Northwestern Football Receives Bleak Outlook From ESPN

ESPN's metrics have little faith in a turnaround from the Wildcats this fall.

Oct 26, 2024; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun reacts during the third quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The 2025 season is pivotal for Northwestern head football coach David Braun. Following a magical 2023 season in which the Wildcats shocked many by posting an 8-5 record and a win in the Las Vegas Bowl, NU struggled in Braun's first season without the interim tag, going just 4-8.

The school has poured significantly more assets into its football program this offseason, signing its largest transfer portal class ever and hiring general manager Christian Sarkisian to keep pace with the Big Ten's top teams. With major investments into NIL and the "modernization" of the program, another down season could say more about Braun and the coaching staff than Northwestern's athletic department.

The Wildcats added several solid talents from the portal this winter, including SMU quarterback Preston Stone, South Dakota State receiver Griffin Wilde, Purdue linebacker Yanni Karlaftis and three experienced offensive linemen. However, ESPN did not give Northwestern the benefit of the doubt in its preseason Big Ten preview.

Writer Bill Connelly placed NU in its lowest tier, titled "Just looking for a path to 6-6." ESPN's mathematical projections gave the Wildcats 3.7 expected wins and 1.7 conference victories, very similar to Northwestern's 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) record from a year ago.

"If Northwestern's success is again dependent on having a top-20 defense, disappointment probably awaits," Connelly said. "But if the O genuinely improves and the D has to be only top 40 or so, the Wildcats could surprise. Either way, facing Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and Illinois will make reaching six wins awfully difficult."

According to ESPN's SP+ metric over the last 10 years, Northwestern has gone a combined 54-33 in seven seasons with a top 25 defense. In the three seasons without one, the Wildcats have gone just 8-28. NU's defensive success has been critical, largely because Northwestern hasn't had a top 80 offense per SP+ since 2018.

That gives the 'Cats just a 6% chance at reaching a bowl game, ahead of only Purdue's 1.1%. Northwestern's odds of winning the Big Ten are even lower (0.2%), and NU's 18th-hardest strength of schedule is a major factor.

Regardless of what the odds say, Northwestern is no stranger to shocking the world. The Wildcats' last two winning seasons in 2023 and 2020 came on the heels of 1-11 and 3-9 records, respectively, and an infusion of transfer talent could return Braun and the 'Cats to bowl contention in 2025.