Expectations for Notre Dame Football in Week 3 vs Michigan State

We've looked at the first two games on Notre Dame's schedule (Wisconsin and Rice) and today, are moving on to Week 3 when Michigan State rolls into South Bend.

It'll mark the first time in a decade that Notre Dame has played host to the Spartans, a former annual rival, who won its last trip to South Bend, 36-28 in 2016.

Notre Dame will be a heavy favorite again in this one, but Michigan State should have its first real test before the Big Ten slate begins. How much of an upset threat will the Spartans be?

Perhaps more of one than you might expect, considering the history of their new head coach.

Pat Fitzgerald's History of Upsetting Notre Dame

The story goes that former Chicago suburban high school linebacker Pat Fitzgerald was recruited by Notre Dame, but treated like a secondary-type prospect on his visit to South Bend. That left a bad taste in Fitzgerald's mouth, and when given a chance to get revenge he did so - twice, in fact.

The Carl Sandburg High School standout would instead play college football at Northwestern, and in 1995, was a star defender on the Wildcats team that won the Big Ten and went to the Rose Bowl. It started that year by handing Notre Dame a stunning upset in South Bend.

Northwestern vs #9 Notre Dame (1995) pic.twitter.com/qjuLD37EbM
— College Football Classics (@ClassicsCFB) February 26, 2021

Fast forward almost 20 years later and Fitzgerald was in the middle of his run as Northwestern's head coach. Late in 2014, Notre Dame was 7-2 and a significant home favorite against the Wildcats when Fitzgerald coached them to a 43-40 overtime victory over the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame again figures to be a significant favorite in this one, likely around three touchdowns or so, but that hasn't mattered much historically when new Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald has traveled to South Bend.

Rivalry Renewed - But in Different Places

Michigan State went to bowl games in 12 of 13 seasons from 2007 through 2019, with the Spartans playing the Fighting Irish playing nine times in that stretch, with Notre Dame winning five to Michigan State's four.

The Megaphone Trophy rivalry is returning. 🙌

2026 ➡️ at Notre Dame
2027 ➡️ Michigan State

Feels like a good time to revisit 𝘓𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘎𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴.#B1GFootball x @MSU_Football pic.twitter.com/LjhYCtxbYU
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) June 27, 2024

Michigan State will enter a different program, however, as it start the season with its third head coach in the last four seasons.

Michigan State hasn't had a winning season or gone to a bowl game since 2021, when it went 11-2 and won the Peach Bowl, while Notre Dame is 43-11 in that time.

Fitzgerald gives reason to think Michigan State will get back on track and make more noise in the Big Ten than it has in the last half decade, but expectations aren't for an Indiana-like turnaround to happen in his first year in East Lansing.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Prediction:

This is the kind of game I look at as a program-building type of contest for Michigan State.

I don't think the Spartans come to South Bend and win, but I have this feeling that won't go away that they'll slop this thing up and keep it competitive for longer than most think it should be.

Michigan State's line play on both sides has been next to non-existent in recent years. If Fitzgerald can get development there like he has spoken of, then Michigan State will be a lot more of a challenge than 3.2% chance of victory it has been given by ESPN's FPI.

Maybe it scar tissue from growing up and watching Michigan State be a pain in Notre Dame's side from the late 1990's through 2017, but I don't see this being a runaway, at least for the vast majority of the night.

Give me a one-score game going into the fourth quarter before Notre Dame pulls away late.

Nick Shepkowski's Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Michigan State 14

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