Where Nebraska Must Stand for a Top Seed in the NCAA Tournament

Nebraska men's basketball is off to the best start in program history.

The Huskers are 20-0 and ranked in the top 10. Currently at No. 7 in the AP Poll, the Big Red are likely to move up even higher in Monday's release.

But where does Nebraska need to be when Selection Sunday rolls around in exactly seven weeks?

Current Metrics

While Nebraska is ranked highly in the AP and Coaches polls, those don't factor into the Selection Committee's decision. What goes into the process are a pair of metrics that we'll look at today: the NET and KenPom.

As of Sunday morning, Nebraska is No. 5 in the NET, behind Arizona, Michigan, Duke, and Gonzaga. In the KenPom, the Huskers are at 12, behind Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Houston, Purdue, Gonzaga, UConn, and Florida.

Fred Hoiberg has guided Nebrasketball to back-to-back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time in program history. | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

5 and 12. Remember those numbers as we look at the top four seeds over the last four tournaments to see what territory Nebraska is in and where the Huskers need to be when discussing potential seeding between now and then.

Let's also preface this with the fact that these numbers are determined comparatively to the opponents of the same season, meaning that one season could have had a stronger résumé needed for a one or a two seed compared to another.

4 Seeds

Year	Team	Record	NET	KenPom
2024-25	Arizona	22-12	12	14
2024-25	Maryland	25-8	10	13
2024-25	Texas A&M	22-10	18	17
2024-25	Purdue	22-11	19	19
2023-24	Auburn	27-7	5	4
2023-24	Alabama	21-11	9	13
2023-24	Duke	24-8	10	8
2023-24	Kansas	22-10	19	22
2022-23	Virginia	25-7	27	34
2022-23	Tennessee	23-10	4	6
2022-23	Indiana	22-11	30	30
2022-23	UConn	25-8	8	4
2021-22	Arkansas	25-8	20	20
2021-22	UCLA	25-7	10	7
2021-22	Illinois	22-9	15	17
2021-22	Providence	25-5	32	49

The average record for a 4-seed has been 23.5-8.9, with an average NET of 15.5 and KenPom of 17.3. Nebraska is ahead of pace for all of those numbers.

The strongest résumé to earn a 4-seed was Auburn in 2024. The Tigers went 27-7 and won the SEC, earning the only automatic bid for the seed line over the last four tournaments. They were also fifth in the NET and fourth in the KenPom. The Tigers lost in the first round to Yale.

Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze talks with center Dylan Cardwell (44) during the second half of a game against the Yale Bulldogs in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

There are a trio of weaker résumés to have earned a four.

Providence in 2022 went 25-5 but was 32nd in the NET and 49th in the KenPom. They made the Sweet 16 and fell to the 3-seed Kansas.

In 2023, Indiana went 22-11 and was 30th in the NET and the KenPom. Virginia went 25-7 and was 27th in the NET and 34th in the KenPom. Neither team made it to the second weekend.

3 Seeds

Year	Team	Record	NET	KenPom
2024-25	Wisconsin	26-9	15	11
2024-25	Texas Tech	25-8	7	7
2024-25	Iowa State	24-9	9	10
2024-25	Kentucky	22-11	14	16
2023-24	Illinois	26-8	13	10
2023-24	Baylor	23-10	15	14
2023-24	Kentucky	23-9	18	18
2023-24	Creighton	23-9	11	11
2022-23	Baylor	22-10	15	15
2022-23	Kansas State	23-9	24	24
2022-23	Xavier	25-9	22	16
2022-23	Gonzaga	28-5	6	8
2021-22	Texas Tech	25-9	9	9
2021-22	Purdue	27-7	13	14
2021-22	Tennessee	26-7	7	8
2021-22	Wisconsin	24-7	24	34

The average record for a 3-seed has been 24.5-8.5, with an average NET of 13.9 and KenPom of 14.1. Nebraska is ahead of pace for all of those numbers.

The strongest résumé to earn a 3-seed was Gonzaga in 2023. The Bulldogs went 28-5 and won the West Coast Conference. They were sixth in the NET and eighth in the KenPom. Gonzaga fell to UConn in the Elite Eight.

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme reacts with head coach Mark Few during the second half in the NCAA tournament West Regional final at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The weakest résumé to earn a 3-seed came in that same year. Kansas State went 23-9 but was 24th in both the NET and the KenPom. Nobody over the last four tournaments has been worse in either metric and earned a top-three seed. The Wildcats lost to the 9-seed Florida Atlantic in the Elite Eight.

2 Seeds

Year	Team	Record	NET	KenPom
2024-25	Alabama	25-8	6	6
2024-25	St. John's	30-4	13	12
2024-25	Michigan State	27-6	11	8
2024-25	Tennessee	27-7	5	5
2023-24	Iowa State	27-7	6	5
2023-24	Arizona	25-8	4	6
2023-24	Marquette	25-9	14	12
2023-24	Tennessee	24-8	7	7
2022-23	Arizona	28-6	10	10
2022-23	Marquette	28-6	12	12
2022-23	Texas	26-8	7	7
2022-23	UCLA	29-5	3	2
2021-22	Duke	28-6	12	12
2021-22	Kentucky	26-6	5	3
2021-22	Villanova	26-7	8	11
2021-22	Auburn	27-5	11	10

The average record for a 2-seed has been 26.8-6.6, with an average NET of 8.4 and KenPom of 8. Now we're in the territory of Nebraska's résumé from a metrics standpoint, though with a current NET of five, only three of the last 16 teams to be a 2-seed were fifth or better.

The strongest résumé to earn a 2-seed was UCLA in 2023, the second-to-last year of the old Pac-12 Conference. The Bruins went 29-5 and were sitting third in the NET and second in the KenPom. They would lose in the Sweet 16 to the 3-seed Gonzaga.

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Malachi Smith dribbles the ball against UCLA Bruins guard David Singleton. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The weakest résumé to garner a 2-seed was Marquette in 2024. The Golden Eagles were 25-9 and 14th in the NET with 12th in the KenPom. Marquette was upset in the Sweet 16 by 11-seed NC State.

1 Seeds

Year	Team	Record	NET	KenPom
2024-25	Duke	31-3	1	1
2024-25	Florida	30-4	4	2
2024-25	Auburn	25-8	2	4
2024-25	Houston	30-4	3	3
2023-24	UConn	31-3	2	1
2023-24	North Carolina	27-7	8	9
2023-24	Houston	30-4	1	2
2023-24	Purdue	29-4	3	3
2022-23	Alabama	29-5	2	3
2022-23	Purdue	29-5	5	5
2022-23	Houston	31-3	1	1
2022-23	Kansas	27-7	9	9
2021-22	Gonzaga	26-3	1	1
2021-22	Baylor	26-6	4	4
2021-22	Arizona	31-3	2	2
2021-22	Kansas	28-6	6	6

The average record for a 1-seed has been 28.7-4.7, with an average NET of 3.4 and KenPom of 3.5. This is where Nebraska is still striving to get to. No top seed in the last four tournaments has been outside of the top-9 for KenPom.

Multiple 1-seeds over the last four years have been the top team in both metrics, with Duke having a 31-3 record last year, Houston at 31-3 in 2023, and Gonzaga sitting at 26-3 in 2022. Each of those teams made at least the Sweet 16, with Duke getting to the Final Four.

Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg and Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor — Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) and Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) react against the Houston Cougars in the semifinals of the men's Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The weakest 1-seed résumés come from a pair of the sport's Blue Bloods. North Carolina went 27-7 in 2024 and was eighth in the NET and ninth in the KenPom. The year before, Kansas was 27-7 and ninth in both. The Tar Heels fell in the Sweet 16 while the Jayhawks failed to make the second weekend.

Big Ten Top Four Seeds

As for how the Selection Committee has treated Big Ten Conference teams over the last four tournaments, only Purdue has earned a 1-seed. In both 2024 and 2023, the Boilermakers had 29 wins and were top-five in both the NET and the KenPom.

Michigan State's 2025 team is the only 2-seed for the league in our exercise. The Spartans went 27-6 last year, rankings 11th in the NET and eighth in the KenPom.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play against Auburn during the second half of the Elite Eight round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On the 3-seed line, four Big Ten teams have been in this spot. Their résumés were better than the average for this seed, at 25.8-7.8. They were all in double-digits for both metrics, with Wisconsin's 2022 group as low as 24th in the NET and 34th in the KenPom.

The opposite is true for the Big Ten with 4-seeds. The average record is worse than that of the rest of the line, at 22.8-9.8. Maryland and Purdue in 2025, as well as Illinois in 2022, were top-20 in both metrics. Indiana's 2023 squad is the outlier, being back at 30th in both the NET and the KenPom.

Reminder: Nebraska is currently 20-0 with 11 games left in the regular season and at least one game to be played in the Big Ten Tournament. The Big Red are fifth in the NET and 12th in the KenPom. From a win-loss standpoint, that has Nebraska as a 1-seed, but the current metrics lean towards a 2-seed.

Why a Top Four Seed Matters

As Cole Stukenholtz pointed out earlier this month, earning a top-four seed means a better (closer) location for your team in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

The top four seeds are gifted the nearest venue or natural location in descending order, from the No. 1 overall seed to the No. 16 overall seed. That means the lowest 4-seed still has *some* preference when it comes to location.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament runs March 17 through April 6. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

From the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Championship Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket document: “Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. A team that is moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible. If two teams from the same natural region are in contention for the same bracket position, the team ranked higher in the seed list shall remain in its natural region.”

First and second round locations are listed below.

Buffalo, NY
Greenville, SC
Oklahoma City, OK
Portland, OR
Philadelphia, PA
San Diego, CA
St. Louis, MO
Tampa, FL

The two closest sites are Oklahoma City and St. Louis. A top-four seed would put Nebraska in contention for a pair of extremely drivable locations. With seven weeks to go until Selection Sunday, and a minimum of 12 games to be played, the Huskers are in prime territory to be taking the Sea of Red on a short drive to a pair of extremely winnable games.

Upcoming Schedule

While there are at least 12 games left to be played before the Huskers have locked in their résumé for the committee, the next four games will play a big part in what the ceiling could be for this team.

Nebraska is on the road on Tuesday to take on Michigan, currently second in both the NET and KenPom. On Sunday, NU hosts Illinois, which is sixth in the NET and fourth in the KenPom.

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Jamarques Lawrence hit a buzzer-beater to top Illinois earlier this season. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

After a road trip to Rutgers (167th & 158th), Nebraska returns home to take on Purdue, currently at ninth in the NET and eighth in the KenPom.

There is plenty of résumé to be built, but this four-game stretch could be what ultimately bolsters Nebraska into a 1-seed or sees the team settle into one of the lines after that.

Thanks to Husker Hoops Central for help with past metrics that were used in this story.

Have a question or comment for Kaleb? Send an email to kalebhenry.huskermax@gmail.com.

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