Would Matt Rhule Bolt for Penn State? Jeremy Pernell Sizes Up the Situation

It might boil down to whether Rhule thinks Nebraska has the resources needed to consistently be one of nation's top 15 programs. He knows that's the case at his alma mater in Happy Valley.

Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule watches a play against Cincinnati at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

College football's coaching carousel has arrived at your front doorstep, Husker fans. During Monday's press conference, Matt Rhule spent roughly eight minutes addressing the elephant in the room.

“I came here for two reasons," Rhule began. "I love the community and I wanted to live here. I love it here. And I wanted to rebuild Nebraska football. Troy and I understand the steps we have to take to be Big Ten champions and national champions. This place is elite. I want to be a great father and I want to be a great college football coach. I'm not going to talk a lot about job openings when they come. Maybe it's been a while here, but this is what happens when you win. I've dealt with it. We won at Temple and I dealt with it at Baylor. I'm not going to talk about those things ever. I'm not going to talk about my contract here. I'm going to talk about the team.”

“But I absolutely love it here," he continued. "I want us to continue to take the steps needed for us to turn this thing into a beast. Players all across the country want to come here. We have the best facilities, we have elite fans. I'm just looking at the future. Again, I love that place, I love Pat, I love James Franklin. I'm sad that came to an end, I wish him the absolute best but I'm really happy here and excited to get going on Minnesota.”

Did Rhule put Husker fans' minds at ease? I think most people are experienced enough to take a statement of contentment with a gigantic grain of salt when it comes to coaching situations. Let's turn back the clock to the most infamous denial of the modern era.

On Dec. 21, 2006, while still coaching the Miami Dolphins, Nick Saban famously told reporters, "I guess I have to say it: I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." There had been rumors of the Crimson Tide courting him for weeks leading up to that statement, and Saban flat-out bristled at every suggestion that he'd leave Miami for Tuscaloosa. Well, spoiler alert, exactly two weeks later he was introduced as Alabama's head coach.

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Before I dig any deeper into this, most people — including myself — expect Penn State to full-court press Indiana's Curt Cignetti, but it won't be easy to pry him away from the Hoosiers. By all accounts, Cignetti is extremely happy in Bloomington and wants to continue to build Indiana into a national power.

At the same time, Cignetti is from Pittsburgh and it's widely speculated Penn State is the one job he might consider leaving Indiana to take. Even so, Penn State would probably need to make him the highest-paid coach in the country to lure him away — something they could do.

Which brings me to the topic you all want to talk about. Can the same thing be said about Matt Rhule? Without question he's on the shortlist of candidates to replace Franklin.

By now it's well-documented that Rhule was a walk-on linebacker for Joe Paterno in the mid-1990s. He also went to high school in State College and grew up a diehard Nittany Lion fan. It's also where he met his wife, Julie, who is from Montoursville, about 70 miles northeast of State College.

On Monday, he openly spoke of his love for Penn State. He's never concealed his affinity for JoePa and his alma mater. Does that mean he can't say no to them? Penn State's athletic director, Dr. Patrick Kraft, was Rhule's AD at Temple and the two remain extremely close. Does that mean Rhule can't say no to him?

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft, left, and coach James Franklin celebrate after a 33-24 win over Indiana in 2023. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Most people probably don't know that Matt Rhule was pivotal to Pat Kraft ultimately getting the AD job at Penn State in April 2022, in that he went to bat for him and made introductions during that search. Kraft returned the favor two years later. He helped facilitate the process that led to Troy Dannen being hired at Nebraska in March 2024. He forged a connection between Dannen and Nebraska's interim university president at the time, Chris Kabourek. Does that mean Kraft won't try to steal Rhule away?

I don't think Matt Rhule wants to coach for another 15 years. The question is whether he wants Nebraska to be his last job. What is his honest assessment of Nebraska's ceiling as a program in the modern era? We're about to find out.

The infrastructure is in place in Lincoln. Nebraska has arguably the best facilities in the country and the wheels are in motion for an eventual renovation of Memorial Stadium. Troy Dannen has said yes to virtually every request Matt Rhule has made. He's allowed him to build one of the largest support staffs in the Big Ten.

Rhule wanted a grass practice field. Done. He wants it in Memorial Stadium — it's expected to be in place for the 2026 season.

It all boils down to whether or not Matt Rhule believes Nebraska has the resources and support necessary to be one of the top 15 programs in the country on a consistent basis. He knows that's the case at Penn State.

Nebraska's level of financial commitment to recruiting and retaining players is likely to play a major role in how long Matt Rhule stays in Lincoln. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Rhule has this program humming. They're ranked in October for the first time since 2016 and their recruiting operation has never been better. They're setting the table for a top-10 class in 2027 and if they maintain success on the field in coming years, they could consistently settle into that 13-18 range. Is Rhule confident he'll consistently have the NIL backing commensurate to achieving that? He knows he would at Penn State.

The Peed family is extremely generous to the program, but they'll never be mistaken for megadonors like Phil Knight (Oregon), Robert Rowling (Texas), Gary Condron (Florida) or prominent Ohio State boosters Les Wexner and Brian Schottenstein. Not only that, but unlike many top-level programs, Nebraska isn't blessed with multiple deep-pocketed donors with open checkbooks. Don't think that isn't an area of concern with him.

On Monday, Rhule was asked what further steps needed to be taken to help facilitate his Husker rebuild. He mentioned a desire for Nebraska to keep investing in its program, namely money to recruit and retain players. "In a world of $30-40 million rosters, which isn’t going away, I’d like us to do the same thing," Rhule said. "There's sort of like a ‘Hey, that's not really the Nebraska way,' and I’d like it to be. I’d like to invest. I’d like to be at the front of everything."

Matt Rhule's belief in that coming to fruition will likely play the biggest role in his decision whether or not to leave Nebraska, whether it's this offseason or down the line.

Which begs the question: Does Matt Rhule want the opportunity — and responsibility — of taking over his alma mater? Even before Penn State's historical collapse, Nittany Lion fans for the past several years have teetered between worrying James Franklin would leave for another job and wanting him replaced by someone who could get the program over the proverbial hump. Does Rhule want that sort of capricious reception from his alma mater?

Some might draw a parallel to the criticism leveled on past Husker coaches Frank Solich and Bo Pelini, but I think this is a different animal. James Franklin was universally regarded as one of the best coaches in the country and had his program in a better place than either of those two. It still wasn't good enough. You could argue the expectations and pressure are what led to Franklin's unraveling.

If Matt Rhule replicates at Nebraska what Franklin accomplished at Penn State, he'll have a statue built outside Memorial Stadium.

The Nittany Lions' next head coach will face pressure to do at Penn State what Kirby Smart has done at Georgia. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State is looking for a coach who will do for them what Kirby Smart did for Georgia after he replaced Mark Richt. The former Bulldog head coach compiled a .739 win-percentage (145-51) during his 15 seasons in Athens. He was twice named SEC coach of the year and had eight top-10 finishes. But it was Smart who cracked the code and built the program into the juggernaut it is today.

James Franklin had a .697 win-percentage (104-45) in 11-plus seasons in Happy Valley. He had five top-10 finishes, took Penn State to seven New Year's Day bowls, won a Big Ten title (2016) and reached the CFB semifinals last season. But, like Richt, it was his inability to break through with the Nittany Lions and reach the same level of success as teams like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State that caused so much consternation from fans and scrutiny from local and national media.

That's not to insinuate Matt Rhule couldn't do that for Penn State — or Nebraska for that matter.

But the fact remains that Rhule is currently 2-22 against ranked opponents and 0-11 versus AP top-10 teams. In all fairness to him, the bulk of those losses came while he was rebuilding programs that had hit rock bottom. He wasn't on an equal playing field talent-wise in basically all of those games, including with his best team — 2019 Baylor.

I bring that up only because the optics involved in his hire might not go over well with a Penn State fan base that was growing agitated by Franklin's inability to beat top teams, which was reflected by his 15-28 record against top-25 teams and 4-21 record against AP top-10 teams.

According to USA Today, Matt Rhule is currently the 15th highest-paid coach in the country, making $8.5 million this season. A contract extension was likely going to be negotiated this offseason regardless of the current situation. Now, if he stays in Lincoln, I expect Troy Dannen to put Rhule firmly in the top 10 nationally in compensation with a contract paying him north of $10 million annually starting next season.

Quarterback Julian Sayin is part of an Ohio State team that's believed to have one of the highest roster price tags in college football. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If Rhule decides to stay at Nebraska, when he negotiates his extension, you can absolutely count on him wanting assurances that the NIL component remains viable and that Nebraska be competitive with the top teams in the country. When he commented on $30-40 million rosters, that wasn't some arbitrary number. He knows what the top teams in the country are paying. Exact figures aren't made public, but Nebraska's roster is speculated to be in the $22-25 million range to give you some perspective.

So what are the chances he leaves Nebraska? My initial gut reaction is that Rhule will ultimately decide to stay in Lincoln.

Penn State is a harder job than James Franklin made it look. Because of the expectations from fans and media, I think it's a harder job than Nebraska. Penn State fans expect to be Ohio State, and that's not a realistic expectation for that program.

Husker fans know the glory days of the '90s aren't coming back. I don't think (realistic) fans expect to be winning national championships on a regular basis. I think most would be happy with what Franklin did at Penn State. If Nebraska could get to the point where in most seasons they're in the running for a CFB playoff spot when the calendar flips to November — earning a bid here and there — they'd be content. If the stars aligned and every so often the team was a title contender, all the better.

Those expectations are realistic. When Nebraska's hitting on all cylinders, an argument can be made that it's actually the better job.

Scott Frost watches from the the sideline during Nebraska's 2022 loss to Georgia Southern, his final game as the Huskers' head coach. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Also, don't discount the prodigal son returning — and failing — element. There are numerous examples of coaches returning to their alma maters and not meeting expectations. The fallout and ill will that can sometimes create is real. I don't have to tell Husker fans about that. That possibility could be a factor in Rhule's decision too.

Ultimately, I think Matt Rhule will use this opportunity as leverage — as he should. I don't think his priority will be a raise, although I expect him to receive one. Rather, I anticipate he'll seek assurances regarding an ambitious NIL budget moving forward.

On more than one occasion, Rhule has referenced a popular Bill Walsh quote: "Champions behave like champions before they are champions." If Nebraska aspires to be a top-15 program — and they do — then they need to provide Rhule with the resources that reflect those expectations.

I will caution that if we head into November without an announcement being made about a new contract extension, fans should officially get worried.

Something else to monitor next month is how the team is playing. I don't really expect Nebraska to win out and go 11-1. Heck, they might lose tomorrow to the Gophers. But how will they play is the question. We saw how a lack of leadership from James Franklin imploded Penn State's program. Those kids didn't want to go to war for him anymore.

Nebraska is winning games this season in ways the program hasn't seen in recent years. | Nebraska Athletics

They say a team takes on the identity of its head coach, and that's absolutely true. Another aspect to that culture is players become hyper-aware of the vibe inside the program. It's such a tight-knit environment that players can sense when something is off. If Matt Rhule has one foot out the door, this team will know it and you'll see that play out on the field.

Nebraska has shown incredible resolve this season. The way the Huskers closed out a current top-25 Cincinnati team in the opener. The way they battled Michigan for 60 minutes. The way they never wilted when momentum swung and they appeared all but beaten late in games against Maryland and Michigan State. It's something we haven't seen from this program in a long time.

So how does this team respond if it's trailing USC 17-3 at the end of the first quarter? Or if they're down 21-10 at halftime to UCLA? Win or lose, do they bow up and keep fighting like they have all season? I don't want to put the cart before the horse, but this team could be 7-1 with a playoff spot still in reach. If they look unfocused in that scenario it would be a huge red flag and probably an indication that Troy Dannen needs to have his ducks in a row for the chain reaction that's going to come when premier programs like Penn State and (likely) Florida start filling their vacancies.

Matt Rhule and his wife, Julie, love Nebraska. We're about to find out how much.

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