Column: Mizzou's Loss to Arkansas Doesn't Change Trajectory in Tournament Play

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — If the strength of the Southeastern Conference has taught anything to its teams this season, it's that every game is equally as winnable as it is losable.

Fresh off a 110-98 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide Wednesday night, the No. 15-ranked Missouri Tigers were cruising entering a road matchup with the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers had clearly been the better team throughout the year — and last defeated them 83-65 on Jan. 18 — but the SEC offered it another taste of its unpredictability.

Arkansas was the clear trap game left on Missouri's calendar. Yes, the Vanderbilt Commodores pose a threat on the road and the No. 17-ranked Kentucky Wildcats are its last opponent in the top 25, but no team has its backs facing the wall more than the Razorbacks.

To have a case for the NCAA Tournament, Arkansas' path needs to be nearly flawless. It also has one more top 25 opponent in No. 21-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs that could still boost its case, but the Tigers served as a near must-win for the Razorbacks to make themselves a strong pitch. Especially being at home this time around, the cards were certainly on the table to begin with.

The manner in which Missouri collapsed in the second half isn't encouraging, but it doesn't need to cause panic, either. Obviously, the 12-of-36 shooting from behind the arc, 20 less free throw attempts and allowing Arkansas to score 30 points off turnovers are all less than ideal in any game, much less one in either tournament.

All of these issues can be recognized, but on the same token, not be used to put down the Tigers. The loss doesn't change anything about where they are positioned — they're a tournament lock and just as dangerous as an opponent as they were a couple of days ago. That hasn't changed with one loss against a team playing at their best.

From here on out for Missouri, it's all about positioning. It's nearly a guarantee it holds a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but winning out could've put it in the contention of a No. 3. That scenario is probably unlikely given this loss to an unranked opponent, but it wasn't a necessity in ensuring that it has the potential to make it far in March.

Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson III (0) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forwards at Bud Walton Arena. — Feb 22, 2025; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson III (0) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forwards Jonas Aidoo (9) and guard D.J. Wagner (21) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

A lot of what took place against the Razorbacks hasn't happened often previously in the year, and probably won't too many more times if any. Caleb Grill has been one of the country's best 3-point shooters for the entirety of the season, but had a rare poor shooting performance with a 2-of-12 clip from behind the arc.

Sure, off-nights happen, but to imagine Grill's biggest strength falling by the wayside that much seems unrealistic going forward. The guard had open looks throughout the game that he normally would've hit, he just couldn't find the bottom of the net on this ocassion.

Josh Gray wouldn't have changed the Tigers' struggles on free throws or turnovers, but the center's absence was felt nevertheless. He's been a crucial part of the defense inside the paint and on ball screens, and without his traditional big man presence, there was a void at the center position.

"Josh is a very important piece to us. At the end of the day, when you look at his experience, his size, his ability to protect the paint. ball screen defense, different things like that, he kind of relieves us in that manner," coach Dennis Gates said following the game. "Of course, we missed him. Of course, there's no doubt about it."

Missouri has largely gotten lucky with the injury bug to this point — aside from Grill's neck injury in non-conference play — but they're bound to come up. Gray missing action isn't an excuse for the loss, but there is a significant difference with and without him. A fully healthy Tigers are, of course, a greater team.

Not everything can go the way you want, especially in the SEC. Arkansas got the upper hand on this occurrence, but Missouri's stock isn't going to drop. It doesn't have a chance at cracking the top 10 anymore, but an unfavored road game after three-straight wins shouldn't alter its position hardly any.

For the time being, there shouldn't be any worries about the Tigers. Nothing changes about how far this team can go, even if the loss was underwhelming on the surface.

"We learn from these types of game, you know, focus on what we could've done right," Marques Warrick said. "The things that we didn't do well is what we do every day, every single day. So there's nothing new, there's nothing that's going to change in terms of that stuff."