Where MSU's Tournament Outlook Stands after Illinois Win

There's only a little more than a month until college basketball's 68-team bracket gets revealed.

No. 10 Michigan State is a lock to make the field. Already at 20-4 overall, the Spartans could probably just lay down, lose every game the rest of the way, and still make their 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament. Obviously, MSU is aiming higher than that, though.

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo looks on before the game against Illinois on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With just eight guaranteed games left (seven regular season, at least one Big Ten tourney game) before "The Big Dance" begins, updates on where Michigan State is currently projected to end up are important. It's always difficult to try and figure out what the selection committee will do with all 31 auto-bids and 37 at-large teams, but some people try.

After an interesting week that featured a bad loss to Minnesota, but then a big win over then-No. 5 Illinois, here is one projection on where the Spartans will end up:

CBS Sports' Projection

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. shoots during warmups before the game against Illinois on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The growing consensus after Michigan State's win over Illinois is that the Spartans seem to belong on the 3-seed line. Some bracketologists moved MSU down to a 4 seed after its loss at Minnesota, but a Quad 1-A victory over the Fighting Illini seemed to zero out any ground the Spartans had lost in their defeat to the Golden Gophers.

Currently, David Cobb and Jacob Fetner of CBS Sports have Michigan State as the 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament's South Region, as of Monday morning. They have the Spartans paired up with 14th-seeded Wright State, which currently sits in first place in the Horizon League with an 11-3 mark during conference play and a 16-9 overall record. The Raiders are currently 130th in the NET rankings, ahead of the Big Ten's Penn State (131st), Maryland (161st), and Rutgers (169th).

If Michigan State were to take care of business there and move on to the second round of the tourney, its most likely opponent would be 6 seed Saint Louis. The Billikens would be a pretty dangerous team in that spot, currently at 23-1 overall with a perfect 11-0 mark during Atlatnic 10 play. They're currently ranked 18th in the AP Poll and 15th in the NET as well.

CBS' projections don't show where MSU would travel for its first and second round games, though most projections I've seen have had the Spartans starting in either Buffalo, N.Y., or Philadelphia, Penn. What is known is that if Michigan State plays in the South Region, it would go to Houston, Texas for the Sweet 16 and/or the Elite Eight. The Final Four this year is in Indianapolis, Ind.

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler makes a 3-pointer against Michigan during the second half on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Keep up with all our content when you follow the official Spartan Nation page on Facebook, Spartan Nation, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be sure to share your thoughts on MSU's tournament projection when you join our community group, Go Green Go White, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE. Don't forget to give us a follow on X @MSUSpartansOnSI as well.

Never again miss one major story related to your beloved Spartans when you sign up for our 100% FREE newsletter that comes straight to your email with the latest news. SIGN UP HERE NOW