Way-Too-Early Big Ten Basketball Tiers: Where Do the Gophers Fit for 2026-27?

What is Minnesota's realistic 2026-27 outlook after a chaotic offseason?

Mar 7, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Niko Medved looks on during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The deadline for NBA Draft prospects to decide if they want to return to college or stay in the draft was on Wednesday night, so we now have a clearer look at rosters for the 2026-27 season. After a productive offseason for Niko Medved and the Gophers, let's break down where they fit in the Big Ten outlook for next season.

Tier 1: National title contenders

• 1. Illinois
• 2. Michigan
• 3. Michigan State

Apr 22, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Michigan State head basketball coach Tom Izzo watches during the first half of the game between the Detroit Pistons and the Orlando Magic during game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

This tier is pretty cut and dry. Illinois is going to be my preseason pick to win the conference, especially after the return of Andrej Stojakovic. It would be naive to doubt Dusty May and Michigan after alst season, and Tom Izzo might have one deep run elft in him after the return of potential preseason player of the year Jeremy Fears Jr.

Tier 2: Potential for a deep run

• 4. USC
• 5. Wisconsin
• 6. Nebraska
• 7. Iowa
• 8. Purdue
• 9. Ohio State

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) drives to the basket against the Washington Huskies during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

These teams have more answers than questions. The USC roster is the best on this tier, but I will always have doubts about a West Coast team surviving the Big Ten gauntlet. Wisconsin had another productive offseason, and they could surprise some people this season.

The return of Pryce Sandfort probably gives Nebraska an NCAA Tournament floor. It would be naive to ever doubt Ben McCollum and Iowa at this point, along with Matt Painter and Purdue, despite having underwhelming top-end talent. I have my doubts about Jake Diebler as a head coach, but he will have his most talented roster at Ohio State this season.

Tier 3: NCAA Tournament would be a success

• 10. Indiana
• 11. UCLA
• 12. Maryland

Feb 21, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Markus Burton (3) warms up before the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

These teams have NCAA Tournament-caliber rosters, but I have doubts about other factors. Indiana made serious upgrades in the offseason, but I will simply wait-and-see before having high expectations for the Hoosiers. UCLA has the talent for another tournament, but Mick Cronin needs to pull himself together, and Maryland could have a major bounce-back season in year two under Buzz Williams.

Tier 4: Frisky

• 13. Minnesota
• 14. Rutgers
• 15. Oregon

Mar 4, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Niko Medved claps his hands against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

I truly believe the Gophers have a possibility of making the NCAA Tournament next season, but it shouldn't be "tournament or bust," so that's why they fall in the frisky tier. It wouldn't shock me if any of these three teams work their way on the bubble, but they will have to prove it first and make significant improvements from last season.

Tier 5: Bottom feeders

• 16. Northwestern
• 17. Washington
• 18. Penn State

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Huskies head coach Danny Sprinkle directs his team against the Southern California Trojans during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I'd be pleasantly surprised if any of these three teams make the NCAA Tournament. That doesn't mean that I don't think they can be competitive in Big Ten play, but they're missing those roster pieces that could take them to the next level.