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Dave Feit: Back to Reality
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Well ... it was fun while it lasted.
No matter how the rest of the 2022 season goes, we'll always have the unexpected two-game mini streak, the talk about being in the driver's seat for the West division, and the Blackshirts rising from the dead: getting sacks, interceptions and second-half shutouts.
After a disastrous start to the season, it was a nice little distraction. A glimmer of hope. A reminder of how fun Nebraska football can be when they have things going in the right direction.
But now Nebraska thuds back to reality. All of the greatest hits from the first three games were on full display: a defense that can't get a stop, an offensive line that can't block anybody, missed tackles, missed opportunities, recruiting misses and more. And the perennial cherry on top: a one-score loss.*
*The only thing keeping this game from being an authentic Scott Frost loss was Nebraska's above-average performance on special teams.
I know Mickey Joseph took credit for it, but I don't blame him for the loss. Joseph and his staff are doing everything in their power to win with the hand they've been dealt.
And let's be honest: Mickey is not holding very good cards. Both lines are suspect, the depth at linebacker is paper thin, and they could use more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Maybe they'd have a chance with a pair of Treys, but one isn't enough.
Things I believe
Trey Palmer is a Nebraska success story. Palmer was a five-star WR out of high school. In 28 games at LSU, he put up decent numbers (41 catches for 458 yards and 3 touchdowns). After transferring, Palmer matched those numbers in his first six games at Nebraska (40 catches, 544 yards, 3 touchdowns). And then, Saturday happened.
The amazing, likely-record-setting season being put up by Trey Palmer is evidence of what can happen when Nebraska a) signs talent, b) coaches it up, and c) puts it in a system where it can be successful.
In the Riley and Frost eras, Nebraska did a decent job of signing talent (a certain WR from Kentucky who comes to mind). But unlike Wan'Dale Robinson, Palmer is benefiting from excellent coaching, an accurate quarterback, and a play-caller who understands that when it comes to getting the ball in the hands of his best weapon, quality > quantity.
Think about the number of four-star recruits on Nebraska's roster over the last 5-10 years that have been considered busts or never seemed to improve. While there have been some cases where that is on the player's attitude and effort, the large percentage of busts points to an issue with development. So, it is great to see a success story, especially from a coach who will likely be here in 2023.
Obviously, it is possible to be successful developing mid-level players and putting them into a proven system. Wisconsin and Iowa do that. Heck, Tom Osborne did that in the '80s and early '90s. But it is the high-level talent that separates the system teams from the elite teams - and gives mediocre teams a fighting chance.
The good news is Nebraska tends to get more talent than their West counterparts. The next full-time coach will wise to surround himself with assistants who can unlock that talent, and coordinators who can use it correctly.
It is impossible to beat a passing team if you can't stop the run. I know that sounds counterintuitive but stick with me for a minute.
On the first play of the game, Devin Mockobee ran for 16 yards. On the third play, he gained two yards. On the fourth play (a 3rd & 2) Mockobee gained 9 yards. He had over 100 yards by halftime and finished with 178.
Nebraska's defense never had a chance.
Everybody knows that Purdue is more than willing to throw the ball 50+ times. That's understood. Ideally, Nebraska would try to withstand the aerial assault by keeping Aidan O'Connell off-balance with a mix of pressure and excellent coverage. Jeff Brohm has shown a tendency to abandon the running game if it is not working.
But Purdue's ability to get 4.6 yards per carry changed the game. Brohm could call any play he wanted and get yards. He kept NU off balance all night.
Several times, the Huskers got the Boilermakers into a 3rd and short situation. But Mockobee - or the threat of him - made those third-down plays academic. Purdue kept drives alive and rolled up 608 yards of offense.
This was a really bad time for Nebraska's rushing game to disappear. For the game, the Huskers carried the ball 23 times for 122 yards. Almost half of those yards came on a third-quarter carry by Palmer. Take out that 60-yard run, and NU averaged 2.8 yards per carry.
On a night where Purdue held a decided advantage in time of possession (42:42 to 17:18) and plays (101 to 52), Nebraska needed its rushing game to give the defense a breather and keep some of the heat off Casey Thompson.
Things I don't know
Should Mark Whipple incorporate more quarterback run game? After the OU game, I asked if Casey Thompson would finish the season with positive rushing yards (he was -19 on the year at that point). Currently, Thompson is at -49 rushing yards on the season. That includes his net rushing yardage of -1 yard against the Boilermakers.
But should Thompson (and/or the other quarterbacks) run the ball more? Hear me out:
Thompson is constantly under pressure, often coming from the edges. Frost loved to call a quarterback draw that had similar blocking to a typical Thompson passing play. Thompson has decent to above-average speed. He had a 31-yard scramble down the sideline that looked pretty effortless.
Plus, there is an element of surprise. On a critical 3rd and 2 in the fourth quarter, Whipple called a zone-read play. Everybody - Purdue's defense, the cameraman, you and I at home - assumed Anthony Grant had the ball and was stuffed for no gain. But Thompson kept the ball, bounced to the outside and got six yards.
I can hear your biggest concern: Casey Thompson doesn't need to take any more hits! But answer me this: Do you think he's going to get hit less standing in the pocket on 3rd and long because NU's run game has gotten stale behind a bad offensive line? Or in a situation where he slides to the turf after a 7-yard gain?
Why didn't Nebraska snap the ball when Purdue had 12 men on the field? The situation: Middle of the 3rd quarter, NU has 2nd & goal from the 4. Purdue makes a late substitution and is running a man off the field as Thompson gets ready to take the snap. NU appeared to wait for the player to leave the field, then seemed confused about their formation. Ultimately, Thompson threw an incomplete pass in the direction of Anthony Grant. On third and goal, Thompson overthrew a wide-open Alante Brown. NU settled for a field goal.
But what if NU snapped the ball when Purdue had 12 on the field? Worst-case scenario: the refs blow the play dead and NU takes half the distance to the goal line. At 2nd & goal from the four, Whipple is going to throw it every time. But 2nd & goal from the two gives Whipple the opportunity to run it - or at least give the impression of a run. Any little bit helps inside the red zone.
Best-case scenario: NU gets a free play to score a touchdown that they desperately needed to score, on a night when the defense was struggling to get stops. But because of poor situational awareness, NU settled for a field goal.
Will there be any shake-ups over the idle week? Nebraska does not play this weekend, before beginning a season-defining five-week stretch.
During Nebraska's last idle week - after Oklahoma put up a thousand points and a million yards - defensive coordinator Erik Chinander was fired, and NU tweaked its defense.
Despite the thousand points and million yards surrendered to Purdue, I don't foresee any drastic changes happening on the defensive side of the ball. But what about on offense?
My gut says no.
Mickey Joseph and Mark Whipple both dispelled the rumors that Whipple would step away to focus on his health. While there is another coach whose performance earned him a failing grade in my midseason coaching grades, I don't think there are any quick fixes on the offensive line that come with a new leader.
In theory, it should be a quiet two weeks to prepare for West division leading Illinois (there's a sentence I've never typed before). Time to get players healed up and/or develop some depth to take their place.
5 things I loved
- Trey Palmer. A few years from now, we're going to refer to this as "The Trey Palmer Game." Touchdowns of 37 and 72 yards. A school record 237 receiving yards. A 60-yard rush. 297 all-purpose yards. All Day Trey had it going on.
- Never-say-die attitude. At three different times in this game, Nebraska trailed by 10 or more points. Three times, they came back to tie the game or get it within a touchdown. To be clear: this isn't a "moral victory" thing, or a backhanded slap at Frost. I've written that the legacy of Frost's 2021 team was not the "close" losses, but how they fought to the bitter end. I'm happy to see that attitude still exists, especially when they have had several opportunities to quit. I'll let you decide who gets credit for that.
- Phalen Sanford. Remember a year or two ago when NU announced the results from their winter testing? Some guy named Phalen, a walk-on from an eight-man team, was out-performing scholarship guys in every category. He's now getting on the field. Sanford, a special-teams contributor for two seasons, blocked a second-quarter punt and saw a lot of snaps as a backup safety.
- Tommi Hill. In 2021, Nebraska returned 12 kickoffs for a total of 187 yards. On Saturday, Tommi Hill returned four kicks for a total of 91 yards. He had a 32-yarder that almost popped for even more.
- Timmy Bleekrode. There were some lingering questions about Nebraska's ability to make field goals after Bleekrode's 1-3 start to the season. He had not attempted a kick since the end of the Georgia Southern game. Bleekrode made three field goals (36, 43 and 22 yards).
Honorable mention: Quinton Newsome, Isaac Gifford, Malcolm Hartzog, Myles Farmer, kickoff coverage team, Travis Vokolek, Rahmir Johnson, Casey Thompson
5 areas for improvement
- Offensive Line. Are you familiar with the feedback concept known as a "crap sandwich"? You say something nice, something critical, and something nice. Let's try it! I like how the offensive line makes it easy for me to choose who gets this top spot every week. Did you see the clip where BOTH offensive tackles could not block their guy, and Thompson got smashed? Holy hell. But I really like how the line helps Thompson or Grant up after they miss a block.
- Defensive line / Pass rush. Zero sacks. Zero quarterback hurries. Aside from a roughing penalty late in the fourth quarter, Aidan O'Connell's jersey was free of grass stains. Chancellor Brewington and Trey Palmer were credited with as many tackles (2) as Ty Robinson, Nash Hutmacher and Devin Drew combined.
- Third & fourth down conversions. The defense allowed Purdue to complete 9 of its 18 third down opportunities. The Boilers were 2 for 2 on fourth down. Meanwhile, the Huskers were just 3 of 9 on third down. Nebraska needed an average of 7.9 yards on its third-down tries. They had as many sacks on third down as they did plays that gained more than 5 yards (2 each).
- Clock management. The Huskers found themselves down a score late the fourth quarter, but unable to stop the clock. They burned two of their timeouts earlier in the half. The first was spent during the goal line drive midway through the third quarter. NU called timeout before the third-down pass to Brown. Remember, had NU taken advantage of Purdue having 12 on the field, they could have gotten a free play. The Huskers spent their second timeout on defense before a 3rd & 1 at the end of the third quarter. After the timeout, Purdue completed a long pass that was brought back by penalty. On 3rd & 12, Purdue gained 16 yards. Two wasted timeouts.
- Inconsistent referees. Two weeks after playing a game against Indiana with a combined 23 penalties, the Huskers and Boilermakers were flagged a total of six times. I'm sure fans of both teams could point out at least five obvious penalties that were not called. While I can appreciate a "no blood, no foul, let 'em play" approach, I can't imagine how frustrating it is for the players and coaches to have that much inconsistency week to week.
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