Where Michigan State Projected in Initial 76-Team Tournament

Here's where the Spartans are projected to end up in next year's expanded tournament.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a call during the first half of NCAA Tournament First Round against North Dakota State at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Like it or not, March Madness now has 76 teams.

The NCAA formally adopted expansion of both the men's and women's tournament on Thursday, adding eight more at-large spots to increase the size of the beloved event from 68. ESPN's Joe Lunardi quickly released an early projection of what the expanded tournament might look like, and expansion is already affecting Michigan State's standing.

Lunardi's Projection

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) celebrates 77-69 win over Louisville at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As of now, Lunardi has MSU as his No. 2 seed in the South Region. What makes NCAA Tournament expansion have an impact is that the Spartans won't know their first-round opponent after Selection Sunday. They also would have less of an idea of who they might face in the Round of 32.

That's because the final 10-seed in Michigan State's region will be determined by those new play-in games, which are now part of the NCAA's rebranded "Opening Round." All 16-seeds will have to play their way into the first round now, and there will be two play-in games for the 15-seeds.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo shakes the hand of an Ohio State assistant before a game at the Breslin Center on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Lunardi currently has MSU as one of the 2-seeds that would face the winner of an opening round game. He has the Spartans going to Pittsburgh for the first weekend, where they would face either Queens or Austin Peay.

If Michigan State goes to Pittsburgh, its Round of 64 game would be the Thursday after Selection Sunday. That would mean MSU wouldn't learn it would face either Queens or Austin Peay until that Tuesday afternoon or night.

Michigan State's Coen Carr looks on during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

The expanded play-in round also impacts the 7-10 game right next to the Spartans on the overall bracket. Lunardi projects Miami (FL) to be a 7-seed next season, but the Hurricanes would also face the winner of an opening round game between 10-seeds Iowa and Baylor.

Mar 27, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Additional Impact of Expansion

Aside from expansion, one interesting dynamic emerging here is that the first week of the tournament is even more packed, with the overall March Madness timeline staying the same. Normally, Tom Izzo and Michigan State would have to be prepared to face three teams. Lunardi's projection would instead require MSU to spend time and energy on scouts for five different opponents.

The odds that the Spartans have to pay attention to multiple play-in games aren't super high, but just one game still matters a lot, especially if it's your first-round foe. If Michigan State plays the winner of a 15-seed play-in game, that only gives MSU one actual day of prep for its first opponent. That's a lot different than the three- or four-day stretch a team that immediately knows their first game on Selection Sunday gets.

Apr 22, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Michigan State head basketball coach Tom Izzo watches during the first half of the game between the Detroit Pistons and the Orlando Magic during game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images