Dave Feit's Reality Check About Nebraska Football's Outlook for 2025

A Year 3 jump under Matt Rhule will be anything but automatic. There's little FBS experience behind quarterback Dylan Raiola and running back Emmett Johnson, and the defense appears to be a work in progress.

UCLA was viewed as a very beatable opponent last season until the game was actually played. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

August is the most optimistic month of the football calendar. Everybody is in the best shape of his life, having worked harder than ever before throughout the offseason. Team chemistry has never been better. The playbook install is further ahead than it was a year ago. The new coaches are great, the freshmen are really talented, and the transfers are ready to step in.

And so on.

It's so easy to get swept up in the tidal wave of optimistic enthusiasm.*

*And if you'd like to ride that wave, I have seven legitimate reasons we should be very optimistic about Nebraska's chances in 2025.

The key to keeping expectations in check - and avoiding the annual letdown when Nebraska somehow does not go undefeated - is to separate reality from hyperbole. Remove the fluff and get down to the facts… even if they're uncomfortable.

Before you bet the house on Nebraska going over its predicted win total, read and consider the following:

The schedule is never as easy as we think it is.

A year ago at this time, many fans were convinced Nebraska would be 7-0 heading into the Ohio State game.

"Illinois? At home, under the lights, with the 400th sellout? No way Nebraska loses that game. Indiana? They've got a first-year head coach. Plus, they're Indiana and we're Nebraska. Easy win. USC and UCLA? Those former Pac-12 teams aren't ready for the Big Ten. Iowa? They were shut out three times in 2023."

Ope.

There's a dirty little secret about the 17 other teams in the Big Ten conference that Husker fans need to understand: The vast majority of them* are trying just as hard to win as Nebraska is - if not harder. They get the same TV money as NU, have passionate fans, talented rosters and high expectations.

*Purdue is arguably just treading water until basketball season starts. Or maybe they just hired their next Jeff Brohm. Who knows?

Raise your hand if you predicted Indiana as a "guaranteed win" last July. Three months later, they were a top-10 team headed for the playoffs after steamrolling the Huskers.

A game at Penn State will be part of a rugged November for the Huskers. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Yes, on paper, the schedule looks doable. Cincinnati picked "make more money" over "play a true neutral-site game."

I'll be shocked if they have more than 10% of the crowd in Kansas City. We might correctly assume a team is beatable, but Nebraska still has to show up and put in the work to beat them (see also, UCLA 2024).

Nebraska already has five home losses under Matt Rhule, and is just 2-8 on the road in his tenure. Those two wins were over a 5-7 Illinois team in 2023 and the 2024 Boilermakers, who finished 1-11.

The only thing I know for sure about Nebraska's schedule is that - once again - November is brutal. An improved USC team at home. Fly to the West Coast to face a UCLA team that beat NU last year. Fly to the opposite side of the country a week later to face a Penn State team predicted to make the playoffs. Then, after approximately 5,000 miles of airplane travel, host rival Iowa on a short week. NU was 0-3 against these teams in 2024.

The depth at running back is extremely unproven.

I'm excited to see what Emmett Johnson can do with a full season in Dana Holgorsen's offense. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a Marlon Lucky-esque season leading the team in rushing, receptions, and yards from scrimmage.

Just don't look at the depth chart behind him.

The Huskers list 10 running backs on the roster (including Johnson). In 2024, EJ rushed for 591 yards and one touchdown. The nine others have a combined total of eight carries for 14 yards and one touchdown.

Mekhi Nelson and the other backups to Emmett Johnson at running back have had just eight carries combined. | Nebraska Athletics via Facebook

Kwinten Ives is the leading rusher of the backups (six carries for seven yards) and owns the lone touchdown. He's currently fourth on the depth chart. Mekhi Nelson is second, followed by true freshman (and converted wide receiver) Isaiah Mozee. Kenneth Williams, who had a five-yard carry in the UTEP game, is not listed. No other running back on the roster has a collegiate carry.

I know that some fans found it curious that Nebraska didn't bring in a transfer portal back to either a) challenge Johnson for the starting role, or b) be the clear number two. I'm choosing to believe Rhule standing pat means he and his staff like what they have.

But there will be a lot of "prove it" going on in backfield this fall.

Raiola's health could be the difference between dark horse playoff contender and missing a bowl game.

Last year, Raiola was the first Nebraska quarterback to start every game in a season since Zac Lee in 2017. I believe the last NU QB to start every game for two straight years was Zac Taylor in 2005-2006.

If not…

Picture a worst-case scenario where Raiola misses multiple weeks.* I’ll remind you that when Raiola was playing through a foot or ankle issue in what I’ve dubbed “Season Two” of 2024, the Huskers went 2-3.

*I typed that sentence with one hand, while knocking on wood with the other.

True freshman TJ Lateef is the top backup at quarterback. | Nebraska Athletics

As of today, TJ Lateef - a true freshman - is the backup. Lateef is a four-star recruit from California. Behind Lateef is Jalyn Gramstad, who starred at Northwestern… College, an NAIA school in Orange City, Iowa. Nicknamed "Grandad," he's been playing college football since 2020, earning NAIA Player of the Year honors in 2023.

Here are the combined FBS stats of Nebraska's second- and third-string quarterbacks:

One-of-3 passing for 11 yards. One carry for two yards.

I'm not saying Nebraska should immediately cancel the season if Raiola goes down. Between Holgorsen and quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas, I believe either backup (or Purdue transfer Marcos Davila) will be a serviceable option. They won't need to bring Heinrich Haarberg back over from tight end.

But there will be a drop-off from Raiola.

No pressure, offensive line.

The team as a whole is young - and largely inexperienced.

There are 125 players on the 2025 Huskers. Ninety-one (a whopping 72.8%) are freshmen, redshirt freshmen or sophomores. The combined number of juniors and seniors (34) is less than the number of redshirt freshman or sophomores (35 of each).

Four different position groups (defensive line, quarterback, tight end and wide receiver) have just one senior in the room. Nine of the 19 seniors are defensive backs or offensive linemen. Running backs and punters/placekickers have no seniors.

Heck, even within the upperclassman ranks there are a lot of new faces. Of the 34 juniors and seniors, only half have been at Nebraska their entire career. Nine are new to the team this year, including five seniors who will be here for only one season.

Elijah Jeudy is the lone senior on the Huskers' defensive line. | Amarillo Mullen

That seems to be the new reality of college football in the transfer portal/NIL era. Players seek out better opportunities (or better paychecks), and the number of guys who stay in the program for four or five years continues to dwindle. It is what it is.

Overall, Nebraska's youth movement isn't a bad thing. As I mention in the Reasons for Optimism, talent upgrades are necessary if Nebraska wants to make the jump from 6-6 to the next level.

But young players typically don't know the playbook as well as veterans. They don't have the institutional knowledge and scar tissue that comes from getting beat by a better player. Depending on the position, a lack of physical development can also be a detriment.

Nebraska is a team with high hopes and high expectations. The kids will have to grow up quickly to meet those.

The defense feels like a "wait and see" proposition.

I don’t have a great indication of how the Blackshirts will look like under new defensive coordinator John Butler (with heavy input from Phil Snow, one of Rhule’s most trusted advisers).

Best-case scenario: They keep the things that worked under Tony White, while implementing ways to increase the number of sacks, turnovers and third-down stops. Cam Lenhardt bounces back from a sophomore-slump season. The next Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher emerge early. The secondary - with its four single-digit leaders - is the strength of the Blackshirts.

Willis McGahee IV celebrates after forcing a fumble last season against Colorado. | Amarillo Mullen

I feel like Nebraska has interesting pieces. I've been a Riley Van Poppel guy since his true freshman season. Vincent Shavers and Willis McGahee IV were impressive last season. Ceyair Wright, Marques Buford Jr., Malcom Hartzog and DeShon Singleton have all made big plays in their careers. There are a lot of intriguing transfers, underclassmen and others who will round out the rotations.

But can they be a potent defensive force? And if so, when? It feels like there is some wait and see from the staff on who will play where. The word out of camp is that some of the guys who start the nonconference games may not be first string when Big Ten play starts. "Work in progress" is a phrase that comes to mind.

In theory, the defense should be able to take a few games to find itself. In reality, Nebraska is an abysmal 8-43 in the last 10 years when allowing the opponent to score 28 or more points and 16-57 (.219) when allowing 21 or more. The numbers from the Matt Rhule era are even worse: 0-5 when allowing 28 or more and 1-8 when giving up 21+. That lone win was last year's Wisconsin game when - very notably, and directly related - the offense scored 44.

The Blackshirts need to be ready to roll from Game 1.

The "Year 3 Jump" is a presumption, not a guarantee.

So much has changed since Rhule's third year at Baylor in 2019. The transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, college football having general managers, 18-team super leagues and so much more.

I love that both of Rhule's previous college teams made a four-game improvement in Year 3. That is a far more encouraging track record than "well, we played these teams close last year, so this year we should improve… unless the opener gets rained out."

But that history is just that: history. It is not a manifest destiny guarantee of success. A million different things can cause this team to slip and fall well short of what could be reasonably defined as a "jump."

A lot needs to go right in order for Matt Rhule's Huskers to reach 11 wins in 2025. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The odds say Rhule's third Nebraska team will not be four wins better than his second one. Is it possible that NU wins 11 games in 2025? Yes, but the list of caveats and things that need to go right is long.

I have concerns that the fan expectations of a dramatic Year 3 jump - fueled in large part by Rhule - could come back to bite him. But that's another topic for another day.

If this was too dark and heavy, there is plenty of sunshine and good times over here.

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