Full Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Football Preview & Prediction
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The trajectory of Michigan State's season may hinge on Saturday.
Things are starting to slope downward a bit for the Spartans (2-2 overall, 0-1 Big Ten) after back-to-back losses and a large number of injuries, most notably a season-ending injury to star running back Cam Edwards. A response is certainly needed against Wisconsin (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten), which has strong momentum after a comeback road win over then-No. 13 Penn State.
Two Common Opponents
One interesting part of this matchup is that MSU and Wisconsin actually share a pair of common opponents. The bigger of the two is No. 3 Notre Dame. Michigan State lost to the Fighting Irish on the road, 27-10, during Week 3. Wisconsin lost 41-13 to Notre Dame at Lambeau Field in Green Bay during both teams' season openers.
Eastern Michigan is the other. MSU handled the Eagles 35-7 after a dominant second half. Wisconsin also beat EMU with relative ease in a 54-10 result.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
Michigan State's offense has been anemic the last two weeks. The Spartans scored just one touchdown in each game against Notre Dame and Nebraska, and their nine offensive touchdowns are three fewer than any other Big Ten team entering Week 5.
Edwards being done for the season only makes it harder. His jump cut and ability to move side to side in a blink are things nobody else on the roster has, and they often turned losses into modest games. Jaziun Patterson, a former transfer from Iowa, is the new expected starter. He has 26 rushes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Marvis Parrish, Brandon Tullis, and Kenneth Williams could also get some additional playing time.
MSU's offense needs a "get right" game, and Wisconsin's defense isn't exactly the one to have it against. The Badgers' defense is ranked 28th in the country in yardage allowed entering Saturday. That's good, but it is a bit easier than Notre Dame's top-ranked defense and Nebraska's, which is fifth.
Wisconsin still has some impressive players across its defense. Sebastian Cheeks stands out as a very solid pass rusher on the weak side; the Badgers' interior defensive line looks like a strength; linebacker Cooper Catalano and Mason Posa are both very good, and Javan Robinson is a very nice CB1.
Michigan State's offense needs to avoid negative plays and sacks and protect the ball to have a shot here. The Spartans have had 28 plays go for a loss this season, including 15 sacks. Both of those are the most in the Big Ten. They've also turned it over five times in the last two games.
Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic will also be under the microscope on Saturday. He's really struggled the last two games, responsible for four turnovers without a single passing touchdown. The average amount of time he takes to throw (2.97 seconds) is very long for a pocket passer, according to PFF, so getting Milivojevic some quicker, easier throws is key for this one.
When Wisconsin Has the Ball
Which players play and which ones don't on the Spartans' defense will also greatly impact Michigan State's chances in Madison. MSU had a massive chunk of its top cornerbacks and linebackers listed on its Friday night availability report. At corner, Tyran Chappell (starter), NiJhay Burt, and Keshawn Williams are all OUT, and Tre Bell (starter) is QUESTIONABLE. At linebacker, star Jordan Hall is DOUBTFUL, and Brady Pretzlaff (starter), Dion Crawford, and Cam Stodghill are all QUESTIONABLE.
Michigan State needs at least a few players on the questionable or doubtful list to play on Saturday. It's tough to see the defense hold up for 60 minutes, especially with depth on the defensive line starting to become a concern again.
The Spartans are also having to contend with another very mobile quarterback. Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea is probably a better passer than Wisconsin's Colton Joseph, but Joseph is the better runner.
He'll probably get some designed quarterback runs, which MSU could really struggle with if its linebacker corps is as short-handed as it could be. Joseph ran for 1,007 yards and 13 touchdowns at Old Dominion last year, and he's got 121 yards and two scores through four games this year.
Joseph's trade-off involves some puzzling decisions at times. He threw three interceptions at Penn State last week, and his five picks are tied for the most in the Big Ten (Rutgers' Dylan Lonergan). Michigan State's defense has just one small chase-down sack and hasn't forced a turnover in the last two weeks. Pressure needs to be applied on Joseph in the pocket on Saturday.
MSU's nickelbacks will also be tested against Wisconsin slot receiver Tyrell Henry, a former Spartan. He has 24 catches, 307 yards, and one score so far. Malachi Coleman is another receiver to watch.
Final Thoughts, Prediction
Neither offense looks particularly impressive in this game. Wisconsin doesn't feel as good as Notre Dame or Nebraska on offense or defense, and that win at Penn State seemed more like the Nittany Lions losing it than Wisconsin winning it.
Michigan State has a path to victory here, but it's narrow -- much narrower than Wisconsin's. The Badgers seem like a decent Big Ten squad, and they'll have enough to handle a short-handed MSU team at Camp Randall in a bit of a low-scoring game.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 10
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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