ESPN’s Computer Model Predicts Winner of Notre Dame vs. Miami Showdown

Bill Connelly's computer model sees a thriller on South Beach to start the year for Notre Dame and Miami

Apr 12, 2025; Notre Dame, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman waits to run onto the field during the Blue-Gold game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Miami are set to square off in a massive season opener on August 31, starting a season where both teams are expecting to not just compete for, but make the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame returns a load of talent from the team that lost last year's National Championship Game, while Miami figures to have one of the nation's top offenses again, and went on a spending spree in the transfer portal to land former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and plenty of defensive help as well.

So what happens in Miami Gardens on the last evening of August 2025?

Bill Connelly's ESPN SP+ Projects Notre Dame at Miami Outcome:

Nov 11, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush (7) Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Jonathan Garvin (97) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Mike McGlinchey (68) fight for possession of a fumble in the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Garvin recovered the fumble. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Bill Connelly has long been running the SP+ college football ranking model that throws everything into a formula and spits out projections of everything from win totals to conference champions and game predictions.

Connelly mentioned the Notre Dame at Miami opener in latest SP+ update, as Notre Dame starts the year sixth in his ratings and Miami 14. Despite the decent gap in rankings, Connelly projects a thriller on South Beach to start the year.

Bill Connelly's SP+ Projection for Notre Dame at Miami: Notre Dame by 1.4 points.

For what its worth, Notre Dame is currently a 2.5 point favorite in the contest.

The hard part of predicting at this point, even with a computer model, is that Notre Dame hasn't even named its starting quarterback yet. Now, there are ways to go around that (make 50% of models have CJ Carr start and the other half have Kenny Minchey, for whatever difference that creates), but its tough to buy into any prediction right now.

Notre Dame's race for the starting quarterback is very much up in the air as Sunday's important scrimmage nears. While it seems of late that Kenny Minchey has gained steam and may have a slight lead, it's impossible to know how he or CJ Carr will perform.

What if the starter is awful and is benched by halftime? What if whoever starts is flat-out awesome and outplays what should be a decided Miami advantage at quarterback in Beck?

Good for Connelly for putting this out and putting his name on it, because in today's college football, the gap between top teams is closer than it's been in years. That makes him very susceptible to having preseason rankings that won't be looked back upon fondly.

Hopefully, Notre Dame can start things on the right foot by blowing his model out of the water and winning by a lot more than one point at Miami.