Exclusive: ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi Shows How Nebraska Can Make the NCAA Tournament

ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi says Nebraska has a clear path to an NCAA Tournament bid and he outlined exactly what the Huskers have to do.

Lunardi, who created Bracketology in the 1990s on “napkins and legal pads” to predict the NCAA Tournament field, told Huskermax.com in an exclusive phone interview that the 10-0 Huskers will likely wind up an 8-seed in March.

“I think that the metrics all indicate to me that they have staying power,” Lunardi said. “Now, you know, they’re not going to go 16 and 4 in the Big Ten. They can go 12 and 8. A 12-8 Big Ten team is going to the tournament.

“This year they’ve already got a couple [of big wins]. And they’re going to win home games against other tournament teams.

“They might not win a home game against, and I don’t know: Do they play Purdue and Michigan at home? [Purdue at home; Michigan on the road.] But they’re going to be over .500 in the Big Ten. And that will get them in and probably get them an 8 [seed] or better seed.”

Nebraska has been in the NCAA Tournament only once since 2013-14, so it’s a big deal to get to March Madness. It’s also validation for coach Fred Hoiberg’s program and many other programs that make the field of 68.

The Huskers last made the field in 2023-24. The Huskers have made eight appearances in the NCAA Tournament but have lost in the first round every time.

“Obviously they can score,” Lunardi said. “He’s [Hoiberg] known for for being an offensive coach. And they have a star [Rienk Mast, among others].

“It’s also become a really tough place to play [Pinnacle Bank Arena]. And in a league like that, if you can win 90 percent of your home games, in the conference or even 80 percent, you’re going to have enough quality wins to at least be in the conversation.

“And, after this [90-60 win over Wisconsin on Wednesday], I think I have them up to a 6 [seed] today. The other day was 7. So overnight they went on the overall board from like 27 to 24 [overall ranking].

“So that makes them the last 6 [seed]. You can scoop the world on that. Because I won’t have a full bracket up until next week.”

Huskers racking up wins

Nebraska’s 10-0 start has been impressive with wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State, Creighton and Wisconsin. None of those teams are ranked but they are quality wins that will matter in March when the field is selected.

What will matter most will be how the 23rd-ranked Huskers perform in their Big Ten games.

Nebraska has shown an ability to score and defend, an impressive combination. Wisconsin came to Lincoln on Wednesday averaging 87.9 points per game. The Badgers were shut down in Nebraska’s 90-60 win.

The Huskers are ranked 78th nationally in points scored — out of 361 teams — at 83.9 points per game. They are ranked 58th in points allowed at 67.1.

Nebraska will get the test of its early season Saturday at 13th-ranked Illinois (7-2).

Keeping an eye on Huskers

Lunardi said he is going to follow Nebraska closely all season, but not for a reason Huskers fans will cherish. It's that 0-8 record in NCAA games.

“It’s going to be one of my storylines all year long,” Lunardi said. “Because they’re the only power conference school that’s never won a tournament game.

“If you think about the current landscape. And to be a power conference school and never have won a tournament game that’s borderline impossible.

“And what I’m saying is, it’s not just about them getting in. It’s about them wearing white [uniforms, designating the better seed], meaning they’re an 8 [seed, going against a 9-seed].

“And theoretically favored [in its first-round game]. Because I would love to see them get off the schneid.”

The big B1G

Big Ten basketball is a powerhouse this season. In Lunardi’s last Bracketology, he had 11 Big Ten teams going to the tournament.

“Now the league is brutal at the top, obviously," said Lunardi, who was on the phone from snowy Syracuse. He was there to call Saint Joseph’s game on the radio against the Orange.

“But I mean, they [Huskers] don’t need to be in the top three. They just need to be in the top half. Now there’s a couple borderline [teams]. But, they're going to have the most teams this year.”

The Big Ten hasn’t won the NCAA Tournament since Tom Izzo and Michigan State defeated Florida, 89-76, in 2000.

Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn looks for open teammate against Iowa State. Both teams are among the best in the nation. — Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn looks for an open teammate against Iowa State. Both teams are among the best in the nation. | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

“It’s a quarter-century exactly [since the Big Ten won the national championship],” Lunardi said. “I mean, with Purdue and Michigan this year, if they don’t break through …

“If you made a short list of teams that are genuinely the best, like they could win the title: Purdue, Michigan, Duke, UConn.

“They might be the only league that has two teams [that could win the title] The Big 12 probably has two teams, too. It’s not inconceivable that Purdue and Michigan are the two best teams in the country.”

Even after Purdue lost at home the other day to Iowa State, 81-58?

“I know, they did get spanked, but they got spanked at home by [undefeated] Iowa State,” Lunardi said. “They’ve also done some spanking.

“I’m not going to give up on Purdue because of one game. But Michigan’s great. Just ask Villanova [which lost to the Wolverines on Tuesday, 89-61, in Ann Arbor].”

Can Huskers keep it up?

“The real question is, do they have the staying power to keep it up year over year?” Lunardi said.

“And, it’s hard to know that year-to-year, because teams can kind of change their payroll, right? Like if John Middleton sold the Phillies, we might not have Kyle Schwarber, right? We might get El Cheapo or somebody.”

How Bracketology started

“I became a bracketologist by accident,” Lunardi said. He was working for Blue Ribbon Yearbook covering college basketball and projecting the NCAA field and doing previews for every possible tournament team.

“I remember literally drawing little brackets with UCLA, Marquette, North Carolina and Penn. And thinking, wouldn’t this be cool?

“I approached ESPN when ESPN.com started [in 1995]. That was fertile ground for nerdy kind of sports content at the time. And this would certainly fit in that bucket. They were looking for content.”

Nebraska guard Jared Garcia on defense against Wisconsin guard Jack Janicki. Bracketology has Huskers currently as a 7-seed. — Nebraska guard Jared Garcia on defense against Wisconsin guard Jack Janicki. Bracketology has the Huskers currently as a 7-seed. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Lunardi said he used a connection at Blue Ribbon Yearbook to reach out to ESPN.

“I said, I’ll give you my bracket projections from February on, if you’ll post them on your website, with our phone number to buy our book,” Lunardi said.

“The bracket content was an instant thing. Because there was nothing like it. If you’re a fan of college basketball , what are you thinking about in February? Are we going to make it? And I was giving an answer to the question when the committee was essentially unavailable and out of touch to the average fan.”

Lunardi, a former Director of Marketing and Broadcast Services at Saint Joseph’s University in Philadelphia, has been uncannily accurate about correctly selecting all 68 teams in the field.

“It’s 30-plus years now and my average is one or two misses a year,” said Lunardi, who said he spends 4-5 hours a day going through results from the night before. “I score myself more on seeding.

“The truth is, of course, I want somebody to say, ‘We got all 68 [teams] right.’ That makes the headline but the last team or two, it’s a coin flip. What I feel on Saturday night might change by Monday.

“And it’s the same for the [12] people [NCAA Tournament Selection Committee] in the room. They’re literally splitting hairs that are so fine [among teams]. It’s only when they completely go off the board with a team that I’ll go on TV and say they screwed up.”

Lunardi said he does Bracketology by himself. We asked if anyone tries to influence his picks. Does [former Duke player and fellow ESPN analyst] Jay Bilas or anyone try to sway him.

ESPN's Jay Bilas speaks during ESPN's 'College GameDay' broadcast. | Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

“No. I do my best to block it out,” Lunardi said. “When I hear — it could be our network or anybody else — somebody going on and on about a team. Like, this is a deserving team or this team is overrated or I don’t know why so-and-so is getting so much attention and the committee has to look at this or that.

“I have found that I’m more accurate when I literally ignore the rest of the world.

“My workload and profile and visibility on the TV side skyrockets after the Super Bowl. Because then there’s that 4- or 5-week period where college basketball is the center of attention.

“Not today. But if it was February 11th, instead of December 11th, my life would go from 40 hours a week to 75.

“I’ll be basically on call to all of our [ESPN] platforms. I mean, theoretically, I’m on call all season.

“February and the first half of March is what they call bracket season. And I’ll have a little studio up there [at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn.].

“And usually it’s the big game nights, like Big Monday, Thursday nights, definitely Saturdays and I sit in that studio, our little bunker, on a Saturday from noon to midnight.

“And they just feed me into whatever broadcast window I’m needed. It could be the 4 o’clock game on the SEC Network between two bubble teams. That’s more important content. I don’t need to go on during Duke-Carolina, right? Because they’re already in, generally.”

Huskers’ future this season?

“Tell the Nebraska people, I’ll try and get them in San Diego for the [first round of the] tournament,” Lunardi said with a laugh.

But then he shifted direction. Lunardi, a Philly guy, suggested his home city could host the Huskers.

“That’s pretty random [a first-round site in Philadelphia],” Lunardi said. “Here’s my prediction for the moment: Nebraska wins an 8-9 game in Philly and then plays [top-seeded] UConn.

“That’s why the [Sweet] 16 is hard [beating a No. 1-seeded UConn]. But it would be off the chart, right?

“And picture the excitement if they [Huskers] win a game. All of a sudden after never winning in the tournament, it’s Saturday or Sunday in March and they’re playing to go to the Sweet 16.”

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