ESPN Computers Project Notre Dame vs. Purdue Matchup as Irish Face Must-Win

Notre Dame's College Football Playoff odds are on life support following loss to Texas A&M

Notre Dame defensive lineman Jason Onye celebrates after getting a stop in the first half of a NCAA football game against Texas A&M at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame returned to action Saturday night after a week off, and things didn't go as planned as it welcomed Texas A&M. Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish fell 41-40 in a last-second defeat, something Notre Dame fans have become familiar with over the years.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was updated following Saturday's games, and understandably, Notre Dame fell in the rankings. What may surprise you is that the Irish dropped just four spots to No. 14, despite sitting at 0-2.

What else does FPI say about the remainder of Notre Dame's season? See the updated game-by-game chances for Notre Dame as well as its shot at making the College Football Playoff below.

September 20: Notre Dame vs. Purdue

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 93.0%, Purdue 7.0%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.1% from last week

September 27: Notre Dame at Arkansas

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 52.9%, Arkansas 47.1%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.0% from last week

October 4: Notre Dame vs. Boise State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.8%, Boise State 10.2%

Previously: Notre Dame up 0.3% from last week

October 11: Notre Dame vs. NC State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 87.0%, North Carolina State 13.0%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.3% from last week

October 18: Notre Dame vs. USC

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 48.8%, USC 51.2%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.8% from last week. This is the first game ESPN FPI has predicted Notre Dame to lose all season long.

November 1: Notre Dame at Boston College

Sep 16, 2017; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Dexter Williams (2) scores a touchdown in front of Boston College Eagles cornerback Kamrin Moore (5) in the fourth quarter at Alumni Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 83.3%, Boston College 16.7%

Previously: Notre Dame up 3.7% from last week

November 8: Notre Dame vs. Navy

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 90.7%, Navy 9.3%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.9% from last week

November 15: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 78.7%, Pittsburgh 21.3%

Previously: Notre Dame up 4.1% from last week

November 22: Notre Dame vs. Syracuse

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.6%, Syracuse 10.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.4% from last week

November 29: Notre Dame at Stanford

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 84.9%, Stanford 15.1%

Previously: Notre Dame down 4.4% since last week

ESPN FPI's Notre Dame Rest of Season Odds:

ESPN FPI has Notre Dame projected for the rest of Notre Dame's season.

Projected record: 8-4, down from 8.8-3.2

Win Out: 7.8%, up from 6.4%

6 or more wins: 97.7% (down 1.9%)

Make College Football Playoff: 5.9% (down 14.8%)

Make National Championship Game: 0.7% (down 2.5%)

Win National Championship: 0.3% (down 1.0%)

Nick Shepkowski's Lasting Thoughts:

Notre Dame's perceived talent is what is saving it in these ratings currently. It should be better than it has shown, and actually still ranks ahead of Texas A&M by one spot in the rating.

What Notre Dame has shown so far though, hasn't been impressive and these numbers reflect that.

Should Notre Dame be better than each of the remaining teams on its schedule? Certainly, but it sould have been in the two games it has already lost as well.

FPI's latest update seems to reflect what Notre Dame fans already know: the Fighting Irish should be in position to win each of its remaining 10 games, but it's not playing at a level to think it'll meet its potential anytime soon, and a lot of these games we thought were two-foot-putts now appear to be more challenging.