Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Sunday, March 1

The Michigan State Spartans have won three games in a row, including a massive win over Purdue to move into third in the Big Ten standings this season.

Now, the Spartans find themselves as road favorites on Sunday against the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in, but a loss on Sunday could change that.

pic.twitter.com/nKtopXeZGR
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 1, 2026

Indiana is 17-11 this season, and it closes out Big Ten play with games against Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State. The game against the Buckeyes could be a huge one, as they are in Lunardi’s last four out of the tournament entering Sunday’s action (Ohio State plays Purdue on Sunday afternoon).

Michigan State is just 5-3 on the road this season, which could be a good sign for the Hoosiers (13-3 at home). However, the Spartans won the first meeting between these teams by 21 points at home.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten battle on Sunday afternoon.

Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan State -3.5 (-105)
Indiana +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Michigan State: -162
Indiana: +136

Total

144.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Michigan State vs. Indiana How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 1
Time: 3:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Michigan State record: 23-5
Indiana record: 17-11

Michigan State vs. Indiana Key Player to Watch

Lamar Wilkerson, Guard, Indiana

Senior guard Lamar Wilkerson is one of the best scorers in the Big Ten, averaging 21.0 points per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from 3.

In the loss to Michigan State earlier this season, Wilkerson dropped 19 points and shot 45.5 percent from deep, but it was not enough for the Hoosiers to even hang around. At home, Wilkerson is averaging 21.8 points per game across 16 matchups.

Indiana has lost three games in a row to Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, but Wilkerson has scored 18 or more points in all of those matchups. He also had a 41-point game in a win over Oregon last month.

If the Hoosiers are going to pull off the upset, the senior guard is going to lead the way offensively.

Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

The Spartans exorcised some of their road demons with a win over Purdue in their last game, but Michigan State is just 3-4-1 against the spread on the road and lost outright against Wisconsin (by 21) and Minnesota (by three) in its two road games before the Purdue matchup.

I think that leaves the door open for the Hoosiers to cover here, especially since Indiana is one of the best shooting teams in the country.

The Hoosiers are 27th in effective field goal percentage and eighth in 2-point percentage. They also are ninth in 3-point rate, so while they’re making just 34.9 percent of their 3s, they are getting a ton up each matchup.

Indiana has been much better at home (13-3) than on the road (3-7), and it could neutralize the Spartans’ insane rebounding numbers by shooting well from 2-point range like it has all season. Michigan State is No. 5 in the country in defensive rebound rate and No. 1 in offensive rebound rate, and if it dominates the glass, Indiana could be in trouble.

However, Michigan State has two key issues on the road this season:

It ranks 349th in opponent turnover rate on the road (it’s 282nd overall in the 2025-26 campaign).
The Spartans are also 268th in opponent 3-point percentage and 347th in opponent 3-point rate on the road.

Both of those numbers favor the Hoosiers, especially since they take so many shots from beyond the arc.

With this spread outside of one possession, I think Indiana hangs around with its NCAA Tournament hopes still very much up in the air.

Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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