Is Notre Dame Suddenly in Danger of Missing the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame has seemed like a safe pick to make the College Football Playoff for the last month or so, but as the season nears its end, that doesn't appear quite as safe anymore.

Notre Dame still has Stanford to play late Saturday night, but the way things stand it will perhaps be more interesting to see if Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish can make the postseason tournament after all.

I don't see Notre Dame being a "virtual lock" at this point, but I don't see it being out for certain, either. Here's what has happened so far this weekend that hasn't gone Notre Dame's way...

Texas Upsets Texas A&M on Friday Night

Texas beating in-state rival Texas A&M hurt Notre Dame in two ways Friday evening.

First, it knocked Texas A&M from the unbeatens, as Notre Dame's close loss to the Aggies was previously the closest anyone had played them this year. That dings Notre Dame's strength of schedule a hair, but it also faintly keeps Texas alive as a College Football Playoff team at 9-3.

The argument for Texas potentially being in is that it has wins over the likes of Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M, all of which were rated in the top 10 at the time of those games.

I don't see Texas moving up past Notre Dame as it also has a brutal loss to lowly Florida, and was outscored by Georgia 21-0 in the fourth quarter to lose 35-10. Many will point to the Ohio State non-conference game holding Texas back, but to me it was the game against the lowly Gators that it trailed 29-14 entering the fourth quarter of that will hold it back.

Does Notre Dame Have a Miami Problem?

Miami of course beat Notre Dame in Week 1, and both teams appear headed to finish the regular season with 10-2 marks. Many thought Miami would have a bigger challenge against Pittsburgh than it did Saturday, winning 38-7.

Miami ranked 12th in the latest CFP rankings while Notre Dame checked in ninth.

Some simpletons will look at the final score and say that Miami beat Pittsburgh by more than Notre Dame did, but fail to mention that it kept it starters in during the blowout to score a touchdown in the closing seconds while Notre Dame's reserves gave up a touchdown to Pitt on the final play of the game.

Miami is going to beat Pitt by more than Notre Dame beat the Panthers. For those who have been keeping score of the common opponents stuff rather than the result of the game the two teams played, that may be important given it's the final regular-season game.
— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) November 29, 2025

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway:

Notre Dame obliterated Pittsburgh two weeks ago and remained ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings afterward.

Am I really supposed to believe that Notre Dame doesn't move up following routing Pittsburgh, but Miami is suddenly going to move from No. 12 to No. 9 for doing the same thing Notre Dame already did?

If Miami was behind Notre Dame last week, it did nothing to make it be ranked ahead of Notre Dame this week - at least if the College Football Playoff committee uses any logic whatsoever.