Predicting Minnesota’s NCAA Tournament Path: A UCLA Rematch Could Be Waiting

The Gophers could have a tricky path to this year's Final Four in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Gophers' starting lineup waiting to be announced against USC earlier this season. | Picture credit: University of Minnesota Athletics

The Gophers are officially back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2017-18 season. They were officially named a four seed during Sunday's bracket reveal. What are their odds of making a long run? Let's break down their chances.

First round vs. Green Bay

University of Wisconsin-Green Bay head coach Kayla Karius gives instructions during a basketball game against the University of New Hampshire on Nov. 13, 2025, at the Kress Center in Green Bay, Wis. UW-Green Bay defeated New Hampshire 76-64. | Sarah Kloepping/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Minnesota has opened as massive 22.5-point betting favorites for its opening round game against Green Bay on Friday night at Williams Arena. The Phoenix had a regular-season win over Kansas State at home, along with close losses by four points at Wisconsin and five points at Washington. The oddsmakers still expect the Gophers to roll.

The Gophers were 13-3 at home in the regular season. Their three losses were to Maryland, UCLA and Michigan State. Their seven nonconference wins at the Barn came by an average of 45.7 points per game, yes, you read that right. I expect a comfortable win over Green Bay.

• Prediction: Minnesota 88, Green Bay 65

Second round vs. Ole Miss/Gonzaga

Ole Miss Rebels forward Cotie McMahon (32) drives to the basket Saturday, March 7, 2026, during the SEC Women's Basketball Tournament semifinals game against the Texas Longhorns at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Texas Longhorns won 85-68. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ole Miss opened as 12.5-point favorites over Gonzaga. For the sake of this argument, let's predict that the Rebels take care of business. That means Minnesota would host the sixth-place team from the SEC on Sunday with a birth to the Sweet 16 on the line.

The Rebels are led by Ohio State transfer guard Cotie McMahon, who's averaging 19.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game this season. After starting well in nonconference play, they struggled near the end of the season with only three wins in their final nine games.

If this game were on a neutral site, Ole Miss might be able to give the Gophers some trouble. I expect Minnesota to lean on its home crowd and punch a trip to the Sweet 16 for the first time in more than 20 years.

• Prediction: Minnesota 72, Ole Miss 60

Sweet 16 vs. UCLA/Cap Baptist or Princeton/Oklahoma State

UCLA Bruins center Lauren Betts (51) and UCLA Bruins guard Kiki Rice (1) high-five UCLA Bruins guard Gianna Kneepkens (8) on Sunday, March 8, 2026, during the Big Ten Tournament Championship game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. UCLA Bruins defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes, 96-45, for back to back Big Ten championships. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

UCLA has lost only one game this season, and that was on a neutral floor against fellow one-seed Texas in November. The Bruins had only one game decided by single digits in Big Ten play, including a run to the tournament title in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Minnesota did play them at the Barn this season, but that game was an 18-point loss. This hypothetical matchup would take place in Sacramento. I struggle to find a way for the Gophers to win this game, and I think their run ends here.

• Prediction: UCLA 81, Minnesota 70

Team odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.