Why Final Stretch Will Define Smith's Shaky MSU Career
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Michigan State takes on Penn State on its home field this Saturday.
Three months ago, fans would have been excited for this matchup. Jonathan Smith should have been preparing his team for an upset win against a national championship-caliber team.
It’s funny how many things can change in three months, isn’t it?
MSU has crashed and burned under Smith in his second season, and it might be worse in Happy Valley. Penn State has already fired James Franklin after an abysmal start, and star quarterback Drew Allar is done for the year.
It’s a reset year for the Nittany Lions, while the Spartans have a decision to make about Smith’s future at the end of the season. That’s why these next three games are so important for him.
Because his job depends on it.
Smith's MSU legacy is on the line
MSU was 3-0 after the first three games of 2025, poised to be more competitive in Big Ten play than it was last season. That has not been the case at all; in fact, it’s been the complete opposite.
The Spartans have lost every game in conference play this season by an average of nearly 15 points. The three-point loss to Minnesota was their only single-digit conference loss, and many would argue they should have won the game.
That’s another problem. There have been multiple games throughout Smith’s short tenure at MSU in which his team has been competitive but could not get over the hump and win.
The Boston College game last season. The Michigan game. The Nebraska game this season. One could argue this year’s Michigan game, too.
That is not a sign of a coach who knows how to call the winning play or put his players in a position for success. Why are we supposed to believe that will happen in these next three games?
MSU is not projected to win against PSU by ESPN Analytics. The Spartans aren’t favored against Iowa next week, either.
That leaves a Maryland game at Ford Field to close out the season, and MSU is a slight underdog, according to those same analytics. Smith’s Spartans will be up against it in their last three games.
Smith has not exactly rallied his players in big games, either. And every game the rest of the way is a big game.
Smith slowly built his Oregon State Beavers into a force in college football, but he hasn’t been awarded the same time in East Lansing. And he won’t.
New Athletic Director J Batt didn’t hire Smith, so he has no ties to him. If he is losing games and discouraging donors, Batt may consider cutting ties and hiring his own coach.
However, if Smith wins these next three games, Batt may consider giving him another season and investing a substantial amount of money into the program, allowing him to acquire talent and win more games in 2026.
That will only happen if he wins all three games. If he wins two and finishes 5-7, does that really signal growth from the football program under Smith?
Smith knows how important these next few games are for the sake of his job. The team has failed to win a single Big Ten game, so rattling off three feels improbable.
Does that mean the writing is already on the wall?
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Carter Landis studied journalism at Michigan State University, where I graduated in May of 2022. He is currently a sports reporter for a local television station and is a writer covering the Michigan State Spartans