Ranking Northwestern's 2026 Opponents by Tiers of Difficulty

The Northwestern football schedule has been released, and it is time to look ahead and see what the 2026 season has in store for the Wildcats. Northwestern was a sneaky-good 7-6 team last year despite having a brutal schedule on paper. They lost several close games to ranked teams last season, and finished it off with a win over Central Michigan in the GameAboveSports bowl in Detroit. However, no matter how good they were last season, Northwestern's 2026 schedule is brutal. They have their bye week in week 2 and play all three 2025 Big Ten College Football Playoff reps.

Close to Guaranteed Wins

No win in college football is guaranteed. That being said, most power conference teams schedule a few games a year that are as close to guaranteed as they can get. For Northwestern, they have two this year, as they are set to take on South Dakota State to open up the season, and are scheduled to play Ball State in the debut game for the new Ryan Field. South Dakota State is traditionally one of the best teams in the FCS; however, the FCS is still seen as several tiers below the Big Ten. Ball State finished as one of the worst teams in the MAC. The MAC is an FBS conference, but it is not nearly as well-regarded as the Big Ten.

Will Be Favored, Not a Guaranteed Win

Two games fall into this category: the Wildcats' home match-up against Colorado and their road game against Michigan State. While the Buffaloes had a down year last season, coach Prime has shown an ability to attract major talent in the transfer portal, so they could look completely different next season. The Spartans, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern's old head coach. He was able to turn the Wildcats into a consistent winner until he was fired due to a scandal. He should have Michigan State playing better next season, but Northwestern will still likely win.

True Toss Ups

Northwestern has three games that are too close a contest to call at this point. Those are Penn State, Rutgers, and Minnesota. The Wildcats took down the Nittany Lions on the road last season, causing James Franklin to be fired after the game. Penn State was dealt a major blow in the transfer portal, meaning that Matt Campbell likely won't be able to turn them back into form in year one. This means that they will likely hang around Northwestern's level next season.

Rutgers is a different story. The only thing that held them back from being on the same tier as Northwestern last season was their defense. Even if their defense was marginally better, they likely would have stolen another win to earn a bowl bid. Since the Scarlet Knights completely revamped their defensive coaching staff this offseason, improvements are expected. For that reason, and the fact that they return a lot of offensive production, it becomes easy to see them jumping into Northwestern's tier. Minnesota is a true toss up because they are annual members of the 6-6, 7-5 tier, the same spot the Wildcats are in.

Could Win, Likely Won't Be Favored

Two games fit into this category: Iowa and Illinois. The Hawkeyes are consistently in the upper half of Big Ten teams, and Illinois has built itself up as of late. Northwestern does have the benefit of getting both of these teams at home, making an upset more likely. However, based on last year's outcomes, Northwestern will likely be the underdog in both of these games.

Almost Guaranteed Losses

Just like there are no guaranteed wins in college football, there are no guaranteed losses either. However, that doesn't mean that all games are likely to be competitive. Being forced to play most of your conference's CFP reps is unlikely. Being forced to play all of them is brutal. With that being said, the Wildcats games against Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State likely won't be entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

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