Mapping Out Notre Dame's Worst-Case Scenario for 2026

The odds are silly, and for good reason.

FanDuel has Notre Dame's odds to make the College Football Playoff at -700, which is as lopsided of preseason CFP odds as you'll see in the 12-team era. The over/under is 11.5 regular-season wins, and while it's still plus money to hit the "over" (+172), that's still telling.

It's hard to envision a world in which the Irish don't make the Playoff.

That's before we dig into the new guarantee that the Irish will earn a spot in the field with a top-12 ranking. Well, maybe those odds do reflect that. Either way, we need to ask a different question about the team that'll ride a 10-game winning streak into 2026.

What does worst-case scenario look like for Notre Dame?

To be clear, anyone can map out a world in which the "worst-case scenario" involves a starting quarterback going down, and the season falls apart with an inexperienced backup.

For the sake of today's argument, we're not going to include that here because it doesn't really answer the question at hand.

That is, with this roster and this schedule, what does underperforming look like?

While we shouldn't include a quarterback injury with the worst-case scenario, we should include a quarterback regression. Carr regressing could come in the form of an offensive line that has experience, but shuffled the deck a bit.

Obviously, Will Black's transition to starting left tackle is a big part of that. As much as his status as a former 5-star recruit who impressed the coaching staff enough to earn this opportunity speaks well on him, he's still a redshirt freshman who has 27 career snaps, none of which are at left tackle (16 left guard, 11 at right tackle).

Black will undoubtedly look talented, but there's a world in which his ups and downs lead to Carr seeing a higher pressure rate than the 24% mark he faced in 2025 (only 5 qualified FBS quarterbacks had a lower pressure rate). That's one area of Carr's game that's a borderline question mark heading into 2026.

In 2025, he had a 64% adjusted completion percentage under pressure with a 71.5 NFL QB rating in those spots (No. 46 in FBS). You're not beating Notre Dame if Carr is playing a clean game. Carr was pressured 10 times against Miami (FL) and nine times vs. Texas A&M, both of which saw him throw an interception, and he was pressured 10 times in a multi-interception showing against Pittsburgh.

Carr's path to regression would be relatively familiar in the NIL era of college football, wherein decorated returning starting quarterbacks have struggled to live up to their offseason billings.

Friends don't let friends bet on preseason Heisman Trophy favorites, which is why betting on Carr as the preseason favorite (+750) probably isn't smart money.

But even if Carr, who didn't face a top-50 scoring defense during that 10-game winning streak, doesn't regress, there's another element to this worst-case scenario that's worth addressing.

The new-look backfield could struggle in 2 key areas

I'm not sure if you heard, but Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are no longer in South Bend. While history says there's a challenging, but realistic path to replacing that historic duo, it's a specific area where that absence can be felt.

Simply put, finishing.

In the second half/overtime in 2025, Love was 1 of 3 FBS running backs who averaged 7.0 yards per carry and had seven rushing touchdowns. On third down, Love averaged a staggering 9.5 yards/carry and he converted 11 of his 22 rushing attempts.

Notre Dame's offensive efficiency often avoided third-down situations — Vanderbilt was the only FBS team with fewer third-down attempts than the Irish — but converting at a 48% clip (No. 13 in FBS) and having minimal drop-off vs. the four teams who finished ranked in the AP Poll helped that unofficial "eye test" metric.

That "finishing" area includes potential red-zone regression.

The raw numbers might suggest that Notre Dame should actually progress after having just a 76.4% red-zone scoring percentage (No. 118 in FBS), but that was more because of shaky special teams. The Irish had a 70.9% red-zone touchdown percentage (No. 21 in FBS) because Love (No. 5) and Price (No. 17) were both top-20 in FBS in red-zone rushing yards.

Who else had two guys accomplish that feat in 2025? Nobody. In fact, the last time a team who faced a Power Conference schedule had two guys finish in the top 20 in red-zone rushing yards was 2021 Michigan.

Even if Aneyas Williams and Kedren Young look the part, that feels like an inevitable area where Notre Dame will take a step back. It's just a matter of how much it'll cost the Irish in tight games, which they rarely took part in after the 0-2 start.

The last time Notre Dame won a 1-score game was the semifinal victory vs. Penn State. It can credit its remarkable ability to keep the foot on the gas for that.

So why can't a favorable schedule just yield more blowouts?

It's a fair question. In all likelihood, it will. Worst-case scenario is sleepy starts that turn into too-close-for-comfort finishes, wherein it can't just turn to a highlight-reel run from Love.

Given how much has been made about the favorable schedule, which features just 3 Power Conference teams (BYU, Miami and SMU) with a regular-season over/under of at least 7 wins, the worst-case scenario includes a similar blueprint that kept the Irish out of the 2025 field.

That is, a couple of close games go against the Irish and a team with a preseason double-elimination ultimatum doesn't get the benefit of a top-12 ranking.

That can come in a variety of forms. Perhaps a team with a potent 1-2 punch at receiver can successfully avoid Leonard Moore's half of the field. Maybe a team with a game-wrecking edge-rusher forces a couple of key turnovers against Carr.

For all we know, the Chris Ash/Freeman defense gets off to another slow start, but the schedule doesn't expose it until the latter half of the season. It's hard to push the "we're not good enough" message during a 6-0 start.

Fighting complacency during what would be a 16-game winning streak could be a real issue for Freeman and Co. to overcome.

That's why the worst-case scenario is ... 10-2

That is, losing 2 of those 3 games in that aforementioned trio of at BYU, Miami and SMU. Alternatively, if one of those random, Northern Illinois-like losses happens outside of that group, it's fair to project one more loss in a worst-case scenario.

But it's hard to envision 9-3 with that schedule.

Yeah, maybe Carr having just 44 career pass attempts in the 4th quarter could come back to bite the Irish, and that new-look backfield could regress if Notre Dame's offensive line lacks continuity.

Still, though. Carr checked such a high number of boxes in Year 1 as a starter, and unless he just reaped the benefits of that 2-headed rushing attack, he'll keep the Irish afloat in what'll be his third year with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock.

Freeman's defense finishing outside the top 10 for the first time since Year 1 is hard to project when the Irish rank No. 2 in FBS in returning defensive production.

And above all else, this is a team that should have the all-important revenge angle after the way that it played out. We can debate the merits of that final Playoff ranking, but all that matters is offseason motivation for a program that knows what it means to reach the biggest stage in the sport.

The floor is high in South Bend. To argue against that would be silly.

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