially countered immediately after the game. They both seem right looking back, but the Offense barely made it past mid-field on its two drives following the pick, and didn’t manage the clock very well. They did not finish the game how they hoped to, and no one really stepped to make a play there late. Though they are putting up record numbers, there is still another gear and a half or so that the Offense can find.

There were big plays earlier on though, and once again Tony Lippett raised his game. A couple more big games from Lippett and he will be an odds on favorite to end up All-Big Ten. When you catch 7 balls for 138, one of them a long touchdown, you’re pushing to be recognized as the next dominant Spartan wide out. We’ve been waiting for the next great Wide Out here at Wide Receiver U, and Lippett is starting to make a real push to join that list.

Aaron Burbridge is also asserting himself as a budding receiving threat. The highly recruited Michigan native showed flashes as a Freshman on a team that didn’t move the ball well, did not have the 2013 he was looking for as others stepped up and commanded more attention, but he’s found a new gear here so far this October. Teams will no doubt give Lippett extra attention from this point so someone else at the Wide Receiver position will get opportunities for the Spartans. If it’s not Burbridge, there’s a handful of other guys who want the ball too, so the talented Junior need not consider a dash of complacency. If anything, he should look to what Lippett’s done in the last year as inspiration.

Purdue is not a good football team and does not have a good Defense. Were they better than we expected? Oh yea. They may well have played their best game of the season last Saturday. But the Offense put up the kind of numbers you would hope for when you’re the defending Big Ten champion, and Purdue is still a couple years away from making a Bowl game again. Indiana is still rather void of Defense, again. They’ve given up 31.8 points per game so far this year and over 2500 yards to date. They are 79th nationally in Total Defense at this point. The Spartans should once again have a chance to score 45 or more this week. This unit has already set a few Spartan records through six games and it looks like a bunch more may fall before the season’s final whistle.

Defense

This unit was up and down again, continuing the relatively dramatic rollercoaster ride when you compare this unit to 2012 and 2013. Let’s stop doing that at this point. You had some all-time personalities and performers on those squads, namely Max Bullough, Denicos Allen, and Darqueze Dennard. The current group has a lot of talent too and some very good football players to send out there, but there was something about those guys that separated their Defenses from the others we’ve seen under Mark Dantonio. While we’re on the topic, the Defenses under Dantonio will go down as the overall best from any Coach in school history. It seems safe to say Coach D will be around till 2020 or so, and should probably end up with another truly dominating stretch like we saw in the past few years. This unit is still adjusting to the absence of past cornerstones Bullough, Allen, and Dennard.

They shut Purdue down to just 3 points for 30-minutes of play. They allowed 28 in the other 30-minutes. You can’t get much more up and down than that. They created two turnovers, the big one of course being the clinching interception for 6 from Darien Harris. Harris played pretty well again Saturday, but must have taken a little extra pride in making the play to lock up the “W.” Purdue had all the momentum, were technically only a play away from improbably tying it up, and Harris stepped up converted the game closing opportunity. That’s a moment he and this unit can build on as they look for steadier waters for all 60-minutes in Bloomington next week.

To their credit, the Defense tried to provide the first punch in what could’ve been a one-two knockout combination punch after Shilique Calhoun was once again around a fumble. Up 38-17 with the Offense starting at midfield, almost everyone watching was expecting the Spartans to score again to close the game out for good. Six plays later and driving just inside the Purdue 30, Cook threw the interception and the momentum flipped back dramatically. That wasn’t on the Defense.

This week with the IU Quarterback position looking rather because starter Nate Sudfeld out, this unit’s top focus couldn’t be clearer: stop Tevin Coleman. Coleman is arguably the best back in the Big Ten, and has made the most noise thus far in 2014. He leads the country in rushing (1,060 yards), yards per game (176.7), all-purpose yards (199.0), and perhaps most notably, big plays. Coleman has nine gains of 40-yards or more, and four of over 60-yards. If you want to sound smart when talking about this matchup as we approach the weekend, just tell your mates to watch for how many big ones Coleman breaks. And oh yea, he’s 3rd in the country with 11 rushing touchdowns so far. Expect the Spartans to keep an eye on #8 in crimson and cream.

Remember 2012, when Indiana jumped up 17-0? MSU rallied behind Andrew Maxwell and the Defense shut IU out in the 2nd Half completely. Don’t think Kevin Wilson and the Hoosiers have forgotten. In what looked Wilson’s sure fire signature win, the Hoosiers did their part in a complete Offensive meltdown. Don’t think they’ve forgotten. They’ve probably have had October 18th circled on their calendar for a long time. MSU is the reigning Big Ten champion and bully of the league these days. Nothing would satisfy Wilson and Hoosiers more than revenge for letting one get away from them in 2012. That loss changed the trajectory of that still recovering program. Regardless of Sudfeld’s absence, expect the Hoosiers to bring everything they’ve got this weekend.Â

Special Teams

The most interesting element of a fake is the time in the game that it’s called. There’s only so many options for a fake Punt or a Fake Field Goal. We haven’t seen anything that new from a fake in a pretty long time. There’s not many teams getting duped as badly as MSU did the Wolverines in 1997, for example. You remember the famous fake named “Ranger” that made it look like MSU could really do something to the eventual National Champions that year.

Mark Dantonio has called fakes at odd times before, and they’ve worked. Whether we look back to his most famous call against Notre Dame, or one against his top rival while the line of scrimmage was in his own territory, he’s not afraid of the wildcard. Saturday he probably misfired in calling the fake punt for a couple reasons. MSU was losing momentum by the snap and the Spartans were only up two scores.

“Fake didn’t work,” Dantonio summed up immediately after the game. It was a bad time and spot to call one. When you’re up 14 and positioned around your 30-yard line with half a quarter to play, coming off a turnover that Purdue had converted for a Touchdown, it’s probably not a preferred scenario to roll the dice. Also, there didn’t seem to be that much of an upside if MSU converted it. There was a clear downside for failing, and Purdue pointed that out just four plays later. You can’t convert them all, but that one never should have been called at that place and time, regardless of the result.

The Special Teams really didn’t stabilize as we’d hoped coming off Nebraska. Sadler only punted twice but was outstanding when needed, dropping the final punt to the 5-yard line. Michael Geiger missed another kick that looked left the entire way. He has now missed in successive weeks and is not the same kicker her was a year ago. That’s not to say he won’t rebound and get much better, because you should expect that he will. But right now he’s about one miss away from being a little shaky for the first time. Neither Kings nor Shelton did too much returning kicks, so look for more from these dangerous options as second half of the season plays out.

Overall

There are good wins, great wins, and borderline bad ones. The same can be said for losses, but it can be pretty hard to try to sell a “good loss.” It’s not impossible, but it’s tough. A borderline bad win is probably a fair description of the Purdue game based on expectations and the fact that the Spartans went “0 for 2” when they had a chance to put the Boilers away for good. A win is a win, we can all concede. But let’s take one more quick look at what happened last week.

MSU was up 21-3 just about 5-minutes into the 2nd Quarter, in position to levy the 1st Half knockout. They didn’t, and Purdue fought back. “They closed it in the 2nd quarter a little bit, and made it a game,” Coach D described immediately after the game during his locker room radio. Purdue narrowed the gap to 24-10 at the Half.

MSU came out of the Half with a purpose and owned the 3rd Quarter 14-0, making it 38-17 for the game. They pushed Purdue back against the ropes again, ready to be finished.  When Austin Appleby coughed it up as he was chased around by Shilique Calhoun, once MSU recovered you thought you knew what was coming next.

Instead Connor Cook soon threw the interception to begin “three act drama” that ended up in a massive boost of momentum for the Boilers. The second act came in the form of a shocking 52-yard TD run from Akeem Hunt. The third act was somewhat self inflicted when Dantonio decided to fake the Punt with under 9:00 to play. With a short field and more momentum than they’ve had in a couple years, three plays and an MSU penalty was all Petey Purdue needed to cut the lead to 38-31. As in 7-points!

With a chance to close the game out, all the Offense could muster was 2-First Downs and 8-plays before punting again. You were probably thinking about the ghosts of Purdue past. They’ve done more than enough damage in the past, especially the 90s, to cover their share. But the fine Sadler punt stuck young Appleby deep in his own end and coming out of a Timeout on a 3rd and 8, Darien Harris made the play. Harris didn’t let it hit his hands and pop out, he didn’t miss the ball all together, he reached out and grabbed it, then took it to the house to wrap it up for good at 45-31.

The story of the Purdue win points out that the Spartans are missing a killer instinct right now. Until proven otherwise, we should not expect one to appear. That’s not an all out indictment on the 2014 Spartans. You can still win a lot of games, if not the Big Ten Championship without one. “It’s one thing to win going away, it’s another thing to win when momentum starts sliding the other way,” Coach D pointed out immediately after the Purdue game ended. He believes without a doubt that this team is growing through learning how to hang on to these types of games that could easily have slipped away. “The more these things happen, the stronger we grow…that’s what champions are able to do.”

Most teams across the country will never develop a killer instinct. But let’s be real here, if this team is going to seriously contend for a Playoff slot, they’re not going to get there if they can’t put teams away when they’ve got them down  more than two scores (16-points). If Purdue can turn what should’ve been a blowout into driving with a chance to tie the game late in the 4th, you can’t expect that MSU will simply roll over a shorthanded Indiana.

Instead of worrying how many the Spartans need to win by this week in Bloomington, let’s stick to whether they can beat Indiana first. The Hoosiers are in deep trouble without Nate Sudfeld, but not out of it because of Tevin Campbell and some other quick skill players for Indiana. And don’t think for a second that Indiana isn’t fired up to get MSU back in their barn. Remember 2012? Without the Andrew Maxwell led comeback, the Spartans would’ve lost there and been sitting at home during Bowl season. Kevin Wilson and company want MSU badly, and after the last two weeks they have to be more confident that they have a shot.

Had MSU finished off the blowouts against Nebraska and Purdue, Indiana would already be intimidated and likely quick to lie down if MSU got off to another fast start. Instead MSU better expect everything and more from a Hoosier team that will be supremely motivated by the one they let get away in 2012. They might see this as their day of reckoning, and if MSU can’t find a killer instinct and execute for all 60 in Bloomington Saturday evening, they could be in for a very rocky ride home.

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. If Brady Hoke decided to change Offensive Coordinators after last season, he should probably be held accountable for Michigan’s practically disastrous Offense to this point in 2014. Besides leading the country most of the year in turnovers (as in committing them), they are 105th in the country in yards per game right now. Some of us believe the change at OC wasn’t all Hoke’s call. If it wasn’t, he should probably get another year to see if things can turn around. Ideally for the Blue, with a new set of position coaches mixed in.
2. You’re not the only one that’s thought this College Football season has a whole lot of crazy going on. More than ever it appears that any team can take anyone on any given day. We can thank ole Brett Bielema for leading the charge last weekend. Last year Arkansas looked like they couldn’t beat many MAC teams, but Saturday they outplayed Alabama and could’ve sent the Tide to a surprising second straight loss. Another set of odd coaching decisions by Bielema later on was probably the difference in the Razorbacks killer 1-point loss. Hold on to your hats, it’s only mid-October and there’s a lot more wild ones sure to unfold.
3. Why did Purdue look like Iowa playing on the road last week? I’m all for the occasional special uniform mix and match, but I don’t think you should be able to change your primary color scheme to another color all together. Thank you, Purdue. You’ve shown us how far is going too far when it comes to the uniform shuffle. You can bring attention to whatever the cause without looking like you had a laundry accident with your uniforms.
4. Boy did Penn St. get hosed Saturday night after they perfectly executed an onside kick in the final moments at Michigan. The Lion that was whistled for being offsides wasn’t close enough to being ahead of the line to deserve a flag being tossed. Though it should’ve never been thrown, how about picking it up after realizing with the other officials that he wasn’t offsides? Though still a bad loss for PSU with QB Christian Hackenberg looking more like a 4th round than anywhere near a 1st round NFL pick, that call was brutal and is the type that sometimes makes people wonder about what influences officiating.