Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

The Michigan State Spartans and Pat Fitzgerald open the 2026 college football season on Friday night at home against the Toledo Rockets.

Toledo could be one of the better teams in the MAC this season, as it has a win total of 7.5 that is heavily juiced to the OVER coming into Week 1. The Rockets won eight games in the 2025 season and were 6-2 in MAC play.

Still, they’re underdogs on the road in Week 1 against a Spartans team that is turning to redshirt sophomore Alessio Milivojevic at quarterback. Last season, Milivojevic appeared in nine games and threw for 10 scores, completing 64.2 percent of his passes.

The Big Ten is loaded with talent – as it is just about every year – but Milivojevic’s development could go a long way for the Spartans, who have a win total of just 4.5 in the 2026 campaign.

Toledo has a senior at quarterback John Alan Richter, but he’s attempted less passes in his career (96) than Milivojevic did in the 2025 season.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Week 1 showdown.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Toledo +10 (-110)
Michigan State -10 (-110)

Moneyline

Toledo: +330
Michigan State: -425

Total

47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Toledo vs. Michigan State How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 4
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Spartan Stadium
How to Watch (TV): FS1
Toledo record: 0-0
Michigan State record: 0-0

Toledo vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

Alessio Milivojevic, Quarterback, Michigan State

The redshirt sophomore started the final four games of the 2026 season, and he played well, tossing seven scores and just two picks. Michigan State was just 1-3 in those games, which came against Minnesota, Penn State, Iowa and Maryland.

If the Spartans want a chance to outperform preseason expectations, they’ll need Milivojevic to prove that he’s one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the conference. Preseason rankings suggest that he’ll be one of the worst in the conference, as Sports Illustrated’s Zach Koons has Milivojevic ranked 62nd out of 68 starting quarterbacks in Power Four conferences.

For his career, Milivojevic has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 1,267 yards, 10 scores and four picks.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Toledo had one of the better defenses in the country last season, ranking third in net EPA/Play, and it won six conference games with Tucker Gleason (21 touchdown passes) at quarterback.

Now, the Rockets turn to Richter, who doesn’t have a ton of collegiate experience as a starter. That could lead to a slower start offensively, especially against a Power Four team like the Spartans.

Michigan State struggled in Milivojevic’s starts to end last season, and the Spartans are clearly expected to be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a win total sitting at 4.5.

The OVER hit in seven games for both of these teams in the 2025 season, but I think this line is a little high given the uncertainty at quarterback on both sides.

Toledo did lose a lot of pieces from last year’s defense, but the consensus rankings on Milivojevic suggest that Michigan State will be far from an offensive juggernaut. I’ll go UNDER in this Week 1 matchup on Friday night.

Pick: UNDER 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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