The Outlook Moving Forward: Michigan

The Outlook Moving Forward: Michigan

Coming off their 56-17 win at Indiana, the Spartans return home to face the Michigan Wolverines at 3:30 on ABC.

Offense

It did not take long to realize the Indiana game might come down to whether the MSU Offense could out score the Hoosier Offense. That’s how good things looked for IU during the early part of the 2nd Quarter. At that point the MSU Offense was temporarily out of rhythm, but from the time (5:25 of the 2nd) Indiana took the 17-14 lead, the Spartans flipped the script and went on to own the rest of the day.  The Offense led the way.

We talked in past weeks about the leadership upgrade this team could use and the opportunity created for Connor Cook to grow as a leader. He did just that Saturday during the momentum changing moment of the game. After the Spartans took the lead back at 21-14, Indiana went 3 and Out and MSU had about 2:33 left before the Half, starting at their own 32.

In that situation, with MSU set to get the ball back after the Half, Cook recognized the importance of protecting the ball first and erring on the side of burning the clock down to double zeros. It was no time to get loose with it and chance flipping the momentum back to the Hoosiers before the Half. After crossing midfield on a 2nd and 3 from the IU 37, confusion struck the unit up front and an 11-yard completion to Tony Lippett was erased by a big time flag. Nick Hill and Kodi Kieler committed a chop block on that play that sent MSU backwards 15-yards, setting up a more dangerous 2nd and 18 from the MSU 48. Talk about a sudden climate change. The flag cost the Offense 26 yards. The Hoosiers were thinking they had found an edge.

Instead, Cook took over and led like you would hope a returning Rose Bowl MVP Quarterback would. He settled the huddle and threw three straight completions to set up a 1st and 10 at the IU 14. Then staying assertive with the momentum burst the Offense had built, he threw to Macgarrett Kings (who had a big day) for a Touchdown to make it 28-17. That was a far cry from how you thought the Halftime score might end up after the Chop Block foul. Credit Cook for stepping up and leading when his team needed it more than the final score would suggest. Before that point, MSU looked as relatively shaky as it has in a while on Offense. After that they simply rolled all over the Hoosiers like a highway paving team for the rest of the day.

Nick Hill has had a bit of an up and down Spartan career. Most players do, but most don’t find the level of success Hill achieved early on, and has again here in 2014. After a 2013 that had to be frustrating, Hill carved out another role on this team and has made the most of it through seven games so far. One of his favorites matchups arrives this week for the last time. Hill has looked quicker and more decisive from the 2014 get go and now is running with more confidence than he’s ever shown in Green and White.  That's a good sign for the coming November and push for this team to play their best football.

Hill’s numbers at Indiana could be a little deceiving considering the 76-yards he got on one huge run, but when you look at how he ran the ball and the authority he ran with darting around and through the Hoosier Defense, it was an impressive performance. Ideally MSU will have three backs ready at all times who can contribute, and that should seem possible in theory. Yet, it still seems doubtful we will see all three Running Backs unless a score is starting to get into the blowout range. Hill was not perfect as we discussed above (chop block), but he was outstanding. Still, we can project that the best MSU Offense would be the one that includes Delton Williams when tough yards are needed, power is necessary, or if Jeremy Langford needs a break.

Playing your arch rival at home should always be an advantage for an Offense. Michigan’s Defense has been put in awful situations this year thanks to the rash of turnovers that soured the 2014 season in Ann Arbor before the leaves even started to really change color. MSU’s Offense is on the way to setting records and features playmakers all over the field. They again have a strong enough Offensive Line to give a wide variety of plays enough time to fully develop. Unless something dramatic happens that leads to around three or more MSU turnovers Saturday, the Spartans should again score a bunch of points this weekend. Though you shouldn’t count on them scored 45 or more for a sixth time this season, they should have good look at that passing that number for the sixth time already.

Defense

This unit got burned in the 1st Half for 206 rushing yards. There’s no way to spin that number, nor any reason to do so. Maybe it’s time to reset the phrase this article has used for years now, “you are as good as your record says you are.” As you probably recall, that premise came from Bill Parcells, who has probably recited that concept to three different people already today.  (If you want to discuss it with me directly Mr. Parcells, give Spartan Nation a call).  It attaches to the Spartan Defense’s 1st Half performance last week, and the 2nd Half results too.

Tevin Coleman, unlike Ameer Abdullah, was as good as advertised. Coleman knew MSU would be gunning for him even more since Nate Sudfeld had to be replaced by a Quarterback that had never taken a snap. Early on, Coleman didn’t seem to mind. For the day he ended up with 132-yards, 65 of them coming from one play. Credit the Spartan Defense for tightening up in the 2nd Half, big time. The Spartan Offense did its best to slow Coleman down too by eating up a big hunk of clock early in the half, owning the time of possession. Coleman was again effective, but like the rest of the Hoosier Offense the 2nd Half, essentially put on "mute."

As the Defense tightened up, it got difficult for the very young Hoosier Quarterback, Zander Diamont. He was pretty quickly made to look like it was his first College Football game in the final thirty minutes. Indiana didn’t make it past their 47-yard line the rest of the day, and ended up with just 217-yards rushing total. Spartan math tells us that meant 11-yards rushing for the entire 2nd Half. Whatever adjustments and speeches were made at the Half, they worked. I’m sure all Halftime communications were delivered in locker room appropriate language with a deferential tone. This unit let the team down a bit in the first Half, giving up 17 to a team led by a brand new play caller, but cleaned up nicely and hopefully turned the corner for good as the stretch run begins this week.

This Defense likes playing against Michigan. They love playing Devin Gardner. From his first snaps against the Spartans, Gardner has basically been running for his life back there when he’s lined up at the Quarterback position. While Garnder’s health is still in question, we don’t know much about Shane Morris, the unfortunately famous southpaw that is supposed to revive the pro-style Quarterback position at Michigan. It hasn’t happened yet, and the Wolverines have turned the ball over more than just about anyone in the country for most of the year. The Spartans should apply more pressure than Michigan has seen all year this week.

Now that we’ve seen the snarl return to the Spartan Dawgs, things should be interesting again in the Michigan backfield Saturday evening. Marcus Rush and Shilique Calhoun will be doing their thing outside, and Michigan doesn’t have much to work with on the ground so we probably won’t see anything close to 200 yards rushing for the Blue by Halftime. Ed Davis, Darien Harris, and the plentiful fleet of Spartan Linebackers may try to make their way through that line of Blue into Gardner’s personal space as well. If things go as planned this unit should have its best looking day of the year in the game that means the most to this program right now. Michigan’s Offense just does not look to match up well with the Spartans this year. They are not as talented, not as deep, not as fast, and not as strong, and not a good of a unit.

Special Teams

Michael Geiger missed another Filed Goal try last week and is now standing on a bit of shaky ground, though Mark Dantonio does not sound concerned. “I'm not concerned about him. I think he's a very confident player, and I think he's a very good kicker,” he said Sunday night when looking back at Indiana. It’s not that Geiger is in danger of losing his job, it’s that he doesn’t look as confident out there as he did last year. He could use some steadier waters heading towards November play.

The Indiana miss wasn’t really his fault, however. The damage was done before he approached the ball. First, the Spartans were on the “off” hash for a right-footer. That’s not an excuse, but we do see more College kickers miss from the “off” hash than the hash on the side of the field that matches their kicking foot. More important than the hash the kick was set on, the snap on the 1st Quarter try was awful. It was kind of impressive that holder Mike Sadler got it in position quick enough for Geiger to even get a foot on it. But his rhythm was off from the errant snap and you could tell his alignment was set off as well after he took his second step. Predictably from that point, the ball missed left all the way. The entire Field Goal unit needs to tighten up because there could come a time when the Spartans need the kicking game to be the difference. No one wants to undo a season’s worth of work on that kind of play.

Mike Sadler looks back to steady again, but will have all eyes on him this week for a potential fake at some point in the day. With all kinds of Blue looking at @FauxPelini’s nemesis Saturday, I would keep an eye elsewhere if you’re trying to spot a fake out there. Yet, Sadler can make a real difference if he pins Michigan deep in their end to start a drive. Just look at what happened against Purdue. Since Michigan is currently prone to turnovers and has had serious issues with the MSU Defense in recent years, don’t sleep on the punts this week. They could set up some fireworks.

Overall

After a decent start and a dangerous looking dip in the 2nd Quarter, the Spartans took command of Indiana and left no doubt which program was contending for another Big Ten Championship. They ran off 42 straight points and looked how you would expect one of the nation’s best programs to look after recovering from an early scare. The top programs steady the waters when they face some early heat, then blow past an overmatched opponent after that storm had passed. That’s what the Spartans did Saturday, and that's a positive step forward this program can take into future years of play.

They knew they were better than they looked for the first 20 minutes of play, then they proved it. As the final minute of the 56-17 victory clicked down, you could see the sense of satisfaction on Mark Dantonio’s face as they began the transition into Michigan week.  I don't know that we've ever seen such a look in that kind of scenario from him before.  That’s where Michigan State Football is in 2014, positioned again to contend for Championships. Michigan Football is not.

Michigan-Michigan St. is the most bitter rivalry in College Football. It has been for years, it will be for years to come. It’s not the biggest rivalry in the game and maybe not even list nationally in the top ten since you’re talking about a Midwest state that is often looked down upon by others for a variety of different reasons. There was a time when MSU was the most powerful College Football program in the country. There was also a time that Michigan was among the top programs in the entire country. Those days are long gone since we now have around 40 seriously competitive College Football programs across the country. That wasn’t the case in the glory days of the Great Lakes’ state programs. No one will again dominate the sport like either program did in its best days, not even you know who.

Just because the Wolverines’ 2014 has nearly become an unmitigated disaster to this point, don’t think Brady Hoke’s bunch is going to bus up to East Lansing and lay down on the Spartan Stadium turf for a third straight East Lansing beat down.  Expect they will bring everything they’ve got and “play up” above the level we expect to see from them right now. MSU has destroyed Michigan so badly in Spartan Stadium during the Hoke era that it feels like something has to even out a bit. Saturday, that could come in the quality of the Wolverines’ performance. That doesn’t mean Michigan will beat the Spartans, or even make it very close since they are clearly not as good as MSU right now, but it would be a mistake to think MSU will have Devin Gardner facing 4th and 40 again and again on Saturday. Expect Michigan to look better than they have all year this week, but still to be defeated.

While predicting an MSU win might not be saying much, these two programs may now be separated as much in the favor of MSU as they were during the darkest days of the post-Saban era, the other way around. If you look at it honestly, MSU has outplayed Michigan in every matchup game during the days of Dantonio. In the ’07 loss, one incredibly lucky bounce afforded the seeds for an improbable comeback to grow.  That game still stings Spartan Nation to this day. In 2012 as you watched the game, you kind of knew what was coming and felt sick about it because the Spartans could not move the ball well enough to score 13-points. Yet, you felt that MSU had the better team that day. Since then it’s been all Green, so what about a little Spartan complacency setting in?

Spartan Nation asked Coach Dantonio point blank whether there may be any sense of complacency setting in becuase of the run of success. His simple answer, “No, I don’t believe there is.” With Notre Dame off the regular season schedule this year, everyone should agree that the Michigan game is the biggest on the MSU regular season schedule. Without any doubt, it’s the most emotional the team as a whole will get for an opponent. The hitting in this game is more fierce than any other on either team’s schedule. Those that have played in the game can tell you that, those that have watched these games from the field can tell you that, and those of you that have been in that atmosphere or have seen these games on TV can tell you that too.  When some Michigan players have tried to state otherwise, they have been quickly discredited and sometimes exposed as liars.  If you’re new to this series, you will quickly realize that on Saturday afternoon. The Spartans’ intensity will be elevated, and their focus should be nothing short of laser sharp.

Enough players on this team were around in 2012 when Paul Bunyan was rudely relocated to Ann Arbor. He came back in 2013 and is looking to stay in the Spartans’ trophy case again for years to come. MSU has a bye following Michigan, so there’s nothing to look ahead at. The Spartans haven’t played up to their potential over the last three weeks of Big Ten play, so there’s nothing to really hang their hat on at this point.  There's no reason to expect MSU just to kick back and relax coming into this game.  All signs point to this as the week it  all comes together for the 2014 Spartans.  This is their time to make a Spartan statement to the Big Ten and College Football Playoff committee. There’s no more time for MSU to slip up, get mixed up, or trip up. It’s time start making their case for 60 full minutes, for everyone to see, starting with the Michigan Wolverines.

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. It’s fun to look back at the Dantonio era after 100 games. Everyone has their favorite memories, victories, and program building moments.  I look forward to hearing some of yours.  To me, the biggest win will always be the ’09 Overtime winner over Michigan. MSU had led most of the day, U of M made a scary run late and had all the momentum until Rich Rodriguez decided to go for the tie to force OT. He couldn’t have had a greener light to go for the 2-point conversion. Michigan let a chance to steal a game they had no business winning pass right by them. Had they converted for the win, I believe the entire trajectory of the Dantonio era at MSU would have been altered significantly. The Rose Bowl was amazing, the first Big Ten Title victory at Penn State was unforgettable, but none of those would’ve happened without the OT victory over Michigan in 2009.
2. My Top Three Wins of the era: Michigan ’09, Rose Bowl ’13, Penn State ’10. What say you?
3. My Toughest Three Losses of the era: Wisconsin ’12, Michigan ’07, Notre Dame ’13. What say you?
4. Fans can easily tire of listening to the same announcers week in and week out. In the past MSU had a long run of Pam Ward games.  Right now we're coming off back to back Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham broadcasts. Cunningham gained national notoriety for his live and passionate description of Michigan’s Shane Morris situation. Cunningham was right when calling that fiasco live, but listeners seemed to assume that Brady Hoke and other Michigan staffers had Cunningham in their ear telling filling them in on what they could not see.  No, I'm not excusing how Michigan handled that thing.  Now some Spartan fans are sick of Cunningham, who has pointed out some flaws with the Spartans, taken a very close look at the progress of Connor Cook, but has also been fair in complimenting MSU where they earned it. More than Cunningham, it’s the fatigue of listening to the same broadcaster over a couple weeks in a row that tends to wear people down. Whether it’s Matt Millen, Ed Cunningham, or Troy Aikman if we're talking NFL, fans whose teams are re-assigned the same broadcast teams over and over tend to grow really tired of them. Now, get ready for the negative snark of Sean McDonough this week and let me know after the game if you think he's a guy that sounds like he wants to do College Football games.
5. Lastly on that topic, I still think old ESPN Sunday Night both of Mike Patrick, Joe Theismann, and Paul O'Brien has yet to be topped.  Breaking up that team is something ESPN has yet to overcome.