Stats Matchup: Nebraska vs. Michigan

Nebraska’s path to a monumental victory could be hiding in the stats. Here's the breakdown of the key areas the Huskers can exploit.

Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The Wolverines are coming to town, and before you brace for what’s sure to be a difficult matchup, let’s take a deep dive into the numbers. Through three weeks of non-conference play, both Nebraska and Michigan have put together telling statistical profiles, ones that help map out exactly where the Huskers’ path to victory may lie.

Of course, the backdrop matters, as Nebraska has lost 27 straight games against AP Top 25 opponents, dating back to 2017. They also haven't beaten a ranked Big Ten team since 2015. With that context in mind, it makes Saturday’s showdown more than just another game; it’s an opportunity to snap the streak, change the narrative, and potentially propel the Huskers back into the rankings themselves.

Because of that, here’s a closer look at how both teams stack up statistically on offense and defense, and where Nebraska may be able to tilt the game in its favor.

1. Offensive Comparison

Offensive Stat Comparison: Nebraska vs Michigan | Trevor Tarr

After a non-conference stretch where Nebraska averaged nearly 50 points per game, the Huskers’ offense finally gets its chance to prove itself against one of the nation’s most stout defenses. Two areas to watch closely are third-down efficiency and rushing yards per attempt, stats that are no strangers to Big Ten games.

So far, Nebraska has made a massive leap on third down, converting over 62% of its chances. That’s nearly 20% higher than Michigan’s rate and a sign of tangible improvement from last fall. Yes, the schedule plays a role, but you don’t reach that mark by accident. Sustaining drives at that level could be the Huskers’ best weapon for keeping the Wolverines’ offense on the sideline, limiting their ability to score.

Michigan running back Justice Haynes carries the ball against Central Michigan. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Through the air, Nebraska clearly holds the statistical edge. But Michigan’s modest passing numbers reflect its style of play more than a weakness of the team. The Wolverines still lean heavily on their physical ground game, powered by Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, the Big Ten’s leading rusher through three games. As it currently stands, Haynes is averaging 7.9 yards per carry on more than 16 touches per contest.

Taken together, the numbers suggest Nebraska has the overall offensive edge, averaging over 100 more yards per game than Michigan. Their difference lies in style, as Nebraska thrives through Raiola and its receivers, while Michigan punishes teams on the ground. For the Huskers to come out on top, they’ll need continued third-down efficiency, especially in the second half, and Emmett Johnson’s ability to grind out tough yards even when space isn’t there.

2. Defensive Comparison

Defensive Stat Comparison: Nebraska vs Michigan | Trevor Tarr

On defense, this matchup feels more evenly balanced, with each team holding distinct advantages in different areas of play. Nebraska enters on a three-game streak of holding opponents under 100 passing yards, while Michigan’s front seven has been suffocating against the run. The Wolverines are allowing just 2.73 yards per carry and fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, giving Nebraska’s offensive line its most difficult test yet. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage, if it's nowhere near a stalemate, will likely dictate the outcome of the game.

The Huskers’ strength lies in their pass defense. Ranked among the nation’s best, they’ll now face a tougher test against a more talented Michigan receiving corps. But a key advantage that goes Nebraska's way is freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood making his Big Ten debut on the road, and if Nebraska can limit his playmakers, it could force the Wolverines into a more predictable, run-heavy approach.

Ceyair Wright celebrates with MJ Sherman last season after a turnover forced by the Blackshirts. | Amarillo Mullen

Turnovers are another key variable. Michigan’s defense has already forced seven takeaways, five interceptions, and two fumble recoveries, proving opportunistic even if against lighter competition. Nebraska has created fewer on the back end, but their secondary has faced 26 fewer pass attempts, making the sample size nearly a whole game worth of attempts, far less than the Wolverines. Even so, the Huskers’ defensive backs look like one of the most complete units in the Big Ten, if not the country.

Where Nebraska lags is in the trenches, despite strong showings on paper in the two most recent weeks. Michigan’s front seven is a cut above Nebraska, and the Huskers’ youth along the defensive line has the potential to be exposed against a physical Wolverine rushing attack led by Haynes.

Overall, the edge goes to Michigan on defense thanks to its formidable front, but Nebraska’s secondary is good enough to keep the Wolverines honest. If the Huskers can limit explosive plays and hold their ground enough up front, they’ll give themselves a real chance to win this game in the fourth quarter.

3. How Nebraska Can Win

Memorial Stadium during pregame for Nebraska vs. Akron in 2018. The game was halted for lightning and eventually canceled. | Nebraska Athletics

With the analytics out of the way, the numbers paint a path forward, but turning it into a win depends on execution. For Nebraska, that means doing the little things that have too often slipped away in big games of the past.

On offense, the Huskers need to sustain drives by running effectively on early downs, creating manageable third-down situations, and keeping Michigan’s defense on the field. Defensively, the Blackshirts must limit Justice Haynes and the Wolverines’ rushing attack enough to push freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood into obvious passing downs. If Nebraska can force Michigan to lean on their aerial attack against a veteran Husker secondary, turnovers and momentum swings become far more likely.

Nebraska fans celebrate Malcolm Hartzog Jr.'s game-saving interception in the final minute against Cincinnati. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Just as important as doing that will be how Nebraska starts. An early lead could shift the pressure squarely onto Michigan's shoulders, and with a freshman quarterback on the road, that scenario favors the Huskers. If this game drags into a four-quarter slugfest, Nebraska must prove it can finish, making a win far less likely.

The blueprint is there, and now it's time for Nebraska to take the next step. In year three under Matt Rhule, this team has shown proof that it can close games differently than before. If Nebraska executes, there’s no reason this matchup can’t be the breakthrough moment the program has been waiting for since the arrival of Rhule and his staff in 2023.

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