Here's how Mississippi State could upset No. 6 LSU
Even Bully himself could admit that Mississippi State is a big underdog headed into its first game of the season on Saturday at No. 6 LSU. Depending upon where you look, the defending national champion Tigers are favored by about three scores – somewhere in the 17-point range. Still, games aren't decided based on the odds.
So what can Mississippi State do to put itself in the best possible position for an upset? Here are five things that likely have to happen for the Bulldogs to usher in the head coach Mike Leach era with an unexpected win down in Baton Rouge:
MSU QB K.J. Costello has a huge day
Of all the things on this list, this one is the most important. Because if K.J. Costello doesn't produce, that means the offense didn't produce. This isn't some balanced system where the rushing game can alleviate the pressure. No, if Leach's offense is going to work, it means his quarterback ends the day with a ton of passing yardage and several scores through the air. And yes, this is going to be the case for every signal caller that ever plays for Leach while he's coaching the maroon and white. So what's a big day at LSU look like for Costello? It feels like somewhere around 325 yards passing with 3 touchdowns at minimum. And of course, one (or no) interceptions. If you told me Costello threw two or three picks, I'd say the Bulldogs almost assuredly lost.
The Bulldog secondary plays better than expected
Truth be told, the bar is really low for this Mississippi State secondary. Or at least it should be. Few could expect the Bulldogs to be extremely stout in the defensive backfield given that there are three new starters, and the two starters that are back – as talented as they may be – don't exactly have long track records. Maybe Esaias Furdge is a fantastic corner, but we haven't seen it yet. A lot of folks that follow the Bulldogs closely didn't even know who Londyn Craft was until he sat atop the depth chart as the starting strong safety when that was revealed on Monday. And several previous and current coaches love safety Fred Peters, but he didn't play much at all last year. Then, there's the returning starters in corner Martin Emerson and versatile Marcus Murphy. Emerson is just entering his sophomore season and Murphy, as athletic and skilled as he is, missed eight games of his sophomore season due to suspension a year ago. So while the expectations for Emerson and Murphy are high, the resumes are short on accolades. And depth? Well, that's a far bigger question than the stuff we've just mentioned. So yes, the bar is low. If the Bulldogs can just exceed it though and be only an average secondary, that might be enough, assuming the offense is as explosive as hoped.
State makes LSU QB Myles Brennan uncomfortable
There's already going to be a lot of pressure on Myles Brennan between his ears. He's taking over the defending national champs and is the heir to the Joe Burrow throne. He's tasked with keeping one of the most impressive offenses in college football history chugging along. And oh, he's making his first career start in a league game in Death Valley. Yep, that's a lot of pressure. The Bulldogs need to add to it. Whether it's ends Kobe Jones or Marquiss Spencer coming off the edge or some exotic blitz drawn up by defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, the Bulldogs have to force Brennan into mistakes. That also helps out the aforementioned inexperienced MSU secondary. If none of this happens and Brennan gets comfortable and has time to pick apart that young group of Bulldog defensive backs, this one could get ugly.
MSU special teams don't have a 2019 encore
Just mentioning the words 'special teams' might've sent a shiver down the spine of those that watched Mississippi State a year ago. How many times did you see it? A muff here. A botch there. A coverage mistake. It seemed the Bulldogs found a new gaffe on special teams each week. Well none of that can't happen if MSU has any aspirations to walk out of Baton Rouge with a win. If there's an opportunity for a field goal, the Bulldogs have to make it. Conversely, MSU can't be giving away points in the return game. State already faces a tremendous battle in the other two phases of the game. They can't flub this one in any way and expect victory.
Mississippi State's O-line is as solid as it seems
You can question pretty much every position group on State's roster. Can K.J. Costello run the Air Raid? Can the receivers finally be playmakers after so many years of not really being much of a factor? How will Kylin Hill adjust to a different style of play? Is there enough depth at defensive line and linebacker? And we've already picked apart the secondary. Well as for the offensive line, it has quietly developed a reputation this preseason of being a solid group it appears the Bulldogs can rely on. Well they're about to trot out in front of the world with a chance to prove it. And they better be. Because if the State offensive front isn't good, it'll be like trying to get the Air Raid off the ground with a broken wing.
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