Would a Lower Playoff Seed Actually Help Notre Dame?

The latest College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night and the good news for Notre Dame is that it moved up one spot to No. 9 this week. That came after BYU was blitzed at Texas Tech, as Notre Dame had checked in at No. 10 in the original rankings.

Going up in the rankings always seems like a good thing, but if you're Notre Dame, would it be better to be the ninth seed when its all said and done, or fall back a spot potentially to No. 10?

That answer may seem obvious, but perhaps it isn't as obvious as one would think.

Notre Dame's Currently Projected First Round Matchup

As the No. 9 seed, Notre Dame would go on the road to take on No. 8 in the first round. Obviously the hope for Notre Dame would be to climb into the top eight and host, but if that's not possible, would it be better off it someone were to pass it?

The number eight team currently is Oregon. The Ducks are a powerhouse under Dan Lanning, but by no means is it unbeatable. Oregon would probably be a slight favorite over the Irish in Autzen Stadium, but it's not like the Ducks haven't already lost there this season.

Indiana takes on Oregon in 202 — Indiana place kicker Nico Radicic kicks a field goal as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Back on October 11, it was Indiana who walked into Autzen Stadium and beat Oregon 30-20 in a game that probably wasn't as close as the final score indicated. That's not to say Notre Dame would walk in and easily do the same, but it is to make clear that Oregon isn't this impossible place to get a victory in.

However, what would come after potentially winning a first round game for Notre Dame?

Avoiding Ohio State Early On

Ohio State takes the field against Texas in 202 — Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day leads his team onto the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If Notre Dame were to win that hypothetical matchup with Oregon, then (as the rankings sit today) a date with Ohio State would come in the quarterfinals, in the Rose Bowl.

In all likelihood, you'd have to beat Ohio State at some point in order to win the championship anyway, but simply in terms of making it the farthest in the playoff, it's logical to want to avoid the Buckeyes as long as you can.

I'm not saying you have to be scared of them, but let's be real, they're the most impressive team in college football this season and have simply owned Notre Dame, winning games over the Irish in each of the last three seasons.

Other Potential Path for Notre Dame

If Notre Dame were to get the 10 seed instead of nine, and Ohio State were to run the table and be No. 1, then you're not looking at a potential trip to Pasadena for the Irish.

Instead, you're getting the No. 7 vs. No. 10 game in the first round, and a date with No. 2. Indiana sits in that No. 2 spot now, but in all likelyhood the winner of the SEC championship would take that over if it finishes the year with just one loss.

Yes, Texas A&M did sneak out a victory at Notre Dame Stadium this September, but its safe to say the Fighting Irish defense is now nowhere near what it was back then, in a good way. Notre Dame might not be favored, but it's path to victory would be more clear than it would against Ohio State.

Afterall, Notre Dame played in that No. 7 vs. No. 10 game last year before going to the Sugar Bowl and knocking off Georgia.

If Notre Dame falls to No. 10 or 11, you're potentially looking at games at Ole Miss or Texas Tech in the first round. For my money, those are easier trips than to Oregon, although certainly not cakewalks by any means.

Couple that with a second and third round dates against someone other than Ohio State, and the path to another National Championship appearance doesn't feel that crazy for a team that started the year 0-2.