If the James Franklin Era at Penn State Comes to an End, How Big of a Candidate Is Matt Rhule?

On this week's I-80 LIVE, Josh Peterson and Jack Mitchell got a question from a subscriber about Matt Rhule and the likelihood of him taking the Penn State job, should it come open. How realistic is that?

They debated how realistic it is for Franklin's time at Penn State to come to an end, what could happen, and disagreed on how likely it is that Penn State would consider Matt Rhule for a return to his alma mater.

Below is a lightly edited transcript of their conversation.

Josh: I don't think that he will be on Penn State's short list. I think he would be on the second list of names.

Jack: Do you have do you have an idea of who you think would be on the first list?

Josh: No. I mean, I'd kick the tires on [Curt] Cignetti if I were them, even though he's old. I would. Maybe famous last words; They are not hiring Matt Rhule. That doesn't solve the problem that they're in right now. “Hey, you want to bring in a culture coach who's going to lose big games?” That's Matt Rhule right now!

Jack: What if he, oddly, symbolically goes to UCLA and hammers them in the Rose Bowl, and the Penn State fans are like, “Oh, interesting!”

Josh: “I want a guy who could beat UCLA.”

Jack: “That's what we've been looking for.”

Josh: I just don't know. I just don't understand why Penn State would fire or move on or have an agreement that he's going to leave with Franklin, and then just hire a different version of him. Which I think Matt Rhule is.

Jack: But a guy who but fan bases want.

Josh: They want new people though.

Jack: What do you mean by new version of him? Why do you call him a new version of him? I'm not even talking about X's and O's style, but Franklin's Q rating is not as high as Matt Rhule’s by any means.

Josh: No, but resume-wise, they're both culture guys. First and foremost, they're culture guys, right? Like that's how they're going to be built. That's how they're going to be known. They're going to start with culture.

They both lose games against ranked teams, or in the case of Penn State, top-10 teams. I think the fan base would revolt. So I don't think they're going. If you like Matt Rhule and you want him to stay at Nebraska, I don't think you should be concerned at all about Penn State hiring him. If you dislike Matt Rhule and you wish you could leave Nebraska, I think you should be concerned because Penn State is not hiring him. I'd be blown away if they even considered him that serious.

Jack: I generally agree with you, but you know, there are certainly situations where you don't get the guys that you'll want to land at the beginning. Or Matt Rhule continues to become more of a national darling, and then all of a sudden Penn State fans warm up.

It’s not a zero. I mean, it's not a complete zero. I also don't know if you would want it, to be honest, right? I don't know that either. The risk is not zero of that. But I think it's coming. I think they'll call Lane Kiffin.

Are the similarities between James Franklin and Matt Rhule the biggest reason to think Penn State wouldn't go after Rhule? | James Lang-Imagn Images

Josh: Yeah, that's the thing. You start asking around with the big names, the big hires, the big coaches who are doing something right now who have a recent track record for success, and you just try to money-whip them.

Here's a coach that I think would be hilarious if they tried. What if they went after Brian Kelly? Because Brian Kelly is pretty miserable right now at LSU and he coached in the north before and he's had success in the north before. Maybe he just needs to come back up north. Maybe that's what Brian Kelly needs to do. But I don't think that hire would be received that well either.

You know, not to do the whole, “who are you going to get?” because people did that with Bo Pelini forever when I was saying to fire him. I don't know if there's this obvious name out there for Penn State. I really don't. I think it's gonna be hard. I think that job is harder now, in the new Big Ten era and the new era of college football, than it was even when Franklin got there. Weirdly. Maybe that's an overreaction, but I just think it's a hard job.

Jack: I said at the beginning of year, that fan base is going to feel major disappointment if they don't make it to the semifinals, maybe the finals.

Nebraska coach Matt Rhule observes the action against Michigan. — Like James Franklin at Penn State, Matt Rhule has issues in "big" games at Nebraska. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Josh: They're not even going to make the playoff.

Jack: I mean, it's as bad as you could have ever dreamed for them right now. And it's still early!

Josh: Jack, they still have to play Indiana. They still have to play Ohio State. They still have to play Iowa.

Jack: I'm not saying they should do this, but I think there's a greater than 50% chance that he's gone.

Josh: I think he's going to leave if I had to guess, because his buyout is $50 million. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think they're going to pony that up because they've also been doing a $700 million renovation for their football stadium. So it's like it'd be pretty tough to foot another $50 million. Not to mention you're paying players.

[A subscriber] says, “Where would [Franklin] go?” I think he could go back to the south. It wouldn't surprise me if that happened. You know, other jobs that are going to open up this cycle, probably Florida still. Arkansas is open right now. Jack, could he be the football version of [John] Calipari going to the Arkansas basketball program?

Jack: Maybe. I mean, it was in the SEC for a while. I was trying to find like Penn State hot boards or articles. So I found an article at Onward State, and it says, “overarching theme from Penn State fans [is that] Franklin should be gone. Some say he should have been gone Sunday. Others think they should wait till the end of the season.

“With that being said, most of the people you talk to in person or online don't have a valid replacement if you were to leave… With the difficulties in mind, we decided to make a list of potential Franklin replacements.” These are in no particular order. Number one, Matt Rhule. And listen to this: “Matt Rhule likely as the best odds of being in the hunt for the Penn State job if Franklin and the Nittany Lions part ways.”

Josh: Wow.

Jack: I mean, they're saying what I'm saying.

Josh: But look at the end. “The knock on Rhule is that he is a career record of 2-22 against top 25 opponents and 0-11 against top 10 opponents. This is exactly the reason Penn State fans don't support Franklin at the moment.”

Jack: So, it is both of our points for us there. They have Manny Diaz next. Okay. Matt Campbell. Wow. We're doing that again.

Josh: Now, that would be a good hire.

Jack: Matt Campbell?

Josh: I think so.

Jack: Kenny Dillingham. Ben Arbuckle, Oklahoma State offensive coordinator. Will Stein, Oregon offensive coordinator. Tim Banks, Tennessee defense coordinator. Tony White!

Josh: Oh, let's go.

Jack: Wouldn’t that be something if Tony White went to Penn State?

Josh: That would be amazing. That would be really good.

Jack, say this happens. Let's say that Franklin moves on or they move on from Franklin. I wonder how this place would deal with this. People have been worried about this happening since Matt Rhule got hired: “Well, what if he gets good and then goes to Penn State?” So this is something I think we're all prepared for. But what if it actually happens? What if this actually happened?

Memorial Stadium holds the longest sellout streak in the nation at more than 400 consecutive games. — How would Nebraska fans react if Matt Rhule were poached by Penn State? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Jack: Can you imagine? Listen, here's the other scenario. I talked about them going in beating UCLA. Screw that. What if he goes in there and beats Penn State?

Josh: Oh, now that would be hilarious. If they're all like, “we need to bring him home!”

Jack: Josh, that changes the entire calculus of the discussion.

Josh: Maybe. Again, I just think his lack of success against good programs is going to hurt him with Penn State.

This excerpt was part of a podcast that went more than an hour and included more discussion on the candidacy for Rhule to Penn State, as well as a look ahead to Saturday's Nebraska/Maryland game, and so much more.

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