Fantasy Football: Week 1 Tips
The season is finally here, and it’s time to make sure you set up the best lineup possible to win each week. But don’t worry, I’ll be here each week to give you the best, and the worst, plays in fantasy football. And for you risk-takers out there, I’ll give you my thoughts on the potential sleepers from week to week.
Quarterback
BEST: Drew Brees, NO
Drew Brees starts the year off against another favorite in the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings. Many think, mostly because of the dominance of Jared Allen, that the Vikings were formidable against the pass last season, but that just wasn’t the case. The Vikings ranked 19th in the league last year against the pass, giving up an average of 218 yards per game and giving up 26 passing touchdowns on the year, only 9 scores better than the lowly Lions secondary. Also, Brees looked pretty darn solid against the Vikes in last year’s NFC Championship, slinging 3 touchdown passes. Brees is always a good play, but this week he’s a great play.
WORST:Â Joe Flacco, BAL
Flacco is a worthy starter this year, and until Monday it looked like he may get by the Jets without having to face Revis Island. Well, Revis is back, and that hurts Flacco’s chances of a big week. Revis may negate Flacco’s presumed favorite target, Anquan Boldin. If Derrick Mason and new acquisition T.J. Houshmandzadeh don’t step up big time it could mean some less than stellar numbers for Flacco. Flacco’s best bet for a big game will be to force Antonio Cromartie to gamble on some passes and break a few big plays. I just don’t see that happening this time around.
Running Back
BEST:Â Frank Gore, SF
I am extremely high on Gore’s potential going into this season. In week one Gore gets to start off against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle wasn’t particularly good against the run last year, giving up an average of 111 yards per game, including 12 runs of 20 or more yards. Gore also had one of his best games of the year against the Seahawks in 2009, going off for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also caught quite a few passes against Seattle last year, grabbing 5 balls in each of his games against the Seahawks. I’m expecting big things from Gore this week.
WORST:Â Ryan Grant, GB
Grant is a pretty solid back, generally good to produce solid number 2 back scoring from week to week, but I just don’t like his matchup this week. The Eagles were very solid against the run last year, ranking in the top 10 in the league in rushing defense. But the Eagles ranked in the bottom half of the league last year in passing defense, so I expect the Packers to throw the ball a lot in Philadelphia in week 1. Grant may see a few goal line carries, but I doubt he’ll approach 20 carries as the Packers choose to ride Aaron Rodgers.
Wide Receiver
BEST:Â Calvin Johnson, DET
Calvin Johnson is a freak, plain and simple. He and Stafford appear to be on the same page this year. Then there’s the matchup, the stumbling Chicago Bears. The Bears were nothing special against the pass last year, and looked even worse during the preseason. The Bears don’t have a true lockdown corner either, as neither Zack Bowman nor Charles Tillman can contain a talent like Johnson. I have a good feeling that Johnson will go over 100 yards this week and get into the end zone at least once.
WORST:Â Any Steeler WR
The Pittsburgh passing game didn’t look particularly great in the preseason while any QB not named Ben was in the game. Dixon looked like he was having some serious issues grasping the offense, and that doesn’t bode well for his receivers. If the Steelers have to cut down on the number of plays they’ll be running there won’t be as many big play opportunities for Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. Temper your expectations until Roethlisberger returns.
Tight End
BEST:Â Vernon Davis, SF
Davis is the most talented tight end in the league, and he gets the Seattle Seahawks this week. I mentioned Seattle’s defensive woes against the run earlier in the article, and their pass defense was even worse. The Seahawks ranked 30tj against the pass last year giving up an average of 245 yards per game. Davis will most likely be the 49ers’ favorite passing target in week 1, and I expect him to take advantage of a weak Seahawks secondary.
WORST:Â Jason Witten, DAL
This has nothing to do with who he’s playing. I just really think that Witten is due for a significant step backward this season, and we’ll see the first evidence of that in week 1. The Cowboys are loaded at receiver with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Roy Williams. All three of these guys have far more upside and big play ability than Witten, who seemed to lose a step last season. If you have Witten on your team make sure you look for another viable option, just in case his step backward is significant.
Defense
BEST:Â Baltimore Ravens
Ed Reed may be out, but frankly I just don’t think the Jets will be particularly good on offense this year. Mark Sanchez looked pathetic in the preseason, and although the running game is the basis of the Jets’ offense, the Ravens aren’t going to let the Jets establish the run without a fight. The Ravens were the 5th best run defense last year, and that kind of ability allows them to match up very well against the Jets. I expect a low scoring affair, with the Ravens turning the Jets over at least once, and probably multiple times.
WORST:Â Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers had a very powerful offense last year, and things don’t seem to have gotten any worse coming into 2010. As previously mentioned, the Eagles weren’t fantastic against the pass last year, and that isn’t a good sign with Aaron Rodgers and all of his dangerous receiving weapons coming to town. They may be able to snag a few sacks against the notoriously risk-averse Rodgers, but I also think they’ll give up quite a few points this week.
SLEEPER OF THE WEEK
Mike Williams, WR, TB: I mentioned Williams last week, and I think this could be a solid matchup for him. The Browns were one of the worst teams against the pass last year, and Williams figures to be the number 1 in Tampa Bay for week 1. However, Tampa just isn’t very good, so that means anything could happen with Williams. He’s a risky play in week 1, but could produce some solid numbers.
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