2025 College Football Playoff Experiment Should Lead To CFP Expansion

Irish exclusion from the CFP field will likely lead to big changes to avoid messes like this going forward.

Notre Dame offensive lineman Sullivan Absher (75) and offensive lineman Joe Otting (64) celebrate after a touchdown scored by running back Jeremiyah Love (4) in the first half of a NCAA football game against Syracuse at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This year's CFP drama will lead to expansion of the field

Even before this year's CFP drama, which eventually concluded with Notre Dame and other good teams being left out of the field, I believed that CFP expansion to 16 was going to be a reality. Why? My answer is very simple. More games equal more money for all involved. It's really that basic at the end of the day.

If there was an argument against this expansion, it'd be rooted in the idea that the field would be watered down at 16 teams, and it'd be bad for the competitive nature of the sport. But if we take 2025 as a case study, would this be true? I don't think so.

An expanded CFP field that featured Notre Dame, BYU, Vanderbilt, and Texas seems to me like it'd strengthen the bracket, not water it down, especially with two spots going to group of five teams this year.

Notre Dame entered Sunday with the third-best title odds of any team, and will not get a chance to play for a championship. This alone creates momentum towards expansion.

In the span of about an hour and a half the Irish went from having the third best title odds to having the season be over. It’s just hard to wrap your mind around

— Always Irish ☘️ (@AlwaysIrishINC) December 8, 2025

What would this change to the CFP mean for Notre Dame?

After seeing Notre Dame left out of the CFP field at 10-2, some Irish fans have asked themselves if joining a conference is the answer to further protect the Irish from this kind of exclusion.

If the field expands to 16, this move won't even need to be a consideration. One would think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team would always make the cut in a 16-team field.

While I think this expansion is coming, it does feel like the final cut. Expansion beyond this would bring in many three-loss teams, and that to me seems like a bridge too far. Any team that loses a quarter of its games would have a tough time claiming they got robbed of a bid.

The 16-team field would also be wide enough that it could include the bonus bids to Group of Five teams without bumping the likes of Notre Dame out to accommodate.

For those, and there are many in the Irish ecosystem, who do not trust the CFP committee, an expansion to 16 creates a wider net of access, minimizing the chances of a title with legitimate title hopes getting left at home based on circumstance or committee incompetence, such as the case with Notre Dame.

The CFP and the commensurate committee involved is a great idea with flawed execution. And at the moment, Notre Dame is the biggest victim of the process. It's going to be a long, painful offseason for Notre Dame nation, and there's no way around that fact.