MSU Rising in Bracket Projections after Purdue, IU Victories
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Michigan State is rising at the right time in bracket projections.
The eighth-ranked Spartans just had perhaps their biggest week of the season to this point. MSU went into Mackey Arena and took down Purdue on Thursday, and then went into Assembly Hall and led start-to-finish against Indiana on Sunday.
ESPN's Current Projections
One place where Michigan State really shot up the list was from ESPN's Joe Lunardi. With the days until Selection Sunday shrinking, Lunardi has more frequently been posting updates on what the current tournament outlook is.
As recently as Saturday night, after MSU's win over the Boilermakers and before the Spartans' victory over the Hoosiers, Lunardi had the Spartans as the nation's top 4-seed. Now, Lunardi has placed Michigan State all the way up as a No. 2 seed, the nation's No. 7 overall seed.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 2, 2026
Obviously, that represents a major shift from a single decent Quad 1 victory. This is partially because plenty of teams in the same seed range as MSU have also lost recently: Purdue lost again to Ohio State, Gonzaga lost to Saint Mary's, and Iowa State lost to Texas Tech.
That's helped clear the road for Michigan State to become more directly compared to teams like Purdue and Illinois. Since the Spartans now hold head-to-head wins over both of those teams, they essentially secure the tiebreaker.
Lunardi also shifted MSU from the West to the East Region. This would drastically alter some Spartan fans' travel plans. If Michigan State makes the Sweet 16 in the West, it would go to San Jose, Calif. If it's in the East, it goes to Washington, D.C. The latter is probably MSU's preferred option, with it being much closer.
CBS's Projections
CBS is also joining the "Michigan State 2 seed" parade. It updated its full bracket projection on Monday morning, placing the Spartans as the second seed out in the West Region. MSU would get a pretty interesting draw if CBS's bracket holds up.
The site has Michigan State facing 15th-seeded Portland State in the first round, but then either No. 7 seed BYU or No. 10 seed UCLA in the second round.
The Cougars would be a pretty interesting matchup. They boast the nation's leading scorer, AJ Dybantsa, who averages 24.9 points per game. BYU is also going the rest of the season without Richie Saunders, who was at 18.0 points a contest before tearing his ACL.
Facing a fellow Big Ten team in UCLA would be unusual, but it's not that uncommon. The 2018-19 Spartans faced Minnesota in the second round of the tourney en route to the program's most recent Final Four.
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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