College Football History's Guide to Breakout Freshmen; What Dylan Raiola Could Do Next

As the Huskers head toward the 2025 season, all eyes are on the young quarterback Dylan Raiola. He put together a strong freshman campaign but still has substantial room for growth. A change at offensive coordinator, along with some new weapons, should help propel his second season. As Spencer Schubert wrote last week, the supporting cast could have a significant impact on whether he has a sophomore surge or slump.

Raiola joined an elite club in 2024. Only eight quarterbacks since 2000 have thrown the ball at least 400 times while maintaining a 65% completion percentage throughout their freshman season. Raiola had arguably the worst season of those eight (last in yards and touchdowns, while tied for the second-most interceptions). Being on the list alongside five NFL draft picks and a Heisman winner is good company.

Looking at the trajectory of these players’ careers could offer insight into how Raiola’s next season may play out.

Players are ordered by the year in which they achieved the 400 attempt, 65% threshold.

Kellen Moore, Boise State, 2008

Kellen Moore was a redshirt freshman in 2008 for the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) powerhouse Boise State Broncos. His debut season was impressive: he threw for 3,486 yards and 25 touchdowns, and the Broncos had a perfect 12-0 regular season.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2008	281-405	69.4	3486	25	10
2009	277-431	64.3	3536	39	3

After ending the 2008 season with a Poinsettia Bowl loss to TCU, Moore led the top offense in college football in 2009. Boise State posted a perfect 13-0 regular season record, avenging their loss to TCU in the Fiesta Bowl from the previous season. Moore would finish his sophomore season seventh in Heisman voting.

The skill positions for the 2009 Broncos were littered with NFL talent. His top two targets, Austin Pettis and Titus Young, would go on to be selected in the third and second rounds of the NFL draft, respectively. Perhaps the best future pro on the roster, however, was Doug “Muscle Hamster” Martin, who led the team with 15 rushing touchdowns.

Outcome: Surge

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, 2012

Johnny Football exploded onto the college football scene as a redshirt freshman in 2012, gaining popularity a month into the season after accounting for 540 yards of offense against Arkansas. He became a household name after he led the Aggies over the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa that season. He was the first freshman to win the Davey O’Brien Trophy and the Heisman Trophy.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2012	295-434	68.0	3706	26	9
2013	300-429	69.9	4114	37	13

After winning a Heisman, it’s almost impossible to “surge” the following season. However, as a passer, Manziel was more accurate, threw for more yards, and more touchdowns in his sophomore season. His rushing production was halved from one season to the next.

Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) scrambles out of the pocket under pressure. — Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) scrambles out of the pocket under pressure from the Alabama Crimson Tide defense in 2012. | John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Manziel's passing production greatly benefited from his top target, Mike Evans. While Raiola is already far behind Manziel’s career accomplishments, the two quarterbacks share a key connection. Dana Holgorsen worked under Kevin Sumlin at Houston for two seasons. These quarterback-friendly play callers are a massive boost to a quarterback’s stats.

Outcome: Same

Brett Hundley, UCLA, 2012

Out west, another redshirt freshman QB was also making waves. Nebraska fans are familiar with Brett Hundley, who set his career high for passing touchdowns in a game in just his second start against the Blackshirts. The Bruins went 9-3, winning the Pac-12 South division before losing in the conference championship and their bowl game.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2012	318-478	66.5	3740	29	11
2013	248-371	66.8	3071	24	9

Hundley led a similar season for the Bruins in his sophomore year, but this time with a bowl win for a 10-3 record. While his accuracy improved year over year, he threw fewer passes, had fewer yards, and fewer touchdowns.

UCLA Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley (17) runs away from Nebraska Cornhuskers defender Randy Gregory (44) in 2013. UCLA won 41-21. | Bruce Thorson-Imagn Images

The Bruins are a better talent comparison to the Huskers than either the Broncos or the Aggies. While several skill position players from the 2013 team went on to the NFL, they were all Day 3 picks.

Outcome: Slump

Brent Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State, 2015

Brent Stockstill attended MTSU in 2013 to play for his father. After a greyshirt and redshirt season, he finally took over as the starting QB as a redshirt freshman in 2015. He was the Conference USA freshman of the year.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2015	327-490	66.7	4005	30	9
2016	262-414	66.3	3233	31	7

Freshmen quarterbacks who've thrown for 1100+ yards on 70% completion percentage in the first five games of their careers:
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 2007
Kellen Moore, Boise State, 2008
Jameis Winston, Florida State, 2013
Dylan Raiola, Nebraska, 2024
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) June 24, 2025

Surprisingly, Middle Tennessee State had some talented players at wide receiver, notably Richie James. He accounted for nearly 3,000 receiving yards in the 2015 and 2016 seasons before getting drafted in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL draft.

Outcome: Surge

CJ Stroud, Ohio State, 2021

As a redshirt freshman, Stroud dominated the Big Ten in 2021, leading the league in nearly every passing category. Stroud’s job was made easier by the most extraordinary collection of wide receiver talent in college football history. Five receivers from this team went on to be first-round draft picks. He finished the season fourth in Heisman voting, and Stroud’s season holds the Big Ten record for passing yards per game.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2021	317-441	71.9	4435	44	6
2022	258-389	66.3	3688	41	6

The talent around Stroud declined after Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave left for the NFL following the 2021 season. Despite that, he still led the Big Ten in almost every passing category. His production did drop off slightly from his freshman to sophomore season, but he finished the year third in Heisman voting as a sophomore in 2022. Stroud would leave Ohio State after this season to declare for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) is pursued by Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Damion Daniels (93). — Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) is pursued by Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Damion Daniels (93) at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb., on November 6, 2021. | Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

CJ Stroud is an elite talent bolstered by the best offensive skill position group in college football history. Losing two wide receivers as first-round picks, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba to injury, was a significant loss, even if Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. replaced them. While his stats declined, he was still the best quarterback in the Big Ten and improved his Heisman polling.

Outcome: Same

Grant Wells, Marshall, 2021

Like Brent Stockstill, Grant Wells was a third-year freshman when he joined the 400+ attempt, 65% club thanks to a COVID “first” freshman season. His passing stats are the most like Dylan Raiola’s freshman numbers. Marshall had an identical 7-6 record to the 2024 Huskers.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2021	295-445	66.3	3532	16	13
2022	196-332	59.0	2171	9	9

Unlike the other quarterbacks on this list, Wells transferred for his follow-up season, landing at Virginia Tech. He was named the starter for Virginia Tech but began his career in Blacksburg with a loss to Old Dominion, marked by a four-interception performance. Wells regressed in every passing category, other than interceptions, between seasons. Virginia Tech finished the season just 3-8.

Despite the upgrade from CUSA to the ACC, Wells’ supporting cast was arguably worse. Running back Rasheen Ali led CUSA in rushing touchdowns in 2021 and was drafted in the fifth round by the Ravens. No offensive players from the 2022 Virginia Tech roster played in the NFL.

Outcome: Slump

Drake Maye, North Carolina, 2022

Drake Maye also broke out as a redshirt freshman in 2022. He led the ACC in almost every statistical category and finished tenth in Heisman voting. The Tar Heels started the season with an impressive 9-1 record before losing four straight games to end the year.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2022	342-517	66.2	4321	38	7
2023	269-425	63.3	3608	24	9

Maye returned to North Carolina as a redshirt sophomore and once again led the ACC in passing yards. He fell to second in passing touchdowns and fifth in completion percentage. The Tar Heels had another hot start, going 6-0 at the midway point of the season. However, they would only win two of the final seven games, finishing with a disappointing 8-5 record. Maye would then declare for the 2024 NFL draft.

Maye had a talented group of players around. Josh Downs led the ACC in receptions in 2021 and 2022 before going on to be a third-round pick in the 2023 draft. The Tar Heels managed to replace some of his production with the good, but less talented, Tez Walker from the transfer portal. Despite the slight drop-off in Maye’s production, the offense was much better in 2023, thanks in part to the emergence of Omarion Hampton, a first-round running back in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Outcome: Same

Dylan Raiola, Nebraska, 2024

Dylan Raiola came to Nebraska as perhaps the most impactful recruit in school history. He’s the highest-rated recruit at the most crucial position in the game. His freshman season got off to a strong start; he was just the fourth freshman to throw for 1,100+ yards and complete 70% of his passes in the first five games of the season.

Freshmen quarterbacks who've thrown for 1100+ yards on 70% completion percentage in the first five games of their careers:
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 2007
Kellen Moore, Boise State, 2008
Jameis Winston, Florida State, 2013
Dylan Raiola, Nebraska, 2024
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) June 24, 2025

Despite a mid-year dip in production, Raiola finished strong after Dana Holgorsen was promoted to offensive coordinator in November. The passing attack also got some help from the running game as Emmett Johnson emerged as the lead back down the stretch.

Year	Comp-Att	Percentage	Yards	TD	Int
2024	275-410	67.1	2819	13	11

Brett Hundley is the closest comparison for what the Huskers could expect from Raiola in 2025; Moore, Manziel, Stroud, Stockstill, and Maye all threw to NFL wide receiver talent. While I don’t think Nyziah Hunter or Dane Key will emerge as first-round talents, if either becomes a Day 2 NFL draft pick, Raiola could experience a significant surge in 2025. It’s also important to note that Raiola is the only true freshman on this list.

It’s also important to note that Raiola is the only true freshman on this list. Every other player on this list had a year on campus before their all-conference caliber freshman season. With an offensive coordinator from the Sumlin (among others) coaching tree, the offense could emerge as one of the Big Ten's best. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Raiola emerge as a possible all-conference quarterback this season.

If you’re spending your last two months of the offseason drinking the Kool-Aid, save a glass for me in 2025.

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