What Would Count as Success for Notre Dame Football in 2025?

Fall camp has officially opened as we're one month away from Notre Dame at Miami

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman greets players during a Notre Dame football practice at Irish Athletic Center on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

Notre Dame's fall camp kicked off Thursday morning, exactly one month before the Fighting Irish travel to take on Miami in a blockbuster of a season-opener.

Fresh off a National Championship Game appearance, Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish are knocking on the door of ending Notre Dame's championship drought. But is it really "national championship or bust" in South Bend?

I saw Greg Flammang pose the question on X earlier in the week, and it certainly got my mind running.

A successful Notre Dame season is

— Greg Flammang (@greg2126) July 28, 2025

Dependency on College Football Playoff Draw

Listen, anything short of making the College Football Playoff will certainly be deemed a disappointment for 2025, so let's get that out in the open. This is a team that replaces a quarterback and some star defensive veterans from a year ago, but is seeing its overall talent level pointing up.

It's also Notre Dame, where expectations are supposed to be sky-high, not simply set to get by. That said, how things fall come the College Football Playoff, assuming the Irish make it, matters a ton on determining success.

Oregon Ducks linebacker Devon Jackson (26) makes a confetti angel on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024, after the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Oregon Ducks defeated the Penn State Nittany Lions, 45-37. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon last year is a perfect example. The Ducks went 12-0 in the regular season, beat two playoff teams in the regular season, then beat Penn State in the Big Ten Championship to move to 13-0. It was blown out by Ohio State in a Rose Bowl rematch and didn't make it to the semi-finals. Was that a disappointing year for Oregon?

It accomplished far too much for it to be a failure. Oregon lost on a neutral field to the nation's best team, which happened to come early in the postseason, and the Ducks were probably among the nation's top-three teams a year ago.

The same could easily happen to a 2025 Notre Dame team that gets a quarterfinal draw against Texas, Ohio State, or another powerhouse. Losing early in the CFP might hurt, but in no way means the season was a disappointment.

Ultimately, Where is Notre Dame's Arrow Pointing at the End of 2025?

Following last year's dominating second half of the regular season and then run to the championship game, Notre Dame's arrow under Marcus Freeman is unquestionably pointing straight up. For the first time in what feels like ages, Notre Dame feels like it can be a regular national championship contender and the early recruiting gains following the run echo that.

Apr 12, 2025; Notre Dame, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) throws a pass during the Blue-Gold game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Does Notre Dame end the 2025 season with the arrow still pointing up? That can be via winning a national championship, no doubt, but it can also come in other ways.

Do CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey show that they're the future of the program and help lead Notre Dame to the CFP?

Can Notre Dame take care of business against on-the-rise programs like Miami, Texas A&M, and USC, and establish itself as a bully on the block? Or do those programs, who Notre Dame has had a clear leg up on recently, make gains towards the Irish?

(EDITORS NOTE: caption correction) Jan 9, 2025; Miami, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates after defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

By the time mid-January gets here, will we still be talking about Notre Dame as a team that seriously looks the part of knocking down the championship door? Or will it have taken a step back compared to how it was viewed at the start of fall camp 2025?

That's how I'll determine success for Marcus Freeman and the Irish in 2025.