Rivalry Renewed: Breaking Down No. 1 Nebraska's Trip to Penn State

Key matchups and numbers to know when the Huskers and Nittany Lions meet for the first time since last season's Final Four.

Bergen Reilly and Rebekah Allick well remember last year's Final Four loss to Penn State that dashed Nebraska's national title hopes. | Amarillo Mullen

Friday’s matchup of Nebraska and Penn State - the 42nd all-time in a decorated rivalry - doesn’t carry the same stakes as the previous edition when the Nittany Lions stormed back from an 0-2 deficit to stun the Huskers en route to winning the national championship.

But no meeting between the two schools is ever entirely disentangled from context or consequence. Even one in early October.

If you figure the Big Ten champion will probably have three or fewer losses in the league, escaping State College with a win further bolsters the Huskers’ credentials. In a Tuesday media session, Nebraska captains Bergen Reilly and Rebekah Allick each acknowledged the past can provide motivation, but it’s the present Nittany Lions the Huskers will need to deal with Friday in front of a sold-out crowd at Rec Hall.

“I’m not one to shy away from the elephant in the room. I think as long as we keep it light-hearted, it’ll be a really fun week,” said Allick.

“Not to dwell on (the Final Four) loss, but appreciate the rivalry and use it as fuel.”

No one had a closer witness to how close Nebraska came to victory than Reilly and Allick. With Nebraska's 22-16 lead in the fourth set all but gone, NU still had a match point to advance to the NCAA final. Reilly set Allick for a middle attack, but the two didn't connect cleanly. Allick could only tip the ball, which Penn State saved and turned into a point en route to eventually dashing the Huskers' title hopes with a five-set win.

But in Happy Valley, there are fewer players remaining to dwell on that success. The Nittany Lions are weathering the graduation of last year's leading hitters Jess Mruzik and Camryn Hannah, plus the stunning departure of setter Izzy Starck in early September, and sit at 7-5. A Penn State win would be the tentpole victory in what’s felt like a rocky start to the season, which most recently saw Penn State lose at home to UCLA last weekend despite 34 kills from Florida transfer opposite hitter Kennedy Martin. 

For Nebraska, a win would keep the nation’s No. 1 team unbeaten going into a stretch of the schedule that’s critical to the Huskers’ Big Ten title hopes, with five matches out of six being played away from John Cook Arena.

It would also cleanse the palate of the Husker veterans whose only losses last season came to the Nittany Lions, each denying them a coveted prize.

Here are some parts of the match to keep an eye on.

Nebraska isn’t shying away from the big picture

Allick isn’t the only one who dialed up memories of 2024 on Tuesday. Husker coach Dani Busboom Kelly had her Louisville team humbled twice by the Nittany Lions last season. 

Nebraska Volleyball Head Coach Dani Busboom Kelly said it's a "chip-on-the-shoulder week" in preparation for Penn State. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Once during an early-season drubbing in Rec Hall, her Cardinals failed to reach 20 points in any set. The second gave Penn State its eighth NCAA title in front of a pro-Louisville crowd for what was the biggest match in UL’s program history.

These were the kinds of matches she came to Lincoln to coach in. And for a Husker team that can have a tendency to play with its food against lesser-perceived opponents, Penn State uniforms immediately seem to bring Nebraska an additional layer of focus and motivation.

“Kind of like chip-on-your-shoulder week. We know that we’re going to have to play really well to go in there to beat them,” Busboom Kelly said. “I know it’s sold out and it’s one of the toughest places to play, if not the toughest, in the conference. So it’s going to be a challenge. But I do think this (Nebraska) team, Penn State or not, this team is kind of ready for another challenge and ready for something to really have our sights set on.”

The Nittany Lions dropped one spot to No. 16 after their loss to UCLA, but will be the fifth ranked opponent Nebraska has played this season. The Huskers haven’t lost yet, but still seem to be searching for their peak. 

Teams respect Nebraska for their performances so far. A complete match on Friday could make future opponents fear them.

What does each team get from its supporting cast?

Kennedy Martin is a talented enough player to carry most teams to a victory, but, as evidenced by last week, she still needs some help. Martin, the Big Ten Player of the Week, averaged seven kills per set as the Nittany Lions held off USC and dropped a tight four-setter to UCLA.

Penn State opposite hitter Kennedy Martin leads the Big Ten at more than 5 kills per set this season. | Courtesy Penn State Athletics

She took 132 combined swings in the two matches, an average of 14.67 attacks per set. That’s among the national leaders in use rate. For context, Nebraska’s leading hitter, Harper Murray, averages less than nine swings per set.

If you’re going to be a one-trick pony, Martin is a heck of a workhorse to ask to do it. But, Penn State Coach Katie Schumacher-Cawley would love if one of her other pin hitters could join the party.

Ohio State transfer Emmi Sellman, despite a solid all-around game, has not yet produced offensively the way Nittany Lions’ fans undoubtedly hoped. She’s gotten kills on only 32.5 percent of her swings. An elite outside hitter should be killing the ball at least 40 percent of the time. 

Nebraska fans are all too familiar with Caroline Jurevicius’s ability to go off against NU. The former Husker was moved to outside hitter after Martin joined Penn State this spring, and is hitting just .192. 

But we’ll see on Friday if the sight of Nebraska jerseys makes Jurevicius see red again. In two meetings vs. the Huskers last season, she tortured her former team with 38 kills and hit .338, killing the ball 12 percent more against Nebraska than her season average.

But the Huskers have questions of their own at the pins. Nebraska’s middle blocker attacking is among the best in the nation, but tight matches against great competition usually boil down to who can kill balls on the outside.

Nebraska outside hitter Harper Murray takes a swing against Creighton middle blockers Jaya Johnson and Kiara Reinhardt. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Murray is hitting a career-best .288 this season, but the Huskers need either Taylor Landfair or freshman opposite Virginia Adriano (preferably both) to produce, too, to keep the Nittany Lions’ blockers from camping out on the Husker middles.

Landfair is putting away kills at a 40 percent rate, but she hasn’t taken over a big match yet. Adriano had a string of four straight matches hitting at least .300 before putting up four kills and three errors on Saturday against Maryland. How will the Italian react to the Huskers’ first hostile road environment of the season?

Each team needs a supporting player to produce to get something out of their weakest offensive rotations. Adriano is in the front row in Nebraska’s Rotation 3, where the Huskers’ .208 attacking efficiency is 17 points lower than its next-lowest rotation. 

A strong match from Taylor Landfair would boost Nebraska's chances of winning at Rec Hall on Friday. | Amarillo Mullen

Penn State, which doesn’t reach .300 attacking in any rotation, has struggled most in Rotation 6 (.202) with two former Huskers, Jurevicius and middle blocker Maggie Mendelson, joining setter Addie Lyon in the front row. Though the Nittany Lions counter by setting Martin anywhere, anytime she’s on the court. She’s in the back row in Rotations 4-6.

The blocking matchups will be critical

For as much as I harp on Nebraska’s struggles in serve receive, the Huskers passed serves better than the Nittany Lions in both matches last season – and still lost both.

Penn State is playing opponents this year to a draw in the serving game. The Nittany Lions have a 46.4 percent Good Pass Percentage. Their opponents are at 46.5 percent.

Nebraska’s out-passing their opponents 52 percent to 45, but have also won matches in which its been out-passed significantly.

So, let’s focus more on the final touch and at the net. As we mentioned on this week’s episode of the Volleyball State podcast, Penn State is not playing at its traditionally elite defensive level.

The Nittany Lions are 17th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten in opponent hitting percentage (.230). Nebraska leads the nation in the category, allowing opponents to hit just .119.

One other indicator of Nebraska’s defensive success is that the Huskers lead the Big Ten in Good Block Touch Percentage (GT%), which is the percentage of opponent attacks that Nebraska either stuffs for a point or gets a block touch on that leads to a controlled dig. Essentially, how frequently can you turn an opponent’s attack into your own offense?

Nebraska’s 53.9 percent GT% is tops in the conference by a considerable margin. Wisconsin is second at 52.2 percent.

This statistic isn’t highly stratified. The lowest mark in the league is Ohio State’s 43.3 percent, and 10 conference teams have a GT% between 46 and 49. But Penn State’s GT% of 45.7 percent also ranks 17th in the conference.

Nebraska's blocking is going to need to produce transition opportunities vs. Penn State on Friday. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

So, does this matter? Does GT% correlate to wins? 

The four Big Ten teams with a GT% of at least 49 percent - Nebraska, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Michigan State - have a combined record of 41-7. Only Rutgers has lost more than once.

The four teams with a GT% below 46 percent - Penn State, Washington, Purdue, and Ohio State - are a combined 25-21.

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