Here's X-Factor for Michigan State in Battle at Indiana
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March is officially here.
There is only three games left in No. 13 Michigan State's (23-5 overall, 13-4 Big Ten) regular season, but winning time is now. MSU is carrying a lot of momentum into Indiana (17-11, 8-9) after taking down eighth-ranked Purdue on Thursday, 76-74, but the foot has to remain on the gas for the Spartans to take their second road game in four days on Sunday against the Hoosiers.
Both teams have plenty at stake in this game. Michigan State winning here would push the team extremely close to securing a top four seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which would allow the Spartans to go straight to the quarterfinals, as well as bolster the resume some more. IU is going to be playing desperate as an NCAA Tournament bubble team that is now on a three-game losing streak.
For MSU, there is one thing in particular that needs to improve from the Purdue game to now that will be a critical component of this game: defending the three-ball.
Breakdown of Indiana's 3-Point Shooting
Indiana shoots a lot of threes. Like, a lot of threes. So far this season, 51.2% of the Hoosiers' shot attempts have been from beyond the three-point arc. It's the 10th-largest percentage in the country, but actually fourth in the Big Ten.
Michigan State just allowed Purdue to go 12-for-25 from deep on Thursday. That's part of what made the win for MSU so thrilling: the Boilermakers still played relatively well, also out-rebounding the Spartans, but Michigan State still won the game in a hostile environment.
Purdue's three-point shooting ratio is only around the middle of the Big Ten, though. It's a more balanced attack from the Boilermakers, which helps explain why that offense is ranked second in the country on KenPom. Having Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff in the frontcourt as well as Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer ready to shoot in the backcourt gives defenses a lot to worry about.
That's the good and bad part about facing a more imbalanced offense: if the Spartans can contain the Hoosiers' three-point shooting, it is probably checkmate. But if IU sees a bunch of shots go in, that's trouble. That's especially so for Lamar Wilkerson, who leads the Big Ten in scoring during conference play (23.6 points per game), while shooting 9.3 threes per game (second in the B1G) and making them at a 37.3% clip.
This has been the case when Michigan State has faced the three other Big Ten teams that take a similar, but slightly larger percentage of three-pointers: Nebraska (51.4%), Wisconsin (51.3%), and Illinois (51.2%). During those two losses to the Cornhuskers and the Badgers (both being on the road, too), it saw 28 threes go through the hoop at a 38.9% rate. The Fighting Illini made 10 threes during its loss to MSU in East Lansing, but it took 36 tries to get there, which is good for a percentage of just 27.8%.
That's the X-factor of this game. Indiana was relatively pedestrian during its first meeting against Michigan State this year, shooting 10-for-31 from deep (32.3%). If that's the range the Spartans' defense can sit in on Sunday, they'll be in a good spot. If it's more like Nebraska or Wisconsin, look out, because the threes are going to keep flying.
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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