Week 11 CFP Rankings Projection: Notre Dame A Threat for Home Game?

College Football Playoff Projections Following Week 11

Top Four Seeds, First Round Byes

1. Indiana
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Texas A&M

I know Indiana struggled against Penn State and escaped by the skin of its teeth to move to 10-0. I still think Indiana is good enough to possibly split two games with Ohio State, though. For that I'll say it beats the Buckeyes in Indianapolis and gets the No. 1 seed.

As for the SEC, I think its a coin flip between Alabama and Texas A&M, but I will give it to the Crimson Tide by a nose hair.

Middle Four Seeds, Host Home Playoff Games:

5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. Oregon

Georgia and Ole Miss stay in the same spots after dominating. Texas Tech I move up a spot, not because Oregon struggled at Iowa, but because Texas Tech looked that dominant against previously unbeaten BYU.

Bottom Four Seeds, Last Four In

9. Notre Dame
10. Georgia Tech
11. BYU
12. North Texas

Texas and Oklahoma rank right behind Notre Dame in the current model, but play at Georgia and Alabama, respectively, this week. I'm calling for both to lose and for BYU to hold onto a College Football Playoff spot for the moment.

Miami Again Knocking on the Door

Entering Saturday, most thought that Miami was done in terms of making the playoff. The ACC had a day to forget, though, as Virginia and Louisville were both upset. Those loses will move Miami up a few spots this week, and very much back into the CFP discussion again.

My biggest fear with Miami right now is a team that has lost two of its last three games, and one that has to take the trip north to balmy Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving Day weekend.

College Football Playoff Projection:

Seeding:

12. North Texas
11. BYU
10. Georgia Tech
9. Notre Dame
8. Oregon
7. Texas Tech
6. Ole Miss
5. Georgia
4. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State
2. Alabama
1. Indiana

Bracket:

First Round:
8. Oregon over 9. Notre Dame
7. Texas Tech over 10. Georgia Tech
6. Ole Miss over 11. BYU
5. Georgia over 12. North Texas

Quarterfinals:
1. Indiana over 8. Oregon
5. Georgia over 4. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State over 6. Ole Miss
2. Alabama over 7. Texas Tech

Semi-Finals:

1. Indiana over 5. Georgia
3. Ohio State over 2. Alabama

National Championship:

2. Ohio State over 1. Indiana

I'm starting to see there being five teams and then everyone else in college football this year. That's not to say a team outside of those five can't beat one of them under the right circumstances, but it won't be easy.

Those five teams, to me, are: Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame.

Through 11 weeks of action, Ohio State remains my team to beat, but like I've said before, the gap between it and Indiana in the Big Ten isn't great. Alabama, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame are right there. Notre Dame going on the road to a team like Oregon would be difficult, but a trip to Texas Tech could be exactly what kicks the Irish to another deep playoff run.