Previewing & Predicting MSU Football's Rivalry Bout at Michigan
In this story:
Saturday's the day.
If there is ever a time for Michigan State (2-6 overall, 0-5 Big Ten) to change the narrative of its season, it's now. That's because Michigan (5-3 overall, 2-3 Big Ten) stands on the other sideline.
There is no doubt that this fall has been ugly for MSU. The Spartans enter the Big House on a six-game losing streak that may just keep going. Put the Paul Bunyan Trophy back in the trophy case, though, and Michigan State and Pat Fitzgerald will suddenly have some serious momentum after a victory in the biggest game of the season.
It's going to take a lot for that to happen. Let's break down this game on both ends of the field.
When MSU Has the Ball
Question No. 1 is simple: who the heck is going to play quarterback? Starter Alessio Milivojevic has been listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury in each of the mid-week availability reports for this game. MSU and UM will also be required to send out a game-day report at about 5:30 p.m. ET (two hours before kickoff) on Saturday.
Milivojevic was listed as questionable in the lead-up to Michigan State's last game at UCLA, too, before being ruled out on the game-day report. That forced the Spartans to turn to true freshman QB3 Kayd Coffman to start against the Bruins, with backup Cam Fancher also hurt.
It's tough to see MSU having any realistic chance in this game if Milivojevic cannot play. Coffman flashed some good things in his starting debut, but he was very much a true freshman. Maybe the second start will come a little easier than the first, but Michigan's defense is elite (third in total defense), and Michigan Stadium will prove to be a much more hostile environment than the docile, mellow Rose Bowl.
What's not going to help, no matter who starts, is that the Spartans will be without their top three running backs and their top tight end. Top back Cam Edwards was ruled out for the season following a Week 4 injury; Jaziun Patterson will miss his second straight game, and Marvis Parrish is out with a leg injury he sustained at UCLA.
RB4 Kenneth Williams is the expected starter. He had 54 rushing yards, one receiving touchdown, and one lost fumble two weeks ago in Pasadena.
Tight end Jayden Savoury was the surprise addition to the availability report. When or how he got hurt isn't clear or public, but the important part is that he's hurt. Savoury has been one of the only bright spots on a pretty horrible Michigan State offense. He's got 29 catches (tied-most on the team) and 271 receiving yards (second on the team) during his sophomore season and has to be considered a "must-keep" this offseason for MSU.
Add in the fact that, again, Michigan's defense is among the best in the country, and it's pretty difficult to imagine the Spartans scoring many points in this one. Lots of pressure has to be on the Spartans' defense to hold up. UM's 21 points given up at Rutgers last week were actually the most the Wolverines have allowed all season.
When Michigan Has the Ball
If there is anything that will really keep Michigan State around in this game for four quarters, it might have to be Michigan's offensive ineptitude. MSU's offense is the worst in the Power Four in terms of yards, but Michigan has the third-worst unit. This game features the bottom two scoring offenses in the conference -- the Wolverines at 21.3 points per game and the Spartans at 19.9.
The Spartans *might* start a true freshman quarterback, but UM is *definitely* starting a true freshman quarterback. That's Tommy Carr, who earned the QB2 job initially and became the starter after Bryce Underwood struggled to get anything going. Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham named Carr the team's starter for the "foreseeable future" earlier this week.
Carr lit a spark in the Wolverines' offense last week, and he really was a reason Michigan won. UM's 28 points were the second-most of the season (only behind 52 against UTEP), with Carr throwing for 266 yards on 81.5% completion and three total touchdowns (one passing, two rushing).
Michigan State's defense still has its own injuries to worry about, too. The team's two best players on that side of the ball, linebacker Jordan Hall and nose tackle Ben Roberts, are both out. Hall has been dealing with multiple different injuries this year, but this will be his third straight missed game. Roberts suffered a leg injury on the very first defensive play against UCLA, and it would feel surprising for him to return this year.
The bye week really didn't do MSU many favors on the injury front. Two defensive players who could potentially make a return for this game, though, are cornerbacks Tyran Chappell and Keshawn Williams. Chappell could very well be Michigan State's best corner, so his return would be huge. Williams is a backup on a healthy Spartan roster, but MSU needs anybody it can get, with Tre Bell and Charles Brantley both out as well.
Strongside safety Devin Vaught's status is also very important. He's another player on the "questionable" list for Saturday with an injury he also suffered against UCLA. Vaught has been another bright spot because of how effective he is as a run defender. He had two forced fumbles against the Bruins, and he's the only Michigan State DB with a pick this year.
Final Thoughts
One doesn't want to call it the worst Michigan-MSU game ever before the game is actually played, but it definitely feels like the one in my (relatively short) lifetime with the least amount of juice. There have been games where one side is completely down, but neither fanbase in this state seems excited. Even Twitter has been boring.
It's for good reason, though. Michigan State is 2-6 and about to miss a bowl game for a fifth straight year. UM isn't quite that bad, but unranked and 5-3, with a head coach who clearly doesn't fit in Ann Arbor, isn't exactly where Michigan wants to be just a few years removed from a national championship.
Somebody's gotta win this one, though, and it's tough to see that team being Michigan State. The Maize and Blue already have the talent advantage, and the Spartans' macabre injury report only widens that gap. Michigan will keep the Paul Bunyan Trophy again, but nobody's going to feel super good about it.
Final Prediction (with Milivojevic): Michigan 24, Michigan State 10
Final Prediction (no Milivojevic): Michigan 28, Michigan State 7
Watch Our Latest Podcast
Add us as a preferred source on Google
A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
Follow jacobcotsonika