Will Wolfpack Win Fifth in a Row Over UNC?

RALEIGH — NC State, coming off one of its best wins of the season to secure bowl eligibility, is now set for one of its most important matchups of the 2025 season. The Wolfpack will welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels to Carter-Finley Stadium for the final game of the regular season and battle for in-state bragging rights over one another.

The two schools, separated by just over 22 miles, have a disdain for one another, stretching the rivalry back all the way to 1894. Saturday's matchup will mark the 115th playing of the rivalry game, with NC State head coach Dave Doeren looking for his ninth win over the Tar Heels and fifth in a row as the leader of the Pack. Can he pull it off, or will Bill Belichick salvage what has been a lost season?

How improved are the Tar Heels?

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick with the team before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Tar Heels and Belichick spent much of the 2025 season as one of the laughingstocks of college football. His first campaign has been marred by off-the-field drama and being outclassed most weeks on the field. However, UNC has recovered down the stretch, playing close games against a ranked Virginia Team and the Duke Blue Devils.

North Carolina's defense has been a major piece in that turnaround, as that group improved massively from the 48-14 drubbing it received in the opening loss against TCU. However, much of that improvement came from playing against less-than-stellar offensive teams like Stanford and Syracuse.

Belichick already described NC State sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey as a "problem." The iconic coach isn't wrong, as Bailey has been one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC when playing in Carter-Finley Stadium. In his first game against the Tar Heels as a freshman, Bailey threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for 54 yards as well.

Assuming Bailey can take care of the football and roll some of the consistency he showed in the win over Florida State into the UNC game, it might be a long night for the Tar Heel defense, despite those improvements.

Stoppable force meets movable object

Nov 21, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) runs with the ball past NC State Wolfpack defensive end Sabastian Harsh (54) during the second half of the game at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

NC State's defense has been far from elite throughout the 2025 season; however, it is coming off its best performance since the opening weeks of the season. The other thing that group has going for it is the fact that the Tar Heel offense has been nothing short of a disaster for much of the season. UNC averages just 17.1 points per game, good for 125th in the nation.

South Alabama transfer quarterback Gio Lopez hasn't been a threat downfield all season long, meaning NC State's diminished secondary won't be tested too much throughout the game. For the Wolfpack defense, the game will be won and lost in the trenches, with linebacker play being a premium against North Carolina's quality running backs, Demon June and Davion Gause.

Oct 31, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Demon June (12) is greeted by tight end Conner Cox (81) after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

There's also the issue of penalties for North Carolina. The Tar Heels averaged 6.4 flags per game, often hurting the offense and setting Lopez up well behind the sticks. Already lacking arm talent and drop-back passing ability, the Tar Heel offense can be easily neutralized by forcing them to play behind schedule.

NC State's defense hasn't been an elite group against mobile quarterbacks, however. Florida State signal caller Tommy Castellanos didn't play his best game, throwing for two interceptions against the Wolfpack on Friday, but he did have success running the ball himself. He ran for 76 yards on NC State, but the Seminoles only scored 11 points in the loss and suffered several costly turnovers.

Oct 25, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

NC State's defense allowed 31.7 points on average throughout the first 11 games of the season. That number was somewhat inflated by blowout losses to Miami, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Still, the Wolfpack is prone to rushing attacks, allowing over 150 yards on the ground per game. If the Pack can apply more pressure, it should be a better day than usual.

The final prediction

Anything less than a win for Doeren and the Wolfpack would end the season in a highly disappointing fashion for NC State. A seven-win season with a victory over the Tar Heels would erase much of the negativity from the first 11 weeks of the year.

Bailey should put together a quality performance that will be enough to propel the Wolfpack to a dominant victory over its rivals from Chapel Hill. NC State beats North Carolina 42-14.

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