Jeremy Pernell: Matt Rhule and Huskers Face a Pivotal Offseason
Nebraska's loss to Iowa on Black Friday ended the Huskers' season and extends their bowl drought to seven years, the longest streak in Power Five football.
It's extremely disappointing considering the Huskers were 5-3 as they entered November, with control of their own destiny and a chance to punch their ticket to Indianapolis.
After an undefeated October, the Huskers collapsed during the last month of a season that had shown so much promise coming down the stretch.
There's no shame losing to the No. 17 Hawkeyes, who finish the regular season 10-2 and will play Michigan for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday. It's the three losses that preceded the heartbreaker against Iowa that sting the most.
Those teams were all reeling heading into their showdowns against Nebraska and had lost a combined 13 straight games prior to beating the Huskers.
Nebraska fell to a terrible Michigan State team that had lost six straight and ended the season 4-8. The Huskers followed that up with a loss to a Maryland team on a four-game losing streak. Wisconsin had lost three in a row before beating the Huskers despite Nebraska taking a 14-0 lead midway through the 2nd quarter.
It's never a good feeling when you're a slumpbuster for average and awful teams.
And it's no secret why Nebraska will once again spend Christmas at home. The offense.
Had this defense been paired with merely a serviceable offense, this team would have finished with at least eight wins. Imagine the national perception of the program at that point. Matt Rhule’s probably winning conference coach of the year. Think of the doors that would open on the recruiting trail.
For those who follow recruiting closely or read some of my updates, you know Rhule and his staff drew interest from numerous elite prospects after taking over the program. Nebraska hosted over half a dozen five-star prospects, a few on multiple occasions. The Huskers also welcomed several dozen four-star players to Lincoln.
The thing that kept most of those blue-chip visitors from jumping on board despite heavy initial interest is needing to see tangible progress.
I'm still bullish that Rhule was a great hire for Nebraska and I think there were major steps taken by his program this season. But there's a difference in perception between a program that went 5-7 and isn't going to a bowl game, compared to one that goes 8-4 or 9-3 and is playing in the Citrus or Music City Bowl.
Had the Huskers been a 8+ win team and enjoyed the national recognition it would have brought, they likely grab a few more of those players. It would have accelerated the rebuild and built even more momentum with the upcoming 2025 class. It's a lost opportunity.
Turning the page on 2023, the top priority for Rhule this offseason - besides keeping defensive coordinator Tony White on staff - is pumping life into an anemic offense that finished the season ranked 121st in scoring (18 ppg) and 116th in total offense (312.8 ypg). The Huskers also led the country with 31 turnovers. It was ugly.
There's no way to sugarcoat it, this is one of the worst offenses in program history. They managed to score more than two touchdowns only once this season against a Power Five opponent. They scored three against a Purdue team that finished 98th in scoring defense, giving up nearly 30 ppg. In four other games the offense only managed to score one touchdown.
Nebraska lost six offensive starters to season-ending injuries. I'm not discounting that, but I'm also not overlooking signs that have been evident all season. If it were a situation where the offense was playing sound fundamental football and were simply being out-athleted, I would give them more leeway and not be as critical of their on-field play. But that hasn't been the case.
Regardless of whether Jeff Sims, Heinrich Haarberg or Chubba Purdy was under center, from game 1 through game 12, the offense looked discombobulated and lacked basic execution. Things like false starts, procedural penalties and muffed exchanges were commonplace.
All three quarterbacks had issues with not being on the same page with receivers on route concepts, and there were several times when the quarterback and running back weren't in sync on option/zone read plays.
Miscues and inexplicable play calls in the red zone were also a regular occurrence. These are all coaching issues.
For the majority of the season, Nebraska couldn’t scheme much open in the passing game and the quarterback run game was the only reliable component of Marcus Satterfield's offense.
It's no secret I questioned Satterfield's hire as offensive coordinator. But I've also tried to stay neutral in my analysis. I've gone back and watched his offenses at Temple and South Carolina to try and formulate a more complete picture of his coaching. Not only were his offenses pedestrian, but they were bland and unimaginative.
The best predictor of future success is past results. That's a big reason I'm so skeptical that Satterfield will ultimately work out. In six seasons as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have ranked 88th, 97th, 60th, 104th, 40th and 121st in scoring, and 74th, 117th, 96th, 110th, 72nd and 116th in total offense. Three different teams. Three different conferences. Same inept results.
There's an assumption the offense will experience a sizable jump in Year 2 because the majority of contributors are set to return. On the surface, I can understand the optimism. Typically there's major growth between the first and second years playing in a system.
But delve deeper. It'd be one thing if Satterfield had a track record for prominent offenses, but he doesn't. This isn't some anomaly you can blame on injuries and be confident things will change after he gets "his" recruits and more talent on the roster. That hasn't been the case with him. Despite having NFL quarterbacks at Temple and South Carolina, Satterfield's offenses never took off at either place. Even after he experienced his most significant Year 2 improvement with the Gamecocks, he was on the hot seat.
No matter. Matt Rhule doesn't plan to make a change at offensive coordinator. He made that clear following the Maryland game.
It doesn't come as a surprise. Rhule’s continued support of Satterfield corresponds with the belief he has in his process of development. From his perspective, what kind of message would it send to his team if he punted on a coach after one season? Just because results don’t arrive immediately, Rhule isn’t going to rush his process. That goes for coaches and players alike.
A lot of extenuating circumstances played a part in the offense being so inadequate. Along with the injuries, it was also the first time this staff went through the rigors of the Big Ten. There's always a learning curve in your inaugural go-round. The coaches are still in the early stages of building their roster. They should be given another recruiting/portal class to get more of their players in place.
So even though I don't have high hopes for Satterfield long-term, I understand why Rhule won't make a change after one season.
The question, however, is will Rhule consider adding an established coach this offseason to give Satterfield some help? Keep in mind special teams analyst Josh Martin filled in for Bob Wager on an interim basis this season after Wager "resigned" following his arrest for DUI in late July. Will Rhule make that move permanent, or decide to tweak some things?
I would suggest a different course of action. I would augment the staff by adding a proven quarterback developer and reassigning Satterfield to the tight ends. I'd include the opportunity to be co-offensive coordinator in order to entice a prominent candidate.
Remember, Rhule tried to hire Los Angeles Rams offensive assistant Jake Peetz last December to be his QB coach. Peetz was LSU's offensive coordinator in 2021 and coached QBs for the Raiders (2016-17) and Panthers (2020) under Matt Rhule after initially joining his staff to coach running backs in 2019. He's been the Pass Game Specialist under Sean McVay since 2022. After seriously considering the offer, Peetz decided to stay with the Rams. Does Rhule take another swing or target someone else? I think it's a smart move.
The issue becomes the financial means Rhule would have to attract someone if that's the direction he decides to go. Athletic director Trev Alberts is already going to sign off on a substantial raise for Tony White to keep him around next season. Bob Wager was set to make $315k, so Rhule would probably need at least another $500k to bring in someone in the capacity I'm suggesting. Would Trev give Rhule the go-ahead?
Whatever the makeup of the staff, this program needs an influx of talent all over the place. There isn't a position on offense that wouldn't benefit from having someone come in and provide immediate help.
To that end, the staff has extended offers to two of the best junior college wide receivers in the country; Demond Demas and Tre Richardson, who is already planning an official visit in December.
Offensive tackle is also going to be a huge position of need and the team could also use a running back, but without question the priority will be addressing the quarterback room. Sims and Purdy are scheduled to graduate next month, so there could be a lot of movement.
Sims was a colossal bust, but I don't fault the staff for that misstep. There's no denying the athletic and physical gifts Sims has, and the fact he'd started over 20 games in the ACC certainly made him appealing. With a former longtime assistant vouching for him, I can see the enticement.
Keep in mind Rhule and almost his entire staff were coming from the NFL and had been away from the college game for three years. Nebraska didn't have the recruiting infrastructure in place yet like it does now. This time around, I think the staff will have more information at its disposal when they target the position.
How does Rhule broach the situation with the players? Purdy looks like the best player in the room, but is two starts this season enough of a sample size to feel comfortable with him being the No. 1 guy heading into spring?
Will Purdy stick around if Nebraska brings in an established upperclassman from another program? In order for the Huskers to get a prominent guy, they'll probably have to essentially give him the starting job heading into spring ball. Does Purdy hit the portal immediately in that scenario or at least stick around through spring to see if he can wrestle the job away? He's the only guy currently on the roster you would like to keep around.
Sims is gone unless he's okay battling for the No. 2 job. I don't see the upside in Haarberg as a passer. His efficiency declined as the season wore on and opposing defensive coordinators had more tape to game plan against him. His mechanics are atrocious and after three seasons, they're ingrained at this point and won't be easy to correct. His footwork is bad, he has an awkward release point and his hip rotation is off. I think it's in everyone's best interest if he moves to H-back full time.
It will be difficult for Nebraska to repeat what it accomplished following the 2021 season when the Huskers brought in an immediate starter (Casey Thompson) and a promising youngster to develop (Purdy). They may need to decide which strategy they want to approach.
There's been smoke this fall that Ohio State freshman Lincoln Kienholz may look to move on with current Buckeye starter Kyle McCord entrenched as the starter for another year and sophomore Devin Brown also currently ahead of him on the depth chart. With Rivals five-star Air Noland set to arrive from the current recruiting class, it's fair to wonder if Kienholz will eye an opportunity elsewhere. Kienholz is from Pierre, S.D., and grew up a Husker fan. Could the former four-star look to jumpstart his career at Nebraska?
Whether it's Kienholz or someone else, is targeting a promising youngster with a high ceiling to have him grow in this offense the route Rhule wants to take if it means missing out on an established veteran?
With Daniel Kaelin set to arrive in January as the class quarterback, the best course is probably setting your sights on someone who can come in and grab the reins immediately and stabilize the position for at least a year while Kaelin redshirts. If you can pull off grabbing both, by all means.
The offseason came far too quickly for Husker fans, but there is more foundation building that needs to be done. Matt Rhule and his staff are facing a pivotal offseason.
