Notre Dame Football and the AP Poll: Preseason Ranking Trends Since 1997

Year three has traditionally been a huge year for Notre Dame coaches, but how can Marcus Freeman improve things in his fourth?

Apr 12, 2025; Notre Dame, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman waits to run onto the field during the Blue-Gold game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Notre Dame football under Lou Holtz was a powerhouse annually, something it didn't take long to fall from following his departure. When Holtz left following the 1996 season, Bob Davie was promoted from defensive coordinator, and the Irish fell from college football's elite almost immediately.

Pre-season college football rankings are generally overrated, as many of them are based on what happened the previous year, with teams that tend to disassemble more each year.

But where has Notre Dame started the year ranked in the AP Poll, and where has it ended since the Lou Holtz era ended in South Bend? Holtz is the last coach to have Notre Dame performing at a level that each year it could be considered for a national championship. After winning it all in his third year, the Irish came back in 1989 with what was perhaps an even better team, despite a loss at Miami to end the regular season.

Here is a look at how Notre Dame has fared versus its preseason ranking during each head coaching era since Holtz's.

1997-2001: Bob Davie Era

The last time Notre Dame hired from within was after the 1996 season when they promoted DC Bob Davie after Lou Holtz retired; while his tenure wasn’t particularly memorable, he did have a staff of position coaches like Urban Meyer, Steve Addazio, Charlie Strong, Dan Mullen, etc. pic.twitter.com/A38kDOR8hz

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) December 3, 2021

1997
Preseason: 11th
Final Ranking: Unranked (7-6)

1998
Preseason: 22nd
Final Ranking: 22nd (9-3)

1999
Preseason: 18th
Final Ranking: Unranked (5-7)

2000
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: 15th (9-3)

2001
Preseason: 18th
Final Ranking: Unranked (5-7)

Davie was tasked with the difficult job of replacing Holtz and nearly led the Irish to a BCS game by the end of year two. The recruiting stayed at a high level, and the list of Davie assistants was mighty impressive, but as you can see, he and his teams struggled mightily to reach preseason expectations, despite the fact those were lowered pretty quickly.

2002-2004: Tyrone Willingham Era

Nov 6, 2004; Knoxville, TN, USA; FILE PHOTO: Norte Dame Fighting Irish head coach Tyrone Willingham on the sidelines against Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. Fighting Irish beat the Vols 17-13. Willingham will not be retained as Notre Dame's Head Coach next season. | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

2002
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: 17th (10-3)

2003
Preseason: 20th
Final Ranking: Unranked (5-7)

2004
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: Unranked (6-6)

Willingham got off to a memorable 8-0 start in 2002, but after losing to Boston College in early November, things were never the same, even after upsets of two top-10 teams in 2004.

2005-2009: Charlie Weis Era

Oct. 24, 2009; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Charlie Weis talks on his headset in the first quarter against the Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

2005
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: 9th (9-3)

2006
Preseason: 2nd
Final Ranking: 17 (10-3)

2007
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: Unranked (3-9)

2008
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: Unranked (7-6)

2009
Preseason: 23rd
Final Ranking: Unranked (6-6)

Weis oversaw Notre Dame's most impressive passing offense in his five seasons, but the problem was that the offensive line struggled mightily, and the running game lacked home run hitters. Oh, and the defense usually couldn't be relied upon to do much. But hey, Notre Dame almost beat USC in 2005...

2010-2021: Brian Kelly Era

Nov 27, 2021; Stanford, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly walks on the field during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

2010
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: Unranked (8-5)

2011
Preseason: 16th
Final Ranking: Unranked (8-5)

2012
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: 4th (12-1)

2013
Preseason: 14th
Final Ranking: 20th (9-4)

2014
Preseason: 17th
Final Ranking: Unranked (8-5)

2015
Preseason: 11th
Final Ranking: 11th (10-3)

2016
Preseason: 10th
Final Ranking: Unranked (4-8)

2017
Preseason: Unranked
Final Ranking: 11th (10-3)

2018
Preseason: 12th
Final Ranking: 5th (21-1)

2019
Preseason: 9th
Final Ranking: 12th (11-2)

2020
Preseason: 10th
Final Ranking: 5th (10-2)

2021
Preseason: 9th
Final Ranking: 8th (11-2)

Five of Kelly's 12 seasons saw Notre Dame finish with a higher final ranking than its preseason ranking, which speaks to what he did following the 2016 debacle, as four of those five seasons ended with an improvement versus the preseason ranking.

2022-Current: Marcus Freeman Era

Jan 20, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman reacts against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half in the CFP National Championship college football game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

2022
Preseason: 5th
Final Ranking: 18th (9-4)

2023
Preseason: 13th
Final Ranking: 14th (10-3)

2024
Preseason: 7th
Final Ranking: 2nd (14-2)

2025
TBD

Freeman and Notre Dame recovered from the brutal 0-2 start in 2022 to be a top 20 team by season's end, even with Drew Pyne starting almost all season. 2023 saw the Irish play almost exactly to their preseason prediction, while they returned to glory in a big way in Freeman's third year.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway:

On the list, you can see that only Kelly and Freeman had Notre Dame playing at a high level after the third season. Davie, Willingham, and Weis's fates were quickly sealed after, while Kelly had a fall back before closing on his best run at Notre Dame, from 2017-21.

How does Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame continue to push the program forward? As great as a national championship would be this year, it's a big ask. That said, can Freeman show not only that Notre Dame has arrived under his watch, but that it's not going away while he's there?

That's something no coach since Lou Holtz has been able to accomplish with the Fighting Irish.