Dave Feit: Familiar Pratfalls End Huskers’ Season
Raise your hand if you saw that coming.
The Iowa game was a "Greatest Hits" compilation of Nebraska football's previous six losses: stagnant offense, turnovers, a special teams breakdown, shaky quarterback play, penalties, and an excellent defensive effort tainted by the one stop they couldn't make when it mattered the most.
A one-score loss on a walk-off field goal.
Final score: 13-10, yet again.
Season over.
Aside from the under, expecting this game to be decided on the final play was the lock of the year. That's who Iowa and Nebraska have been this year.
The only difference is Iowa expects to come out on top in these Sickos games. The Huskers seek serendipity. The Hawkeyes embrace their inner cockroach and find a way to survive.
We'll do a more thorough review of the 2023 season (and peek ahead at 2024) next time, but there are two big-picture things I believe with all my heart:
- I'm disappointed the Huskers failed to take advantage of their many chances to make a bowl game.
- Nebraska's 2023 season was a success.
I know, this game didn't feel like one that a "successful" team would lose. But given everything that happened, 5-7 with the culture firmly in place sets the stage for 2024.
Things I believe
Rhule's decision-making showed a lack of confidence in the offense. Instead of focusing on Nebraska's usage of timeouts (one word: yikes), let's look at why timeouts are used so often on offense.
We’ll start by establishing two hopefully non-controversial takes: 1) Nebraska was not great on offense in 2023. They often struggled to gain the 10 yards necessary for a first down. 2) Nebraska really struggled when they had to get 15+ yards for a first down.
With that in mind, Nebraska's timeout usage makes a little more sense. When the play clock is running down - due to the play taking too long to get in, personnel confusion, etc. - Rhule has two options: He can take a delay of game or burn a timeout. Knowing that an extra five yards was often a drive killer, I can understand why he'd try to save possessions by using timeouts until the larger issues could be fixed.
The same logic applies to the decision to challenge the spot on a Chubba Purdy run in the fourth quarter. Purdy looked short, but then Nebraska was flagged for a false start on the next play. If Rhule's challenge had been successful, the false start would have been negated. But replay showed Purdy was short and the penalty yardage was applied. Even though Nebraska did get a first down, the gamble was worth it to Rhule.
The obvious long-term answer is to have a competent offense that can move the ball and overcome mistakes. But….
Nebraska is still not good enough to overcome all their mistakes. We just touched on NU's failures to come back after false starts or other offensive penalties. Nebraska actually had a pretty decent game converting third downs (8-17, including some longer tries), but overall, the offense struggles when it gets off schedule.
And then, there are the turnovers. Sigh. The Blackshirts have been amazing in these quick-change situations. Against Iowa, Nebraska turned it over three times. The first, a muffed punt inside NU's 20, resulted in zero points after a blocked field goal. On the second, the defense tightened and forced a field goal. So far, so good.
Turnover #3 was followed by a three-play, 17-yard drive to set up the game-winning kick. Look: holding any offense to six points after three turnovers is amazing. But as well as the defense has played this year - and they've been excellent - they cannot clean up every mess.
Ideally, the team gets to a place where they have the talent and experience to overcome mistakes. Until then, I'll settle for making fewer mistakes.
Nebraska needs to learn how better utilize its tight ends. On Friday, Iowa's tight ends combined for five catches for 50 yards - approximately 50% of Iowa's passing game production. Play action, rollouts or anything else, Iowa is really good at getting the ball to its tight ends. I particularly appreciated a third & 2 play in the fourth quarter where their quarterback did a little shovel pass to a tight end for a first down.
Meanwhile, Nebraska's tight end Thomas Fidone - arguably one of the most talented playmakers on an offense that sputtered all year long - had two catches (on two targets) for nine yards. This was a game made for getting the ball to a big, fast weapon and seeing what he could do.
I have largely avoided joining the cacophony of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield critics given (waves arms at everything on the offensive side of the ball). But when the offense started going south, I'll never understand why Satterfield didn't make Fidone (a big, fast mismatch of a TE) a complement to the running game. Let the QBs - most of whom struggled with accuracy - make short, play action throws to a 6'5" guy with good hands.
Instead, Fidone ended the year with 25 catches in 12 games, for 260 yards and four touchdowns. That's a good debut campaign, all things considered. But, given the parade of talented, yet underutilized, tight ends to pass through the program in the last 20 years, I'd love to have to say "they're throwing to the tight ends too much".
Things I don't know
Who stays and who goes? Twenty-five players were honored on Nebraska's "Senior Day." The quotation marks are intentional as only 10 of the players who walked are out of eligibility. The rest - juniors and a handful of sophomores - have all been in the program for at least four years.
Now that the season is over, the question becomes who stays, and who goes? I won't speculate on names, but I suspect there will be at least a dozen departures between the transfer portal, grad transfers, medical retirements, and players choosing to walk away from football. Remember: walking on Senior Day does not necessarily mean a player is leaving, just as a guy who was not honored could decide to move on.
In addition to players, there is always the possibility of coaches leaving. Matt Rhule publicly advocated for Tony White to become a head coach, and there will certainly be opportunities as the carousel spins.
The possibility exists that Nebraska could make some changes within the assistant coaching staff, or the assistants take jobs somewhere else.
Does anybody understand Nebraska's special teams? Special teams feels like a never-ending game of “Good news / Bad news”. Every yin comes with a yang. For every special action, there is an equal and opposite special reaction.
Good: The Huskers blocked two field goals, bringing the season total to three.
Bad: The first FG block came after the punt return team fumbled a punt to Iowa.
Good: True freshman kicker Tristan Alvano hit a big 44-yard field goal.
Bad: True freshman kicker Tristan Alvano missed a big 44-yard field goal.
Good: Punter Brian Buschini had a 41-yard punt that was downed at the 1-yard line.
Bad: Punter Brian Buschini had a 32-yard punt that was shanked out of bounds.
We could go on, but you get the point.
The inconsistency within NU's special teams is both frustrating and amazing.
Should Nebraska have played for overtime on their final offensive possession? Let's reset the scenario: Tie game. On first down, Purdy ran for three yards and Nebraska used its final timeout. The Huskers now have the ball second & 7 at their 48 with 23 seconds left.
Obviously, the goal of the drive was to get into range for the winning field goal. The Huskers were going into the wind, and Alvano had previously missed from 44 yards. Therefore, they'd probably need to gain 30-35 yards to feel good about their chances.
As we know, Purdy threw an interception on the next play that turned into Iowa's game-winning field goal.
But, should Nebraska have played for overtime instead?
Put two bad offenses at the 25 and see which one can muster a field goal. I'd take my chances with the Blackshirts and Alvano in OT. How about you?
I doubt that idea crossed the staff's minds - and if it did, it was quickly dismissed. Rhule has shown that he's going to play to win. And I think the crowd may have booed him off the field if NU tried to run out the clock.
But it's an interesting thought experiment.
Huskerigami update
A “Huskerigami” is a final score combination (win or lose) that has never happened in the 130+ year history of Nebraska football.
Final score: 13-10
Is that a Huskerigami? No. It has happened six times before. The first time was October 29, 1938 defeat against Missouri. The most recent was the Maryland game on Veterans Day 2023.
This is only the second time - in 133 seasons of Nebraska football - that the Huskers have played three games with the same final score. In 1925, the Huskers played in three games that ended 14-0.
But 2023 is the first time the Huskers have lost three games in a season by the same score.
5 things I loved
- Ty Robinson & Nash Hutmacher. Combined for two blocked field goals, two batted passes, four QB hurries, six tackles, and a half sack that nearly broke Iowa's QB. If Nash joins Ty in coming back (I believe he will) the outlook for 2024 is bright.
- Tommi Hill. Tommi was a defensive disrupter. Three pass breakups and a big interception. Few players can make a four-yard return look more exciting.
- Phalen Sanford. Remember back when he was the walk-on from an eight-man team in the southwest corner of the state who dominated the winter conditioning testing? Sanford has taken that raw athleticism and become a special teams standout and a very good safety. He’ll be missed.
- Jaylen Lloyd. Lloyd is a great proof of concept for Rhule's philosophy of finding track guys and making them football players. His 66-yard touchdown reception won't be the last time we see his blazing speed.
- Chubba Purdy. Ends the season as arguably the most complete quarterback on the roster. Purdy is the best passer and holds his own running it (even if his ball security is…um…not good). Remember, he'll be going in for groin surgery soon.
Honorable mention: Jimari Butler, Alex Bullock, Isaac Gifford, Luke Reimer, Riley Van Poppel, Javin Wright, all of the seniors and players who walked.
5 areas for improvement
- Turnover Margin. There are a handful of teams in the Big Ten (notably, Iowa) that you cannot beat when your turnover margin is negative two. We can - and should - knock Purdy for poor ball security on his two fumbles, and expect any punt returner to actually catch the ball. But the defense averaged 1.2 takeaways per game this season. They can help too.
- Running game. Nebraska ran it 30 times for a net of 75 yards (2.5 yards per carry). I don't have the numbers on how many of Purdy's 12 attempts were actual designed runs (i.e., not sacks or scrambles), but it was telling that running backs Emmett Johnson (11 for 27), Anthony Grant (4 for 4) and Josh Fleeks (2 for 2) accounted for a total of 33 yards on 17 carries.
- Play calling. If you want to put the poor performance of the running game on Marcus Satterfield's tab, I won't argue with you. I'm not sure what Nebraska was hoping to accomplish on offense, but it didn't seem to play to the strengths of the players on the field - or appear to expose any weaknesses in Iowa's defense.
- Punt Return. Good news: Nebraska accumulated one-fourth of their season punt return total on Friday. Bad news (part 1): This means Nebraska had 12 punt return yards (on four returns) to push their season total to 48 yards. Bad news (part 2): One of those punts was muffed, with Iowa recovering the ball.
- Ernie Rundall. Rundall, described by The Athletic as "a retired longtime Iowa athletics volunteer," was called upon to repair the Heroes Trophy (presented by Pioneer Seeds!!!) after it broke during Iowa's locker room celebration. Mr. Rundall: next time, hit that gawd-awful doorstop with a sledgehammer, so the two schools can start over with a better trophy.
