What Are Nebraska’s Chances of Winning Out?

Nebraska’s odds of winning its two remaining games?

Not so hot, according to ESPN.

Nebraska visits Penn State on Saturday night before finishing with a Black Friday home game against Iowa.

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects, among other things, the possibility of teams winning the remaining games on their schedule.

The FPI gives the Huskers (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) a 12.2 percent chance of winning both games.

Nebraska is ranked 31st this week in ESPN’s Football Power Index. Since late September, Nebraska’s FPI rankings were: 21, 21, 22, 23, 31, 34, 32, 31, 31. The Huskers’ tumble from 23 to 31 was after the 24-6 loss at Minnesota.

Two of Nebraska’s three losses were to ranked teams — to No. 21 Michigan by 30-27, and to No. 23 USC by 21-17 — but it's the Minnesota loss that has left a scar and maybe why the odds are so daunting for two more Nebraska wins.

Nebraska’s defeat in Minneapolis has had a long-lasting effect. The way Nebraska lost that game didn’t help its cause. Minnesota pushed the Huskers around, sacked quarterback Dylan Raiola nine times, controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage and walked away with a convincing victory.

And college football fans and the national media walked away thinking Nebraska wasn’t much, despite its 5-1 record going into the game.

Another factor that drives a team down in the eyes of polls and oddsmakers: Take away Nebraska’s Akron and Houston Christian victories, and the Huskers have four one-score wins and an 11-point win over a poor Michigan State team.

Missing from Nebraska’s season? A big-time victory that makes the national media sit up and take notice. An overpowering, muscular performance that reminds folks to pay attention.

Nebraska’s 7-3 record is an improvement already from last year’s regular-season mark of 6-6. But the Huskers don’t necessarily have a sterling résumé.

Why the Penn State love?

The Nittany Lions, with a 4-6 record, are ranked 20th in ESPN’s FPI. That’s 11 places better than Nebraska.

If you look at Penn State’s schedule, its signature game might have been a loss. Yep, that 27-24 battle with No. 2-ranked Indiana that the Hoosiers won on a miracle catch in the end zone.

The Nittany Lions’ second-best game also is a loss — 30-24 at home in overtime to No. 6 Oregon.

We’re guessing the Nittany Lions’ lofty ranking is based on strength of schedule and the fact they were so highly rated early in the season. Penn State also played at Iowa, losing 25-24. Ohio State pulled away in the second half to beat Penn State, 38-14.

Nebraska is about a touchdown underdog to Penn State, which will have the big night crowd and, if it beats the Huskers, a legitimate chance to become bowl eligible with a season finale at so-so Rutgers (5-5, 2-5). Into this mayhem of about 100,000 fans will step Nebraska true freshman quarterback TJ Lateef, making his second collegiate start.

Penn State will start a backup quarterback after an injury to starter Drew Allar. Redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkenmeyer helped the Nittany Lions easily handle Michigan State on Saturday. Grunkenmeyer has started the last four games.

Iowa’s ranking is curious

The Hawkeyes are ranked 21st — one below Penn State — in the FPI rankings.

Iowa’s four losses are all against ranked teams and by a combined 15 points. So, despite the four losses — two fewer than Penn State — Iowa is ranked below Penn State. And, Hawkeyes defeated Penn State.

Oh, what could have been for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa players celebrate after recovering a fumbled punt return by Nebraska in last season's game, a 13-10 Iowa victory. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Hawkeyes (6-4, 4-3) are given a 52.1 percent chance of winning out against visiting Michigan State (3-7, 0-7) on Saturday, and at Nebraska on Black Friday.

Iowa has owned Nebraska recently, winning 9-of-10, 10-of-12, and six straight at Memorial Stadium. As rivals tend to do, Nebraska has had the Iowa game circled, with indelible red ink, probably since last November.

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