How MSU Can Avoid Upset Bid vs. North Dakota State

There is only one guaranteed game left in the season.

We, as outsiders, can worry about how No. 3 seed Michigan State would match up against Louisville or South Florida in the second round, or against UConn in the Sweet 16, or against Duke in the Elite Eight, but none of that matters if MSU goes down immediately to North Dakota State on Thursday.

How NDSU Stacks Up

Michigan State's Tom Izzo shouts instructions out during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

NDSU is the best 14-seed in March Madness this year, according to the selection committee's overall seed list. The Bison are entering at 27-7 overall, winning both the Summit League regular season and tournament championships. According to KenPom, which ranks them 113th, they'd be favored on a neutral court against Big Ten teams Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State.

"The parity, because of what happened, is 10 times more," Tom Izzo said on Monday. "You used to have a top-2, -3 seed, it'd get you out of the first weekend. Now, as we learned with Virginia [losing as a 1-seed to UMBC] a few years ago, it doesn't even get you out of the first game. That's what I try to tell our players."

Michigan State's Tom Izzo yells at a referee about a call made during a game against Northwestern at the Breslin Center on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Izzo has been on the wrong side of it himself, losing as a 2-seed in the first round against 15th-seeded Middle Tennessee State back in 2016. Upsets in that realm have gotten more frequent lately --- seven of the 11 instances of 15-seeds taking down twos have happened since 2012. Four of those teams have made the Sweet 16, and one made the Elite Eight (2022 Saint Peter's).

Fourteens taking down threes is a little more frequent (23 times since 1985), though there hasn't been a 14-seed in the second weekend since 1997. The 3 seeds carry a 35-5 record against 14 seeds over the last 10 tournaments, with the most recent upset being Greg Kampe's Oakland over John Calipari's Kentucky in 2024.

Guard the Three-Point Line

For MSU to avoid that, it'll have to do what the Wildcats didn't do that day against the Golden Grizzlies: defend the three-ball (Oakland went 15-for-31 that day). North Dakota State doesn't have a Jack Gohlke-esque figure, but they can rain threes down.

NDSU has hit as many as 19 threes in one game this year, doing so against Drake on Dec. 13. The Bison have made at least 10 threes in 16 games this year. That's the type of shooting they'll probably need to hang around against a Michigan State squad that is much bigger than them.

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. looks on during a game against Ohio State at the Breslin Center on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

The issue is that three-point defense has been a bit of a problem lately for MSU. Each of the Spartans' last five opponents made at least 10 threes, with those teams shooting 43.3% from deep over that stretch.

Michigan State must take away the oxygen on the perimeter, and that starts with some better on-ball defense in order to take away those kick-out passes that killed MSU against UCLA on Friday.

Michigan State forward Coen Carr (55) makes a jump shot against UCLA during the second half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Once this game tips on Thursday, watch and see how Jeremy Fears Jr. or Jordan Scott defends North Dakota State point guard Andy Stefonowicz. If he can't get around his man on the dribble, the Spartans are probably in a good spot.

Michigan State's Jordan Scott watches a free throw go up during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI