ESPN Bracketology Projection Gives NC State Good News

The Wolfpack got a positive update from ESPN's latest bracketology projections

Dec 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack huddle with head coach Will Wade during the second half of the game against UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Part of NC State's decision to hire Will Wade to replace Kevin Keatts as the men's basketball coach was to be more competitive and become a consistent presence in the NCAA Tournament.

The team has made some progress, turning over a large portion of its roster through the transfer portal and entering this week with a 3-1 record in the ACC and a 12-5 record overall.

Jan 10, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Terrance Arceneaux (21) passes the ball as Florida State Seminoles guard Kobe MaGee (5) looks on during the second half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Their previous March Madness runs have brought plenty of excitement and energy to the program and its fan base, but where do their chances of returning to the Tournament after missing it last season stand? According to the latest projection from ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Wolfpack has a good shot.

NC State's Draw

Lunardi has NC State safely in the field, avoiding his "Bubble Watch" section altogether and receiving more confidence than teams like Texas A&M, Ohio State, UCLA, New Mexico, Kentucky, Indiana, and more. He currently projects NC State as a 9-seed in the South (Houston) Region, up one seed line from his previous update. In this scenario, the Wolfpack faces the 8-seeded Iowa Hakeyes, with the winner taking on either 1-seed Iowa State or Prairie View A&M/UMES -- if the 16-seed can pull off an unlikely upset.

Iowa’s Tavion Banks (6) takes the court ahead of the basketball game against the Illinois Fighting Illini Jan. 11, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first weekend would take place in St. Louis, and the rest of the projected bracket features teams like Purdue, BYU, Alabama, Virginia, and SMU, who would all be possibilities in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.

The Rest of the ACC

Overall, Lunardi's projection has eight teams from the ACC in the NCAA Tournament field, the thrid-most of any conference. 

Jan 10, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) greets fans after a game against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke leads the way as the No. 2 seed in the East region, playing the winner of Indiana and Georgia. Miami is the projected No.9 seed in that region, revealing a direct comparison to the Wolfpack. The two schools have the same projected seed and are a half-game apart in the ACC standings. They'll only play once in the regular season, so that could be a huge opportunity for separation.

Lunardi also gives the ACC a monopoly on 5-seeds. Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, and Clemson were all given 5-seeds in the latest projection, displaying some kind of mediocrity in the ACC but also a need for teams behind Duke to separate themselves from the pack.  SMU is the other ACC team in the projected bracket, claiming the 7-seed in the South and playing Kentucky in St. Louis.

Jan 10, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) shoots the ball past Florida State Seminoles guard Martin Somerville (1) during the second half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

There's still a big chunk of the season left, but after missing the 2025 NCAA Tournament, NC State's early results under Will Wade bode well for a postseason berth and achieving a major goal in his first season at the helm.