Why Michigan State Can Take Down UConn During Sweet 16

It's Sweet Sixteen game day in the nation's capital.

Third-seeded Michigan State (27-7) is seeking another Elite Eight berth, but a 2-seeded UConn (31-5) program that is deadly on the biggest stages awaits. The Huskies have won the national title each of the last four times they've gotten this far, though MSU is the last program to beat them in the second or third weekend, doing so during the 2009 Final Four.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo watches from the sideline against North Dakota State during the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Still, Connecticut is 15-1 across its last 16 NCAA tournament games. The Huskies are a team good enough to go all the way again, but they've also been plagued by inconsistencies that have led to bad losses for a team of their caliber.

Sweet Sixteen games are difficult, though (to state the obvious). The NCAA Tournament wouldn't be very entertaining if the games at this stage were easy for one side. Even though MSU is a slight underdog in this one, there are a handful of reasons to think it can win.

Izzo's Success as Underdog

There is not a coach in college basketball history with more wins as a worse seed during the NCAA Tournament than Tom Izzo. He's 15-12 during his career as the lower-seeded team.

Experience matters in this tournament, and MSU has a coach with as much of it as anybody. UConn's Dan Hurley is still a very, very successful coach --- he's burned the brightest among both of them with his back-to-back titles --- but he's got a ways to go before he can match Izzo's longevity.

Fear Fears

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. drives against North Dakota State during the first round of the NCAA Tournament — Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. drives to the basket against North Dakota State during the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Having Jeremy Fears Jr. as your point guard also really helps. Elite guard play is one of the things that comes up again and again when coaches discuss what wins games at this phase in the season. Well, Fears is as good as anyone.

Fears has exploded this season, averaging 15.3 points and a nation-leading 9.4 assists per game, earning AP second-team All-American honors and making all-conference first-team. His vision on the court, his defense, and the edge he plays with (to an extent) are all things that keep MSU around against elite competition.

Better Three-Point Shooting

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) takes a shot during the second half against the North Dakota State Bison during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

It's kind of amazing that last year's team won the Big Ten by three games and got to the Elite Eight while being a pretty dreadful three-point shooting team. The 2024-25 Spartans only made 31.1% of their threes, ranking 317th in the nation. This year's squad is up at 36.5% from long range, good for 41st in the country.

It's gotten better lately, too. During Michigan State's three total postseason games (NCAA and Big Ten Tournaments), it has shot 46.4% from behind the arc. Fears, Trey Fort, Jaxon Kohler, and Coen Carr are all guys who had generally been struggling from three in recent weeks and months, but they've been seeing it drop more often at the very end here.

Michigan State's Trey Fort defends an inbounds pass during a game against Maryland at the Breslin Center on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI