NC State’s NCAA Tournament Hopes Suddenly in Serious Trouble
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RALEIGH — When the buzzer sounded and Stanford walked off the hardwood at the Lenovo Center victorious, NC State's NCAA Tournament hopes took a major hit. The Wolfpack ended the regular season with a 19-12 overall record, while finishing 10-8 in conference play. The team lost six of its final seven games, including the last four games.
Now, Will Wade and his first Wolfpack group face a tedious situation heading to the ACC Tournament as a No. 7 seed. Not long ago, NC State was a lock to play in the big dance, but the circumstances changed significantly as it crumbled over the final three weeks of the season.
Where do things stand?
Before the loss to Stanford, NC State landed as the third No. 9 seed according to the Bracket Matrix, a service that collects the predictions from over 100 bracketologists and averages them out. Only a pair of the bracketologists predicted the Wolfpack to be an 11-seed, which would almost certainly send Wade to the First Four round in Dayton, Ohio, for the start of the tournament.
It's unlikely that NC State falls farther than a 10-seed before the ACC Tournament, so the comfort is still there for making the NCAA Tournament, at least for now. As things stand, the Wolfpack has a 5-8 record in Quadrant 1 games and ranks in the top 40 of the NET rankings. The Stanford loss won't drop the Pack much lower than things currently sit.
Where things get hairy for Wade and NC State is if it loses a fifth-straight game to open up the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack would head into Selection Sunday without a 20th win, a mark that feels critical for any team trying to make the NCAA Tournament. Three of the four teams considered by the NET to be the "Last Four In" have 20 wins, with Cincinnati being the exception at 17-13.
The NET isn't the sole criterion for making the NCAA Tournament, however. Wins above bubble became one of the more controversial, but key metrics used by the committee in 2025 and figures to be crucial once again in 2026. NC State holds a +1.05 WAB score following the loss to Stanford, which ranks 43rd in the country. A handful of bubble teams rank higher than the Pack in this stat as of Saturday.
The simple solution
The simplest path for NC State to secure a safe bid to the NCAA Tournament is also the most obvious one: win games. It's likely the Wolfpack gets another crack at Stanford, a team it just lost to by one point while leaving nine points at the charity stripe. If Wade's group can get a win over the Cardinal with another try, it should have a clear path to the dance.
Another loss to the Cardinal would more than likely mark a fourth Quadrant 2 loss for the Wolfpack. While not fatal, other bubble teams would still have opportunities to bolster their resumes, while NC State would be forced to wait anxiously for a few days before Selection Sunday. All that's left to do is to win.
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Tucker Sennett graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in Sports Journalism from the esteemed Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. A former basketball player, he has gained valuable experience working at Cronkite News and brings a deep passion for sports and reporting to his role as the NC State Wolfpack Beat Writer On SI.
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