In-Depth Look at How ESPN FPI Sees Notre Dame for 2026 Season

Notre Dame is clearly seen as one of the national championship favorites by FPI

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman during the Blue-Gold spring game at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, April 25, 2026, in South Bend. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It doesn't take a college football expert to figure out that Notre Dame will enter 2026 as a favorite to win the national championship.

Head coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish return a load of talent on both sides of the ball on a team that won its last 10 games of the season last year, and was one that most thought was robbed of a College Football Playoff appearance.

To the surprise of nobody, when ESPN released its first Football Power Index (FPI) rankings of the year this week, Notre Dame was near the top.

Here's a more detailed look at what those numbers say about Notre Dame in 2026.

Notre Dame ESPN FPI - A Detailed Look

Notre Dame checks in third overall in the initial FPI rankings, trailing only No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Texas.

Oregon, Indiana, and Miami then follow Notre Dame in the next three spots, with Miami being the highest rated of any Fighting Irish opponent in 2026.

The FPI projects Notre Dame to finish with an overall record of 10.7-1.3 this fall, the second most wins of any team. Only Texas Tech (10.8) had a higher win total projection.

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; A Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) looks to pass against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

FPI gives Notre Dame a 32.7% chance to go unbeaten in the regular season, the best of any team nationally, and a 74.4% chance to make the CFP, the second-highest to only Ohio State.

Notre Dame's 19.7% chance to make the national title game are the third highest behind Ohio State and Texas, while its 10.5% chance to win it all is the third-highest, trailing the same two teams.

Where Notre Dame's Opponents Rank in FPI

Of Notre Dame's 12 opponents in 2026, just three crack the top 25 in the initial FPI rankings, while seven check in 65th or below.

Aug 31, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back CharMar Brown (6) scores a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Miami (FL) - 6th
BYU - 20th
SMU - 24th
North Carolina - 42
Wisconsin - 43
Michigan State - 65
Navy - 69
Syracuse - 70
Purdue - 71
Boston College - 78
Stanford - 80
Rice - 122

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway

The numbers here show what we all expect Notre Dame to be in 2026 - a true national championship contender.

This isn't a team that is supposed to sneak into the CFP and possibly make some noise, it's a team that should be safely in, likely have a First Round bye, and should be expected to play in the national semi-finals if not the title game itself.

With CJ Carr leading the offense for a second-straight year, and the head coach and both coordinators also returning, there is plenty of reason to be extremely optimistic.

The numbers simply back up what Notre Dame fans who have been paying attention already know: this is a national title contender that should be the best team on the field every Saturday (and one Sunday) this fall.