Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction and Odds for College Basketball on Thursday, Nov. 5

The No. 6 Michigan State Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo are off to a 1-0 start this season, defeating the Quinnipiac Bobcats, and they’re heavily favored at home in a matchup with the Toledo Rockets on Thursday night.

The Spartans return multiple key players from last season’s team, including star guard Jeremy Fears Jr. and high-flying forward Coen Carr. After Thursday’s game, the Spartans have a massive top-10 battle with the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils next Tuesday, and they’d love to enter that game with a 2-0 record.

Meanwhile, the Rockets and Mynor Strong (18.0 points per game) lost by one point on the road against Arkansas State in their opener, and they’re facing an uphill battle in this matchup.

The Spartans are the No. 6 team in KenPom’s rankings, ranking 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Can Izzo’s group get another big-time win before the showdown with Duke next week?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this college basketball showdown on Thursday night.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via Fanatics Sportsbook

Spread

Toledo +25.5 (-110)
Michigan State -25.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Toledo: +4500
Michigan State: -15000

Total

151.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Toledo vs. Michigan State How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 5
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Breslin Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock
Toledo record: 0-1
Michigan State record: 1-0

Toledo vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

Jeremy Fears Jr., Guard, Michigan State

One of the best passers in the country, Fears averaged 15.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in the 2025-26 season, shooting 43.1 percent from the field.

The brother of New Orleans Pelicans second-year guard Jeremiah Fears, Jeremy could find himself in the NBA in the future if he continues to improve as a jump shooter. He’s coming off a double-double against Quinnipiac, putting 13 points and 11 dimes in the win.

He is the engine for this Michigan State offense that could be one of the best in the country in the 2026-27 season.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

This Michigan State team is loaded with veterans, and it showed it was ready for the 2026-27 season, beating Quinnipiac by 37 points and nearly cracking triple-digits in the win.

Now, the Spartans are in a great spot to beat a Rockets team that lost to Arkansas State and enters this season at No. 141 in KenPom’s rankings.

Early season college basketball is tough to bet on with a lot of moving parts with just about every team in the transfer portal, but this is an ideal time for a team like Michigan State to get a couple of feel-good wins before the out of conference schedule gets tougher.

Toledo was just 18-15 last season (10-8 in the MAC), and I don’t see if pulling off a cover on the road after struggling a bit in its opener, shooting just 22 percent from 3 and turning the ball over 16 times.

I’ll lay the points with the Spartans on Thursday night.

Pick: Michigan State -25.5 (-110 at Fanatics)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google