Full Preview & Prediction for MSU's Homecoming Game vs. Illinois
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Michigan State could really use a victory to get its spirits back up.
The Spartans (2-3 overall, 0-2 Big Ten) have lost three straight, all by at least 17 points, and MSU needs a boost before the schedule gets tough again. It's a weak Illinois (2-3 overall, 0-2 Big Ten) team this Saturday. After this, it's a tough five-game stretch against Northwestern, No. 21 UCLA, Michigan, Washington, and No. 13 Oregon. A loss to the Fighting Illini here would remove almost any remaining hope of a bowl bid.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
Michigan State's offense against Illinois' defense is a quintessential "very stoppable force vs. a very movable object" matchup. The Spartans' offense is the worst in the Power Four in terms of yardage, and the Fighting Illini's defense is the 10th-worst in the P4 and fourth-worst in the Big Ten.
Illinois actually parted ways with its defensive coordinator, Bobby Hauck, two weeks ago. Interim DC Roger Cooper followed Hauck from Montana this offseason, so the defensive scheme isn't really expected to change much.
That scheme is the most unusual thing about the Fighting Illini. This offseason, Illinois switched to a 3-3-5 defense (3 linemen, 3 linebackers, 5 defensive backs). Head coach Bret Bielema said a reason for that was actually just because budget restraints meant he couldn't afford enough quality d-linemen.
Illinois has actually been okay against the run so far. It has 126.8 yards per game on the ground, which is 12th in the Big Ten. They allow 3.62 yards per carry, 11th in the Big Ten. Defending the pass has been the issue. Illinois is dead last in the conference, allowing 255.0 yards per game.
The big downside of that 3-3-5 defense is that it's tough to get pressure. Illinois only has three sacks all season, one shy of the bottom of the FBS. Dropping eight a lot should tighten up windows, but rushing only three also gives opposing quarterbacks a lot of time to scan the secondary for open receivers.
Michigan State's passing attack has been anemic the past three weeks. In fairness, this has been against three teams currently in the top 25 for pass defense. This should make it a "prove it" game for both starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and starting wide receivers Rodney Bullard Jr., Fredrick Moore, and Chrishon McCray.
Milvojevic should have time in the pocket (if he doesn't, then it becomes an offensive line discussion), and therefore, his receivers should have time to get open. The ingredients of a downfield throw are protection, an open receiver, and then the throw. MSU hasn't consistently made it click yet. If it can't click against this Illinois defense, it probably never will.
When Illinois Has the Ball
Saturday's big storyline, beyond the Spartans' annual homecoming game, is quarterback Katin Houser's return to Michigan State. He spent two years in East Lansing to begin his collegiate career, becoming the starter during the back half of the 2023 campaign. Houser transferred after that season to East Carolina. After two years there and a 3,300-yard 2025 season, he returned to the Big Ten with Illinois.
Houser has been solid for the Illini this year. He's thrown for 1,246 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions through five games and as many starts. Houser doesn't have the legs of Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea or Wisconsin's Colton Joseph, but it's definitely not something to completely discount. Arm talent is where Houser shines most on tape, though sometimes he misses or overthrows throws that Big Ten quarterbacks should make.
Wide receiver Collin Dixon is the biggest player to know in Illinois' offense. He's one of the best players in the Big Ten and perhaps in the country. His 546 receiving yards are third in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation entering Week 6. Michigan State's secondary, which is already down Tyran Chappell and possibly without corner Tre Bell (questionable), will have its hands full defending Dixon.
On the ground, Illinois will be turning to running back Aidan Laughery. He's got 321 rushing yards this season on 7.1 yards per carry. Laughery normally splits the carries pretty down the middle with Ca'Lil Valentine, but his share should shoot way up with Valentine ruled out for this one.
Final Thoughts, Prediction
Michigan State absolutely could win this game. Illinois' defense is pretty bad, and its offense can be pretty inconsistent at times. However, in these "bad vs. bad" college football matchups, sometimes it can just come down to which team has a bit more talent and a few more playmakers.
Illinois has the better playmaking quarterback, and the Fighting Illini also have a real playmaking wide receiver. MSU's offense may dig itself out of quicksand a little bit in this one against a weaker defense, but probably not enough to get a needed victory.
Final Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan State 21
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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