The CFP’s Alabama Problem Solves Itself? Four Bold Predictions for College Football Week 10

This Halloween turned out to be a spooky one for two of the teams we singled out in last week’s bold predictions column.

First, the week’s only outright victim: Oregon State. The Beavers, indeed, fell to Earth in a 38–22 loss to Fresno State that threw a wrench into the Pac-12 race. Indiana, meanwhile, nearly lost to Minnesota and remained one of college football’s most prolific escape artists. Only kicker Paddy McAteer’s 60-yard kick at the buzzer bought the Hoosiers overtime, which they used to top the Golden Gophers 23–17.

That drama took place in a week with relatively low stakes, where one could’ve distracted themselves with the WNBA Finals or dressing up as Nathan Fielder. No such luck this week, one of the decade’s most stacked. Here are four bold predictions for the weekend to come in college football.

Missouri beats Texas to return to the CFP race

This is not that bold a prediction in that the Longhorns are only 2.5-point favorites over the Tigers in what once would’ve been a Big 12 matchup. The key difference between the two teams that would qualify a Missouri win as an upset: College Football Reference says Texas has played the most difficult schedule in the country, while the Tigers’ doesn’t crack the top 30.

Consider the extent to which quarterback Arch Manning and the Longhorns have struggled against good defenses—Manning has thrown for four touchdowns and four interceptions combined against Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon’s unit won’t have another one Saturday three weeks after allowing 498 yards to Ole Miss—Missouri wins 24–20.

The CFP committee’s Alabama problem takes care of itself

With 100% of precincts reporting Tuesday, the CFP selection committee ranked the Crimson Tide eight spots ahead of a Volunteers team with the same record that dominated Alabama three weeks ago—doing nothing to diminish the longstanding public belief that the committee is entirely too credulous to the sport’s biggest TV draws. Luckily for the power brokers, however, LSU is going to do the CFP a favor by beating the Crimson Tide handily enough to drop them into the 10-15 range where they belong.

The Tigers aren’t perfect, but at no point have they been dominated the way Alabama was against Tennessee—their two losses have come by nine points combined in games where they were tied or leading in the back half of the fourth quarter. Even a B+ performance probably buys LSU 30 points and a double-digit win against the Crimson Tide at home; the latter’s defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.

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One of Florida (vs. Oklahoma) or Tennessee (vs. Kentucky) falls

These rivals are being grouped together because when we started writing the article they were favored by identical 6.5-point amounts (the Gators’ line dropped to six shortly thereafter). Both teams are gettable—Oklahoma’s defense has proven capable of stopping good offenses like Florida’s, while (though overmatched on paper) coach Will Stein’s Kentucky team has proven capable of beating anyone.

Potential hurdles: the Sooners’ offense (109th in FBS in scoring) remains reprehensible, while it feels like the bill is coming due for a Wildcats squad with three one-possession wins to its name since the calendar turned to October. If we had to choose: the Gators are reportedly making a quarterback change, and Oklahoma canned offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle Monday.

Nebraska beats Illinois by a larger margin than Michigan beats Michigan State

The wake of three straight one-possession losses seems like the perfect time to double down on the Cornhuskers, an asset so distressed the next season of Industry should film in Lincoln. What we know: Nebraska has been slightly above average offensively and genuinely great defensively against a mediocre schedule, while the Fighting Illini—a team outgained by more than 100 yards in their best win, over Oregon—have been mediocre offensively and defensively against a slightly above-average schedule.

That’s a Friday road rebound in the form of a 20-point win—let’s say 34–14—waiting to happen. It also feels like a bigger slam dunk than the Wolverines’ rivalry game against the Spartans, a defensive battle that has a 17–9 feel regardless of which quarterback suits up for Michigan State.

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