Assessing Minnesota's NCAA Tournament chances after three straight losses

The Gophers still control their own destiny when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.

Feb 2, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Dawn Plitzuweit on the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Gophers women's basketball suffered their third straight loss on Thursday night against Iowa. According to metrics and NCAA Tournament projections, it seems as if they still control their own destiny to go dancing this March.

According to the latest NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, Minnesota is ranked 29th in the country. As one of the biggest metrics the selection committee looks at when choosing at-large teams for the NCAA Tournament, it's a big plus that the Gophers still find themselves inside the top 30.

ESPN's Charlie Creme released an updated Bracketology on Friday morning and the Gophers remained among the 'Last Four Byes,' a place they've been for the better part of this season. That means there are still four teams he projects to have a worse resume than Minnesota.

Feb. 7 Bracketology update | Screenshot via: ESPN.com

Minnesota is still searching for its first Quad 1 win of the season, which is a victory over a team ranked 1-30 in the NET at home or 1-75 on the road. The path starts with a borderline must-win Quad 2 opportunity against Indiana at home on Sunday and then a Quad 1 game on the road against Ohio State next Thursday.

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"You're searching right now for ways to score, you're searching for ways to finish plays and you're searching for ways to get big stops and capitalize," head coach Dawn Plitzuweit said after Thursday's loss to Iowa. "It's important for us right now that we've got to regroup and we got to do it fast."

The Gophers' blowout victories in the nonconference have solidified their NET ranking, but their NCAA Tournament resume is still lacking a marquee victory. Minnesota has four, maybe five chances remaining against teams projected to make the tournament, but there are only six games remaining on the Big Ten regular season schedule.

If the Gophers are able to beat either Ohio State or Michigan State on the road, it would be very hard to leave them outside of the NCAA Tournament. If they lose both those games and then beat Indiana, Purdue, Oregon and Washington, it will likely be a stressful Selection Sunday.